Quiz 2 Flashcards
The new deal: government involvement in housing
FHA formed in 1934 radically changed mortgage contract to facilitate homebuyer demand by extending mortgage contract to 30 years, lowered down payment, eliminated balloon payments at maturity by introducing amortization of principle balance. FHA also guaranteed standard mortgages
Why was Fannie Mae created?
Formed in 1938 Fannie Mae was created to augment mortgage capital and accelerated mortgage origination by purchasing FHA insured mortgages loans to free up capital on bank balance sheets
Evolution of Fannie Mae
1938: formed to augment mortgage market
1954: equity is partially owned by private investors
1968: government incentive to remove Fannie’s debt on its balance sheet so they split off Ginnie Mae which became a government agency with full faith and credit of the US government and Fannie became a private shareholder owned company designated as a GSE
1970: listed on NYSE
1981: sell pass-through securities to augment ability to purchase mortgages
Fannie Mae Pass-through security
Pass through security allowed investors to receive a share of the cash flows from the mortgages based on their percentage ownership of the mortgage loan. Mortgages placed into a trust and financed by a private investor so that Fannie could guarantee the payments of the mortgage and private investors received the mortgage payments. Eliminate interest rate and prepayment risk
Why was Freddie Mac created?
Created in 1970 because Congress wanted competition for Fannie. Identical business model to Fannie:
Bought mortgages from financial firms
Funded with private capital
Implicit government guarantee because of GSE status
Freddie primarily purchased mortgages from savings and loan corporations whereas Fannie purchased from commercial banks
Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE)
Charter authorized by Congress, still privately managed but the president nominates the board of directors, it has special lending and guarantee businesses. Special funding cost advantage over banks, can raise capital at a much lower rate than banks can. There is also no regulatory risk limit on banks investing in GSE’s
Implicit guarantee for GSE
Debt capital providers implicitly believe that the government will provide support to GSE’s if necessary because they are regarded as the US government in disguise.
Why is the implicit guarantee risky
Implicit guarantee gives GSE’s a high credit rating despite massive leverage (high risk in volatile markets)
Fannie & Freddie business operations
Buy loans from mortgage originators
Pool mortgages in a trust
GSE receives a fee for guaranteeing performance or underlying mortgages
Sell interest in the pool as MBS
Take on credit risk that the guarantee fee will cover any default losses
Retain 100% of the mortgage pool credit risk
Pre 2008 Pass-through securities NOT on balance sheet but risk remained
Fannie & Freddie competitive funding advantage
Investors believe that they have an Implicit guarantee and would be bailed out if necessary, not subject to bankruptcy code, debt issuances are exempt from state and local income tax (big one) for the bond holder and corporate profits are also tax exempt. have a lower regulatory burden compared to banks
What is a conforming mortgage
Mortgages that conform to the guidelines set by the GSE’s
Mortgage amount: size limited to $584000 or less
Priority: must be first lien
Credit score: borrower must meet minimum standard
Loan-to-value: property value must be enough to support the principle of the loan
Loan-to-income: borrower must have enough income to service the mortgage payments
non-conforming: jumbo vs sub-prime
Non-conforming: don’t conform to GSE standards so they pay a premium —> jumbo and subprime
Jumbo: loan size too large for GSE’s to purchase
Subprime: credit rating below standard so default risk is much higher
Who regulates Fannie and Freddie?
Housing and urban development (HUD): primary regulator
Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness act: 1992
Federal housing finance agency (FHFA): created during 2008 housing act
Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
Regulated equity requirement and allowable leverage for Fannie and Freddie
Monitored mortgage purchases so GSE’s we’re aligned with HUD’s affordable housing goals
HUD lending goals for moderate income households
Set goals for the fraction of loans that went to lower income mortgage borrowers
Increased those goals during the housing bubble because the subprime market was so large
Eventually decreased those goals post 2008 because of the crises that they helped fuel
What was the community reinvestment act (CRA)
Required federal regulators to encourage banks to serve all communities including low and moderate income neighbourhoods if they were chartered and could not partake in redlining
Statutory capital requirements of Fannie and Freddie
40x leverage for mortgages held which is significantly higher than banks
222x levered for the credit guarantee. Historical default rate is low but the cushion is razor thin.
Regulators could not increase statutory capital requirements only congress could (lobbying helped)
Moral hazard for GSE shareholders led to major political donations to influence congress not to raise capital requirements.
What are the risks for mortgage lenders?
Default risk
Prepayment risk
Interest rate risk
Real estate risk
Liquidity risk
What is the default risk for mortgage lenders?
Mortgage borrower does not pay the loan
Mortgage lender faces exposure to the real estate market through default recover. If the recovery rate is low and default rate is high that’s a massive drag on cash flows for the originator
Prepayment risk for mortgage lenders?
Mortgage lender has to reinvest capital prepaid at the prevailing rate which is likely lower than the interest rate earned from the mortgage. Prepayment means the lender earns less on interest over the long term
Interest rate risk for mortgage lender
Most mortgages are fixed rate over the lifetime of the loan but interest rates can change so if interest rates rise but the rate of the loan doesn’t that’s a significant loss for the lender. The value of the mortgage contract changes significantly with changing interest rates.
Real estate risk for mortgage lender
Lower real estate values increase likelihood of default
Lower collateral value decreases recover and increases expected losses
Liquidity risk for mortgage lender
mortgages are illiquid assets and can be expensive to liquidate
Mortgage lenders wanting to sell mortgages may face significant costs (fire sale) if there is a liquidity crunch
What was the demise of Fannie and Freddie?
Equity holders had an incentive to use massive leverage because they made a bunch of money when the market was good. Politicians pushed regulators to use the GSE’s for social good but with the leverage this increased the risks and when the housing market speculative boom ended up busting and volatility spiked GSE guarantees caused massive losses.
Reasons the housing crisis was caused by a bubble
No mortgages were designed to fail, all of the existing financial instruments had been widely used for several years, regulation had not changed for several years, information was easily accessible and risks were clear. It was a price bubble that caused the meltdown
Why equity will fall at US banks: The Bear Case
Regulators and politicians punish existing equity holders at stressed banks (think CS UBS merger), regulators focus on balance sheet stability and loss absorption, highly levered firms are fragile and equity holders are paid out last,
Why bank equity will rise: The Bullish Case
Franchise value will raise stock price of bank stocks already depressed, US needs a healthy banking system and society has protected them in the past, SVB and signature failures led to Fed and Treasury protective action to reduce the spread, FDIC costs high leading to regulatory forbearance, liquidations are costly so system will do whatever it takes to prevent them
What is the FDIC? What does it do?
Independent non-profit government agency founded in 1933 to provide additional stability to the banking system that charges banks a premium to insure up to $250000 of deposits through the deposit insurance fund. Also inspects, monitors and examines banks to manage risk of losses
What is deposit insurance?
Protection in the event a banks assets are deficient to repay depositors. Insurance pays the insured depositors losses from the bank failure
Drawbacks of deposit insurance
Creates moral hazard for risk taking at banks for depositors insulated from investment risk (heads you win tails FDIC loses)
Depositors are unconcerned with the risk of the banks only care about interest on the deposits
Banks have an incentive to use less equity and take options it’s on the insurer
Benefits of deposit insurance
Centralized monitoring of banks
Coordinated monitoring reduces costs
Efficient monitoring for party insuring depositor
Before deposit insurance
Depositors had incentives to monitor bank operations but assymetric information increased the likelihood of bank panic and a bank run
What did the FDIC do during the great financial crisis?
Increased line of credit with treasury to address solvency issues in the banking system
Have unlimited tied FDIC insurance for non-interest bearing transaction accounts
Imposed premiums on banks to replenish depleted DIF
Temporary liquidity guarantee program
FDIC debt guarantee program
FDIC guaranteed (fully backed) new debt issuances for a fee
Banks able to borrow at extremely attractive terms relative to the market rate of interest
Transaction account Guarantee program
Fully insured non-interest bearing accounts
Depositors able to avoid FDIC insurance limits if they accept zero interest
What is the Systemic risk exception
Gives the FDIC ability to do whatever is necessary to stabilize the banking system
Ex: AIG bailout, citibank and B of A special assistance
What is the national depositor preference law?
Limit the cost of failed banks on the FDIC by giving depositors superior claims to creditors in bankruptcy ie depositors were senior to creditors which gave depositors a higher recovery rate in bankruptcy