quiz 1

Question 1

Framing

Answer 1

• Identify a Topic or category of importance for the future
• Define the interaction of the System in play
• Build Consensus on goals and objectives
• Contextualize your topic

Question 2

Scanning

Answer 2

• Gather signals of change from “Experts”
• Assess the reliability of the signal source
• Interpret the meaning of the signal
• Synthesize the information from a systems perspective

Question 3

Degest

Answer 3

• Demography
• Economy
• Government
• Environment
• Society
• technology

Question 4

State of Future Index

Answer 4

• A composite index to measure progress
• Expert polling via Real-Time Delphi process
• Looks back 20 years, forward 10 years
• ~ 700+ global experts
• 28 indicators Updated continuously

Question 5

SOFI Index Trend

Answer 5

Going up

Question 6

SOFI winning

Answer 6

Poverty
Mortality Rate (Infant)
Literacy Rates

Question 7

SOFI Losing

Answer 7

CO2 emissions
Renewable Freshwater
Forest Area

Question 8

Millenium Project Global Challenges

Answer 8

15 goals

1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

Question 9

UN Millenium Goals

Answer 9

8 goals
Eradicate Extreme Poverty and hunger
achieve universal primary education
reduce child mortality

Question 10

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Answer 10

No poverty
no hunger
Gender Equality

Question 11

Assessing the Source
Primary Questions
Methods to Validate

Answer 11

Primary Questions to Consider:
1. How knowledgeable is the source?
2. Is sufficient evidence provided?
3. Does the source have any bias?
Methods to Validate your source:
1. Scuttlebutt: listen in on what others are saying about your source (blogs, etc)
2. Laddering – step down one or more rungs into your source’s references

Question 12

Assessing the source:

Primary Questions

Answer 12

Primary Questions to Consider:

1. How knowledgeable is the source?
2. Is sufficient evidence provided?
3. Does the source have any bias?

Question 13

Scuttlebutt

Answer 13

listen in on what others are saying about your source (blogs, etc)

Question 14

Laddering

Answer 14

step down one or more rungs into your source’s references

Question 15

Cognitive Constraints

Answer 15

• Factors that distort our perspective
• Selective perception (perceptual blindness)
o The more focused we are on a challenge, the more likely we are to overlook obvious information
• Educated Incapacity
o “Knowing so much about what you know that you are the last person to see it differently” Edie Weiner, Futurist
o “Each of us responds, not to the world, but to our image of the world.” Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
• Anchoring
o Confirmation bias
o Affinity bias
o Availability bias

Question 16

Bridge Technology

Answer 16

One that conceptually or technically connects an old familiar innovation with an emergent innovation usually one with high perceived complexity or incompatibility

Question 17

Creative Destruction

Answer 17

Creative Destruction  
•	The process of transformation that accompanies disruptive innovation
•	Can cause temporary economic distress
o	Jobs loss in disrupted sectors
o	Obsolescence of work skills
o	Loss of income or return on investment

Question 18

Wild Cards

Answer 18

Wildcards
Aka black swans
1. The event is a surprise
2. The event has a major impact

Question 19

4 Types of Capital

Answer 19

4 Types of Capital  
•	Human capital
•	Financial capital
•	Manufactured capital
•	Natural capital
o	The value (cost) of nautral capital has historically been externalized