Question 6: Vavreck's Model and using it to explain volatility during primary campaigns

Question 1

Discovery

Answer 1

1. High volume of media coverage for new candidates, much of it positive
   
   • Lots of exposure – among politically aware voters
2. Voters know little about many candidates (Perry, Cain)
   
   • Few predispositions to resist new information

Question 2

Scrutiny

Answer 2

• Media coverage grows negative, become more “two-sided”

Question 3

Decline

Answer 3

• Loss of support as negative messages turn opinion against candidate

Question 4

What does this mean?

Answer 4

Media coverage may be a more plausible explanation of volatility in polls during primary elections because in the discovery faze, people know little about the candidates so their predispositions do not resist them from liking a candidate. After the discovery phase, scrutiny of candidates becomes more two sided, in Zaller’s model, this is the polarization of the media, making predisposition very important. There are several candidates in a primary campaign, and once discovered, voters will align with the candidates that reinforce their predispositions. Volatility can occur because not all candidates go through this process at the same time. As candidates are discovered, their support increases, but as more and more come out about them, people’s predispositions either make the candidate stronger or weaker to individual voters. Generally, people already have predisposition about issues in the political realm, but during a primary election people do not know enough about candidates to have predispositions. They cannot turn to the political elites automatically to reinforce what they want to hear because those people running are the political elites. Therefore, in primary elections, predispositions play a lesser role than in general political issues and this causes volatility.

Question 5

For Walker… (Based on graph in study guide)

Answer 5

As for Walker’s rise and fall: Walker started off low in the polls because no one knew who he was. As he began to be discovered, people’s predispositions did not hold them back from liking him in the beginning. As more and more coverage turns negative, during the scrutiny phase, as two sided opinions emerge about the candidate, support declines somewhat. And the final face, decline, occurs when the candidates oppositions and the media turn negative in message and in coverage.