Quantifying risk Flashcards
What calculate to Quantify risk case control
Odds ratio
What calculate to quantify risk of cohort study
Relative risk
Odds ratio
Vertical: OR= ad/bc
Relative risk
Horizontal: RR= a/(a+b)/ c/(c+d)
Or
Incidence of exposed/ incidence of unexposed
Attributable risk
AR= Exposed risk - unexposed risk
If prevalence is low, then …
OR = RR
Absolute risk reduction
Difference in risk with intervention compared to control
ARR= Cumulative incidence placebo - cumulative incidence treatment
Numbers needed to treat
1/ ARR
Numbers needed to harm
1/AR
Cohort study
Start with exposure look for diff outcome
Case control study
Start with outcome and look at diff exposure
Case control bias
Recall bias
Cross sectional study
Assess exposures and outcome same time
Cross sectional study measures
Disease prevalence
Show risk factor association with disease
Does NOT establish causality
Phase 1
Is safe?
Phase 2
Does it work?
Treatment efficacy, optimal dosing, and adverse effects
Phase 3
Is it good or better?
Compare treatment to current standard of care
Phase 4
Detect rare or long term adverse effects
Sensitivity
TP/(TP+FN) or 1-false negative rate
SN-N-OUT= When Negative rule OUT disease
True positive rate
Probability when test positive, disease is present
When use high sensitivity test and what mean?
Screening disease with low prevalence, high sensitivity indicate low false negative rate
Specificity
TN/ (TN+FP) or 1-false positive rate
SP-P-IN = when Positive rule IN disease
True negative rate
Probability when test negative , disease is absent
When use high specificity test and what highly specific test mean?
Confirmation after positive screening test
Highly specific indicate low false positive rate
If increase sensitivity, then what happen to negative predictive value
Increase
Decrease specificity does what to positive predictive value?
Decrease
Raising cutoff point does what?
Increase specificity and PPV
Decrease sensitivity and NPV
Decreasing cutoff point does what?
Increase sensitivity and NPV
Decrease specificity and PPV
Incidence rate eqn
new cases/ # ppl at risk
Prevalence eqn
existing cases/ total # ppl in pop
Precision
consistency and reproducibility (reliability)
Increased precision does what?
Decrease st dev
Increase statistical power
Random error does what?
Decrease precision
Accuracy
Validity of measure
Systematic error does what?
Decrease accuracy