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1
Q

Conditional heteroskedasticity is

A

residual variance related to level of X’s

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2
Q

Serial correlation is

A

correlated residuals

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3
Q

Multicollinearity is

A

two or more X’s are correlated

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4
Q

Effect of conditional heteroskedasticity

A

Type I errors

high t stat, caused by low std errors

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5
Q

Effect of serial correlation

A

Type I errors

positive correlation

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6
Q

Effect of multicollinearity

A

type II errors

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7
Q

Detection of conditional heteroskedasticity

A

Breusch-Pagan Test

Chi-Square Test

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8
Q

Detection of serial correlation

A

Durbin-Watson test

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9
Q

Detection of multicollinearity

A

Conflicting t and F stats

Correlations among ind variables if k=2

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10
Q

Correcting conditional skedasticity

A

white-correct std errors

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11
Q

Correction serial correlation

A

Hansen method

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12
Q

Correcting multicollinearity

A

Drop a correlated variable

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13
Q

Functional Form Misspecifications

A
  • important variables omitted
  • variables not transformed properly
  • data pooled improperly
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14
Q

Time-Series Misspecification

A
  • X is lagged Y with serial correlation present
  • Forecasting the past
  • Measurement error
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15
Q

Probit model

A

estimates probability of default given values of X based on normal dist

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16
Q

Logit Models

A

estimates probability of default given values of X based on logistic dist (computationally easier than normal dist).

Logistic dist NOT logarthimic

17
Q

Discriminant models

A

produces a score or rank used to classify into categories

ex- bankrupt, not bankrupt

18
Q

Economic Significance

A

not significant just because of statistical significance

-commissions, taxes, risk, etc.

19
Q

If a time series is mean reverting

A

the value of the dependent variable tends to fall when above its mean; and rise when below its mean

20
Q

Mean Reverting Level Formula

A

b0/ (1 - b1)

21
Q

Forecasting Accuracy of ARCH measured by

A

root of mean squared error.

Use model with lowest RMSE based on out-of-sample forecasting

22
Q

Without a mean reverting level, the time series is

A

non-stationary

23
Q

Dickey-Fuller Tests for

A

unit root

24
Q

Dickey Fuller Test method

A
subtract x(t-1) from both sides; first differencing
where g1 = (b1 - 1)

If there is a unit root in AR(1) model , g1 will be 0.