Public Health Flashcards
Study design where the frequency of disease and frequency of risk related factors are assessed in the present.
Cross sectional study - “What is happening”
Disease prevalence but does not assess causality
Study design that compares a group of people with disease to a group of people without disease. Looks to see if odds of prior exposure or risk factor differs by disease state
Case-control study - “what happened”
ODDs ratio
ex) people with COPD had higher odds of a smoking history than those without COPD
Study design that compares a group with a given exposure or risk factor to a group without such exposure. Looks to see if exposure or risk factor is associated with later development of disease.
Cohort study - “Who will develop the disease” or “who developed the disease”
Can be prospective or retrospective
Relative risk
ex) smokers have a higher risk of developing COPD than nonsmokers
Clinical trial phases: phase I
think “SWIM”
Phase I -“is it SAFE”. Small number of healthy volunteers or pt with dz of interest. Assess safety,toxicity, pharmkinetics, pharmdynamics
clinical trial : phase II
think “SWIM”
Phase II- “Does it WORK”. Moderate numbers of patients with disease of interest. Assess treatment efficacy, optimal dosing, and adverse effects
Clinical trial: phase III
think “SWIM”
Phase III- “IMPROVEMENT?” . Large number of pt with placebo and then with treatment. Compares new treatment to current standard of care
Clinical trial: Phase IV
think “SWIM”
Phase IV: “Can it stay in MARKET”. This is after being approved. Detects rare or long term effects
Sensitivity
True positive rate. Probability that when a dz is present then the rest is positive. SCREENING test
If negative then rules OUT a disease. Higher sensitivity has a lower false negative rate.
TP/(TP + FN) = 1- FN rate
Specificity
True negative rate. Probability that when the disease is absent the test is negative. CONFIRMATION test
When positive it rules IN a disease. Higher specificity means lower false positive rate
=TN/(TN+FP) = 1-FP rate
positive predictive value
probability that a person who has a positive test result actually has the disease
PPV= TP/(TP + FP)
varies directly with pretest probability. High pretest probability results in a high PPV
negative predictive value
probability that a negative rest actually does not have the disease
NPV=TN/(TN+FN)
varies indirectly with pretest probability. high pretest probability results in low NPV
Likelihood ratio
Likelihood that a given result would be expected in a patient with the target disorder compared to the likelihood that the same result would be expected in a patient without the target disorder
LR+ >10 and or LR- 0.1 indicates a useful diagnostic test
LR+=sensitivity/(1-specificity)=TP rate/FP rate
LR-=1-sensitivity/specificity= FN rate/TN rate
Odds ratio
Odds of a certain exposure given an event vs the odds of exposure in the absence of that event. Used in case control studies
OR=ad/bc
Relative risk (RR)
the # times risk of cancer in the exposed vs the unexposed. Used in cohort studies
RR=risk in exposure/risk in unexposed
RR=((a/a+b)/(c/c+d))
RR=1 there is not association between exposure and disease
RR>1 there is an association that causes increase in dz
RR<1 there is an association that causes decrease in dz
Attributable risk (AR)
The difference in risk between exposed and unexposed groups
Risk in exposed - risk in unexposed
AR=(a/a+b)-(c/c+d)
Relative risk reduction (RRR)
The proportion in risk reduction attributed to the intervention as compared to a control
RRR=1-RR
Absolute risk reduction (ARR)
The difference in risk (not the proportion) attributable to the intervention as compared to a control
ARR=((c/c+d) - (a/a+b))
Number needed to treat (NNT)
Number needed to treat for 1 patient to benefit
low number is better
NNT=1/ARR
Number needed to harm (NNH)
number needed to be exposed for 1 patient to be harmed
high number is better
NNH=1/AR
Incidence
new cases/#at risk
prevelaence
existing cases/total#of people in a population
increase prevalence causes increase in PPV and decreases in NPV
Precision
reliability
The consistency and reproduciblity of a test. The absence of random variation in a test
Increase precision causes decrease in standard deviation
increase in precision causes increase in statistical power
Accuracy
validity
systemic error decreased accuracy in a test
Berkson bias
study population selected from hospital is less healthy than general population
type of selection bias
Non response bias
participating subjects differ from non respondents in meaningful ways
type of selection bias
Hawthorne effect
participants change behavior upon awareness of being observed
measurement bias
use placebo group to avoid
Procedure bias
avoid with blinding and use of placebo
Observer expectancy bias
avoid with blinding and use of placebo
Lead time bias
early detection is confused with increased survival
avoid by measuring back end survival (Adjust survival according to the severity of disease at the time of diagnosis)