Project Uncertainty Management (L15)

Question 1

What is uncertainty make up off

Answer 1

Risk - possible unfavorable outcomes
Opportunity - possible favorable outcomes

Question 2

4 types of uncertainty

Answer 2

1. Ambiguity uncertainty
2. Inherent variability
3. Event uncertainty
4. Systemic uncertainty

Question 3

Ambiguity uncertainty

Answer 3

Lack of complete/perfect knowledge
Can be reduced/resolved over time

Question 4

Inherent variability

Answer 4

Always happens but the degree is variable

Question 5

Event uncertainty

Answer 5

Events that may or may not happen

Question 6

Systemic uncertainty

Answer 6

Dependencies and complex relationships

Question 7

What does PUMPs stand for?

Answer 7

Performance Uncertainty Management Processes

Question 8

PUMP Phases

Answer 8

1. Define
2. Focus
3. Identify
4. Structure
5. Clarify ownership
6. Quantify
7. Evaluate

Question 9

PUMP Phase 6: Quantification
2 modes of analysis

Answer 9

1st pass analysis: Sizing of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic terms
Subsequent passes: Refining earlier quantification of uncertainty

Question 10

PUMP Phase 6: Quantification
Key steps (5)

Answer 10

1. Ordering of uncertainty sources in terms of important
2. Clarifying associated conditions for these uncertainties
3. Data or elicitation is used to size the uncertainty
4. Refine sizing
5. Repeat steps 2-4 for each uncertainty, updating priorities if needed

Question 11

Elicitation: Simple Scenario Approach:
Defined Scenarios (3)

Answer 11

1. Pessimistic outcome scenario
2. Optimistic outcome scenario
3. Intermediate outcome scenarios

Question 12

Elicitation: Simple Scenario Approach:
1. Pessimistic outcome scenario

Answer 12

Locate pessimistic end of the range of possible outcomes
Effectively define point at which 10% or 90% will exceed depending on the case

Question 13

Elicitation: Simple Scenario Approach:
2. Optimistic outcome scenario

Answer 13

Estimate a complementary optimistic outcome
Perceived chance of being exceeded by 90% or 10%

Question 14

Elicitation: Simple Scenario Approach:
3. Intermediate outcome scenarios

Answer 14

Is 1 interval sufficient or are more required?
If more are required, define values for intermediate scenarios
Ensure distances between each pairs of adjacent scenario values are equal
Assign probabilities to each interval

Question 15

Elicitation:
Fractile Methods

Answer 15

Expert is elicited to define CDF
0%, 50%, 100% values initially defined
Divide the 2 intervals in 2
Keep subdividing as required and fit smooth curve to resulting CDF

Question 16

PUMP Phase 7: Evaluation
Main stages (5)

Answer 16

1. Defining an appropriate starting point based on source dependencies
2. Specifying dependence between sources
3. Combining sources using mathematical operators
4. Presenting results of the model
5. Diagnosing the implications of these results

Question 17

PUMP Phase 7: Evaluation
Specifying dependence & combing subsets

Answer 17

Use Monte Carlo methods
Can use same modelling processes as fault trees