Project risk management Flashcards
What are the two determinants of risk?
- Operating risk
- Financial risk
What is operating risk?
Volatility results driven by the company’s operational structure. It is measured by operating leverage
How is operating risk measured?
By operating leverage = CM/EBIT
What is financial risk?
It is driven by the company's financial structure measured by financial leverage: EBIT/NI It has 3 components: 1- Credit risk (leverage effect) 2- Interest rate risk 3- Currency risk
What are the three components of financial risk?
1- Credit risk (leverage effect)
2- Interest rate risk
3- Currency risk
For what types of scenario is NPV used?
For stable ones with high performance stability since the discount rate is constant
What are the approaches for risk assessment are used for certain scenarios?
- NPV, IRR and adjusted approaches
What are the approaches for risk assessment are used for uncertain scenarios?
- Statistics, probability (decision tree and montecarlo), real options
What is the Montecarlo approach?
Simulation of statistical approach in which each combination results on an unique NPV
What is the decision tree?
It is recommended in complex projects in which decisions are taken in sequence and are interdependent:
- Different phases
- Uncertain flows
- Implementation is conditioned by external trends