Probability Flashcards
Probability
of ways an event can happen / # of possible outcomes
How likely or unlikely an event is to happen
closer to 0=unlikely
closer to 1=likely
#sucess :# of total outcomes ( Success + Failures)
Conditional probabilities
Probabilty of A occuring if B has already happened
P(A If B)
Marginal probability
Probability of a single event P(Heart attack)
union
one event happens or another event happens
p( A or B)
intersection
both happen at the same time
P(A and B)
complements
event does not happen
P(not A )
disjointed events
events that cannot both happen
-Ex: Heart attack and no heart attack
complement
P ( not A )
1- P(A)
additive rule
P( A or B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A and B)
multiplicative rule
P (A And B)= P (A if B) X P (B) =
P ( B if A) * P(A)
A and B are independent: P (A and B)= P(A) * P(B)
conditional probabilities
Probanility of A occuring if B occured
P ( A if B)= P(A and B)/ P (B)
independence
When one event happening does not affect another
P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)
odds ( Calculating)
success : # failure
Odds interpret
Odds of 3:1 mean that for every 3 favorable outcomes, there is 1 unfavorable outcome.
So, a favorable outcome is 3 times more likely than an unfavorable one.
odds association
OR =1 implies no association
odds of the event occurring in one group are the same as the odds of the event occurring in the other group