Primaries/Caucuses

Question 1

Post-MFC, which year had the highest turnout for Presidential primaries (not incl. caucuses) and what was this (in terms of % of the VAP)?

Answer 1

2008

30.4%

Question 2

In terms of % of the VAP, what was the estimated turnout for the 2016 Presidential primaries (not incl. caucuses)?

Answer 2

29.0%

Question 3

Since 1980, what was the total no. of non-incumbent eventual nominees who won…

…the Iowa caucus?
…the New Hampshire primary?

Name the candidate(s) who became their party’s presumptive nominee without winning either of the Iowa caucus or the NH primary.

Answer 3

8/14

9/14

Just one: Bill Clinton.

Question 4

Name the candidate(s) in the last four election cycles (i.e. 2004-16) who became their party’s presumptive nominee without being the frontrunner at the end of the IP (in terms of opinion poll support).

Answer 4

John Kerry (2004)
Barack Obama (2008)
John McCain (2008)

Question 5

What was the turnout in the 2016 Iowa caucus? (in terms of % of the VAP).

Answer 5

15.7%

Question 6

Of the _ former-presidents who achieved renomination since 1976, _ of them beat their opponent in the G.E; these _ nominees were largely unchallenged in the primaries (all of them gained over __% of the vote in the primary - not incl. caucuses - competitions).

The other _ didn’t fare as well and didn’t beat their opponent during the G.E; this was largely due to the fact that they struggled to muster support in the primary contests, which shows that…

The _ former-presidents who claimed renomination but failed to win the G.E. were… (+ state what % of the vote each of them received during the primaries!).

Answer 6

Of the 7 former-presidents who achieved renomination since 1976, 4 of them beat their opponent in the G.E; these 4 nominees were largely unchallenged in the primaries (all of them gained over 89% of the vote in the primary - not incl. caucuses - competitions).

The other 3 didn’t fare as well and didn’t beat their opponent during the G.E; this was largely due to the fact that they struggled to muster support in the primary contests, which shows that *their is a strong link between success in the primaries and success in the G.E. as having difficultly to - in spite of their incumbency advantage - secure the renomination is a sign of weakness. In addition, a candidate’s weaknesses are exposed if they face serious competition during the primaries (e.g. Bill Clinton re-used Pat Buchanan’s “read my lips: no new taxes” quip to great effect against H W Bush).

The 3 former-presidents who claimed renomination but failed to win the G.E. were:

Ford (53%)
Carter (51%)
H W Bush (72%)

Question 7

The last president who attempted to be renominated by their party to stand or a second term and failed to do this was __ __ in the year __.

Answer 7

Chester Arthur

1884

Question 8

In the 2008 p/c contests, the young (__-__ years of age) were underrepresented by __ (relative to…), which is - staggeringly - considered to be…

Answer 8

In the 2008 p/c contests, the young (18-29 years of age) were underrepresented by 9.8% (relative to the proportion of young people who make up the VAP), which is - staggeringly - considered to be the smallest under-representation in the history of post-MFC primary/caucuses; the figure is usually around 20%

Question 9

Before the MFC, party officials were given the power to choose who was appointed as the party’s Presidential nominee; primaries and caucuses were advisory and not binding. A very undemocratic example of this is..

Answer 9

…the DNC’s decision to appoint Hubert Humphrey - who participated in none of the primaries/caucuses - as the Democrat nominee in 1968.

Question 10

List four factors which influence the turnout at primary competitions.

Answer 10

The type of primary used in the state
Demographics
Competitiveness of the race
Whether the race is decided or not

Question 11

How many Republican candidates stood for nomination?

Answer 11

17!