Primaries & Caucuses Flashcards
wWhat are some features of invisible primaries?
- candidate announcements
- televised party debates
- fundraising
- higher national name recognition for lesser known candidates
- endorsements
Why could it be argued that invisible primaries are important?
- the candidate leading in the polls at the end of the IP is very often the one eventually chose after the primaries
- some candidates drop out during this period (e.g. 15 democrats dropped out before the first state voted in 2020)
- critical for fundraising as primaries & caucuses are packed into the early months of the election year
- first impressions in the televised debate are important
Why could it be argued that invisible primaries are not important?
- it is possible to win the IP but go on to lose the nomination e.g. democratic Hilary Clinton in 2007-8
- doesn’t test campaigning skills as well as primaries & caucuses do
- the focus is mainly on performance (debates & polls) rather than policies
Where are primaries held?
in mid to large population states e.g. California, New York etc
Where are caucuses held?
in some small to mid population states & geographically large states with small populations e.g. Iowa, Nevada
Who can participate in primaries or caucuses?
Any registered voter can
What are the two main functions of primaries and caucuses?
- to show popularity for candidates among ordinary voters
- to choose delegates to go to the national party conventions
Who chooses whether to hold a primary or a caucus?
state parties
What are the two different ways to classify primaries?
By who is allowed to vote in them
By how delegates are awarded in them
What is an open primary?
A primary in which any registered voter can vote in either party’s primary
What is a closed primary?
A primary in which only registered Democrats can vote in the democratic primary & vice versa
What is a modified primary?
Like closed primaries but allow registered independents to vote in either party’s primary
What is a proportional primary?
A primary in which delegates are awarded to the candidates in proportion to the votes they get
What is a winner takes all primary?
A primary in which whoever gets the most votes in the primary wins all the state’s delegates (allowed only in the rep party)
Which state traditionally holds the first presidential caucuses?
Iowa
How is the turnout for caucuses?
They often have a very low turnout e.g. 2108 voters in 2012 rep caucuses
What type of voters do caucuses attract?
more ideological voters
Why is turnout in the Iowa caucus unrepresentative?
Iowa is more than 90% white
Caucus’ record of predicting the eventual nominee is ______
mixed
E.g. Mayor Pete Buttigieg won the 2020 Democratic caucuses but nominee was Biden
Give an example of a crucial caucus
Obama’s victory over Clinton in the 2008 democratic caucuses
New ____________ traditional holds the first presidential primary
Hampshire
The New Hampshire primary often attracts a ______ turnout
high e.g. 42% in 2020
Is it possible for a nominee to lose the NH primary but still win the party nomination?
Yes
e.g. Biden, Democrats, 2020
Why is winning the NH primary beneficial for a candidate?
It brings a boost in opinion poll numbers, media coverage & money
What is an incumbent?
What is an incumbent?
A person who currently holds an office
why is little to no attention paid to primaries incumbent presidents are in?
They typically win e.g. Obama 92% in 2012 Democratic primaries - Trump over 90% in the 2020 Rep primaries
Give an example of an incumbent president facing a serious primary challenge?
Jimmy Carter facing Senator Kennedy in the 1980 Democratic primaries
Bush facing Pat Buchanan in the 1992 primaries
Both won the primaries but lost the election due to political damage in the primaries
What is the typical voter turnout in primaries?
low - between 20-30%
Varies from state to state in 2020 46% in Montana, 9% in Iowa
Is turnout higher in primaries or caucuses?
primaries
What are some factors that affect turnout in primaries & caucuses?
demography - higher turnout amongst the more educated e.g. higher-income & elderly voters
type of primaries - open primaries tend to have higher turnout i.e. more eligible voters
timing - primaries held after a nomination has effectively been decided attract lower turnout than when those held when the race is still open
Why are primaries considered important?
- The presidential candidates emerge during them
- A large number of candidates are eliminated by them
- They attract a large amount of media attention
- Can boost name recognition for lesser know candidates e.g. Obama v Clinton - Obama behind in national polls but won Iowa & got ahead
- They test presidential skills e.g. oratorical, presentational, organisational etc
Why aren’t primaries considered important?
- Primaries often merely confirm decisions made during the ‘invisible primary’ i.e. the ones leading in the polls at the start of primaries are eventually chosen
- Televised debates (the media) are usually of more importance, less focus on policies
- Many presidential skills aren’t tested e.g. the ability to compromise, work with Congress etc
Why did Obama get ahead in Iowa? (2012)
Due to incessant campaigning in Iowa for over 80 days
What are the advantages of primaries?
- Increased levels of participation by voters
- Increased choice of candidates
- Process opened up to outside candidates e.g. Obama, Trump
- A difficult race for a difficult job
What are the disadvantages of primaries?
- Can lead to voter apathy i.e. the results seem to be obvious to the electorate so there is no need to vote
- Voters are often too unrepresentative
- Process is too long, too expensive, too dominated by the media
- Can develop into bitter personal battles
How can the nomination process be improved? (primaries & caucuses)
- Abolish caucuses and replace them with primaries
- Eliminate closed primaries to increase voter eligibility
- Hold a national primary
- Institute four regional primaries, held on the first Tuesday of March, April, May & June
What is super Tuesday?
A Tuesday in February or early March when a number of states coincide their presidential primaries & caucuses to try to gain influence e.g. increase turnout by raising national profile
