Presidential and Congressional Elections in the USA

Question 1

What is the Invisible Primary? What is the focus of this stage of the election? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 1

The Invisible Primary is the period between candidates declaring an intention to run for the presidency and the first primaries and caucuses. Candidates aim to raise funds, gain publicity, involve themselves in debates.

Question 2

What are constitutional requirements to run for the presidency? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 2

An individual must be an American-born citizen, must be at least 35 years old, must have lived in the US for 14 years, must not have served 2 terms in office already.

Question 3

What is the significance of being politically experienced and having a major party endorsement respectively when running to be President? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 3

Political experience: to understand and be adept at managing political situations is crucial. This may be through serving in the legislature or as a state governor.
Party endorsement: third party candidates do not succeed at entering the White House (see Gary Johnson, John Anderson, Pat Buchanan).

Question 4

What are important personal characteristics when running to be President? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 4

Majority of candidates tend to be white males (with Obama and Clinton being exceptions to this rule). Furthermore, being married is apparently significant, with there only ever being 1 bachelor President.

Question 5

What political requirements tend to determine the success of a candidate’s campaign? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 5

The ability to attract vast sums of money in support of a campaign, the ability to organise and coordinate their own campaign when running to be a party candidate, the ability to speak competently and appear presidential, the existence of relevant and appealing policies.

Question 6

What are strengths of the invisible primary? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 6

The invisible primary may increase democracy due to greater scrutiny and better analysis of candidate performance. Creates greater plurality of decision making. Allows increased voter participation in polling and fundraising. Can also root out poor candidates and identify frontrunners in an electoral process.

Question 7

What are weaknesses of the invisible primary? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 7

The invisible primary has no democratic vote to involve the electorate with, mainly focussed on contacting fundraisers. This is largely an elitist and exclusionary process taking place in the media and political bubbles. It is also a protracted and drawn out process, which may cause apathy among voters.

Question 8

What is the importance of newspaper articles/interviews and formal announcements respectively to the invisible primary process? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 8

Newspaper articles/interviews are significant as they begin to identify potential candidates, featuring these on shows to garner a media reputation.
Formal announcements see candidates announce their intention to run in order to begin accumulating a war chest of money which can gather support.

Question 9

What is the importance of opinion polls and televised debates respectively to the invisible primary? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 9

Opinion polls: identify regional and local perceptions of candidates, may generate momentum, show competition within parties.
Televised debates: identification of character and policies of given candidates.

Question 10

What is the importance of visits to key states and fundraising to the invisible primary process? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 10

Visits to key states: aims to create a prominent identity within states which may be crucial in the awarding of delegates/the general election campaign. Visits most contentious states.
Fundraising: prospective candidates begin to accumulate vast sums of money which may be used to finance their campaign and publicise their candidacy.

Question 11

What is a primary? What is a caucus? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 11

A primary is a state-based election to choose a party’s candidate for the preisdency. Shows support for a candidate among ordinary voters.
A caucus is a series of state-based meetings to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency. Tend to attract ideological voters and result in low turnouts.

Question 12

What states tend to hold primaries? What states tend to hold caucuses? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 12

States with a higher population density tend to hold primaries, while caucuses are reserved for states with thinly spread populations over a large area.

Question 13

What type of candidates do caucuses tend to favour? What 2016 example is there of this? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 13

Caucuses tend to favour more radical candidates than primaries do due to them attracting more militant party members.
In 2016, Bernie Sanders won 66% of the caucus vote compared to 33% for Clinton due to being more ideologically liberal.

Question 14

What is front loading? What is Super Tuesday? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 14

Front loading is when states schedule their primaries and caucuses earlier in a nomination cycle to increase their importance.
Super Tuesday is when a number of states coincide their primaries and caucuses on the same day as others in a regional bloc to gain influence.

Question 15

What are the advantages and disadvantages of front loading? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 15

Advantages: can lead to increased importance of a primary/caucus relative to the other states holding caucuses, can mean that a state is targeted by a candidate early.
Disadvantages: may marginalise states which hold theirs later if a nomination becomes a foregone conclusion.

Question 16

What is a closed primary? What is an open primary? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 16

A closed primary is a primary in whicn only affiliated party members can vote in their party’s primary. An open primary is a primary in which any registered voter can vote in any party’s primary.

Question 17

What is cross-over voting? Which type of primary is this associated with? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 17

Cross-over voting is where a voter affiliated with the Democrats chooses to vote Republican and vice-versa. Associated with open primaries.

Question 18

What are modified primaries? What do these allow? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 18

Modified primaries are contests in which affiliated party voters can only vote in those parties’ primaries, although registered independents can vote in the primary for either party.

Question 19

What are proportional primaries? What are winner-take-all primaries (and which party holds these)? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 19

Proportional primaries are primaries in which delegates are awarded in proportion to the votes a candidate recieves. Winner-take-all primaries are primaries in which the candidate with the highest vote share takes all delegates. ONLY USED BY REPUBLICANS.

Question 20

What happens to a party’s primaries if they have an incumbent president aiming to re-run for office? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 20

If a party has an incumbent President re-running for office, the primaries/caucuses take place with very little attention or focus, while some states will not hold primaries/caucuses at all.

Question 21

What % of the popular vote did Donald Trump take in Arizona in their 2016 primary? How many delegates did this result in him recieving? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 21

Trump took 46% of the Arizona popular vote in their Republican primary, leading to him taking all 58 delegates for this state.

Question 22

What % of the vote did Donald Trump recieve in the New Hampshire primary in 2016? What fraction of delegates did this translate to? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 22

Trump took 35% of the New Hampshire popular vote in 2016, translating into 11 of 23 delegates here.

Question 23

In how many states did Obama recieve < 90% of votes in the 2012 Democrat primaries? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 23

Obama recieved < 90% of the primary vote in 14 states in 2012.

Question 24

What % of the West Virginia primary vote did Obama recieve in 2012? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 24

Obama recieved only 59% of the West Virginia primary vote in 2012.

Question 25

What instances are there of incumbent presidents facing severe challenges from within their own party at primaries? What are the impacts of these? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 25

In 1976, Gerald Ford faced significant opposition from Ronald Reagan. Jimmy Carter faced a challenge from Edward Kennedy, while George H W Bush faced opposition from Pat Buchanan. This promotes major dissatisfaction and a lack of confidence in an incumbent, damaging their campaign.

Question 26

What was the result of the 2020 Democrat Iowa Caucus? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 26

Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 26%
Biden - 15%

Question 27

What are strengths of the new presidential nomination process? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 27

The new presidential nomination system increases participation by providing opportunities for all voters to select candidates, provides increased choice with more candidates on offer, allows a platform for candidates without a national reputation (Clinton, Carter, Obama), can galvanise candidates and prepare them for the stresses of the presidency.

Question 28

What are weaknesses of the new nomination process? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 28

The new nomination process is prolonged and drawn out, creating apathy. Voters tend to be unrepresentative of the majority of the population. The process is extremely expensive. Primaries may lead to the development of personal battles. Process is dominated by the media rather than personal perception of candidates.

Question 29

What is a super-delegate? Which party do these operate under? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 29

Super-delegates are automatically appointed and uncommitted delegates in the DEMOCRAT party, who sit by virtue of being an elected politician or senior party official.

Question 30

When have super-delegates been significant? Why? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 30

Super-delegates have been significant in 2008, when neither Obama nor Clinton reached the required absolute majority of state delegates to win a nomination. This meant that Obama was dependent on super-delegates to achieve his majority.

Question 31

How was the VP Candidate chosen until 1956? How was the VP Candidate chosen between 1960 and 1980? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 31

Until 1956, the delegates at the National Convention chose the VP Candidate. Between 1960 and 1980, the VP Candidate was chosen directly by the Presidential nominee for each party at a National Party Convention.

Question 32

How has the VP Candidate been selected/announced since 1984? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 32

Since 1984, the VP Candidate has tended tobe announced prior to a party’s National Convention. This initially began as just being the case for Democrats, although the practice was later adopted by the Republicans.

Question 33

Describe the balanced ticket strategy when choosing a Party’s VP Candidate. What is an example of this strategy? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 33

A ‘balanced ticket’ approach to selecting VP Candidates may mean balancing 2 candidates with contrasting demographic profiles (gender, age, ethncity), or may also refer to the ideology of the 2 candidates to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.
Obama/Biden and Biden/Harris are examples of this appproach.

Question 34

Describe the government-oriented strategy for choosing a VP Candidate. When has this appproach been adopted? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 34

At times, a VP candidate may be decided upon not due to what they may offer to a campaign, but for their likely skills in office. This has been seen with Bush/Cheney and Trump/Pence.

Question 35

Describe the party unity strategy that may be adopted when choosing a VP candidate. When has this been seen in the past? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 35

Party unity can be achieved by a candidate by choosing a VP candidate from an alternate ideological wing of their party or by choosing a previous rival from the battle to secure the Presidential nomination. This has been seen with Reagan choosing George H.W. Bush, as well as Biden/Harris.

Question 36

What is a national party convention? Why are they significant? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 36

A national party convention is a meeting held every 4 years by each of the 2 major parties, with these meetings used to decide upon the Presidential and VP candidates for a party and to approve the party platform.

Question 37

What is a party platform? How is it created? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 37

A party platform is similar to an election manifesto in the UK. It sets out the policies a candidate wishes to pursue should they be elected. It is created by holding a series of meetings across the country to determine what priorities and stances the electorate has.

Question 38

Why is the party platform influential? Why is it not influential? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 38

Influential: can resolve disputes within a party and create policy which appeals to a broad consensus of voters, can set the agenda for a presidency and outline key policy.
Not influential: can lead to divides and splits within a party, little reference made to policy decided at the platform throughout the campaign, little attention paid to this when a candidate wins.

Question 39

What informal reasons may a national party convention have for being important? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 39

A party convention may be utilised to promote party unity, it may be useful to enthuse committed voters for each party and it may also be significant for enthusing ordinary voters to support a particular candidate.

Question 40

What examples are there of a candidate having a significant post-convention ‘bounce’? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 40

In 1992, Clinton saw a ‘bounce’ of 16% in the polls. In 1984, Mondale saw a ‘bounce’ of 9%.

Question 41

What examples are there of a post-convention ‘bounce’ being misleading? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 41

In 2016, Clinton recieved a ‘bounce’ of 4.5%, superior to Trump’s, yet lost. Furthermore, in 1984, Mondale saw a ‘bounce’ of 9%, superior to Reagan, yet still lost.

Question 42

What instances are there of Presidential Debates being significant? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 42

In 1980, Reagan used his closing address to the public to launch a damning attack on the Carter regime, with this creating a stark comparison to Carter’s relatively downbeat and uninspiring address. Furthermore, Trump’s unconventional attacks on Clinton fitted his narrative of being anti-establishment and a political outsider.

Question 43

What example is there of debates being of limited importance to elections? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 43

In 2012, Obama’s performance in the first debate was dismal in comparison to the more charismatic Romney, with this threatening to undermine his bid for re-election. However, Obama was still able to win the electio despite this.

Question 44

What was the % gap between people who thought Romney had won the first debate of 2012 and people who thought Obama had? Who was this in favour of? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 44

There was a 52% gap between the percieved winners of the 2012 first debate, with this in favour of Romney.

Question 45

What 4 rules tend to determine the winner of Presidential debates? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 45

In Presidential debates, style and appearance is often more important than the content of what is said, memorable sound bites can aid a candidate’s performance, debates may be more difficult for incumbents than challengers and verbal gaffes may prove costly to a candidate.

Question 46

What is the ‘October Surprise’? How was this significant in 2016? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 46

The ‘October Surprise’ is an event occurring late in a presidential election to the disadvantage of one candidate and effectively finishing any chance of them succeeding in the election. This was seen in 2016 when Clinton’s emails began to be investigated by the FBI. This seriously undermined Clinton’s candidacy.

Question 47

What are the strengths and weaknesses of the ‘October Surprise’? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 47

Strengths: major errors or issues with a campaign may be held to account by a challenger and punished by the electorate, controversy can be punished by information available to the electorate.
Weaknesses: minor events may end up undermining the campaign as a whole, the ‘October Surprise’ may be insignificant and only confirm a likely outcome.

Question 48

What are strengths and weaknesses of televised debates? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 48

Strengths: provide a platform for candidates to outline policy, allow voters to be more informed/engaged by politics, can place candidates under pressure. VP debates too.
Weaknesses: favours style/charisma over policies and competency in office, overemphasises importance of soundbites, poor debate performance may derail a campaign. Rarely have major impacts.

Question 49

What was the turnout at the 2020 election? What was the turnout at the 2016 election? What was the turnout at the 2008 election? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 49

2020 - 66%
2016 - 54%
2008 - 62%

Question 50

What example is there of Ohio acting as a Bellwether State? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 50

In all of the last 14 presidential elections, Ohio has suppoorted the winning candidate.

Question 51

How many of the last 7 incumbents running for President have successfully run for a 2nd term? - Electoral Systems in the US

Answer 51

Of the last 7 incumbents to have run for a 2nd term, 5 were successful in winning the Presidency again.

Question 52

How often do elections to the House/Senate take place? What is the significance of this? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 52

Elections to the House take place every 2 years, while Senate elections occur every 2 years with 1/3 of this chamber elected at these. This means that the House is held to account constantly by the electorate, although Senate terms are considerably longer.

Question 53

What are midterm elections? Why are they significant locally and nationally? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 53

Midterm elections are elections held half way through a presidential term (2 years in). This sees the whole of the House and 1/3 of the Senate being elected, with this acting as a referendum on a President’s performance and allowing local people to have their views represented.

Question 54

How are candidates selected for Congressional elections? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 54

Congressional elections see candidates selected through congressional primaries, where voters in local areas can directly choose who is each party’s candidate in that election.

Question 55

How many incumbent Senators have been defeated in congressional primaries between 1982 and 2016? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 55

Between 1982 and 2016, only 8 incumbent Senators were defeated in congressional primaries.

Question 56

What was the incumbency rate in the 2020 Congressional Elections? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 56

93% of incumbents won their elections in the 2020 elections.

Question 57

Why do incumbents have such an advantage over their challengers in congressional elections? (4) - Features of the Constitution

Answer 57

Incumbents are recognisable names in constituencies from congressional service and local action, incumbents provide constituency services, incumbents can outraise any challengers substantially, incumbents can attract funding for their constituencies through congressional lobbying (pork-barrel politics).

Question 58

In 2016, how many times more money did Senate incumbents raise compared to their challengers? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 58

In 2016, Senate incumbents raised 7 times as much money as their challengers.

Question 59

What is the coattails effect? When has it been significant? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 59

The coattails effect is the process by successful Presidential candidates manage to help candidates for other offices into power by strong performances at the top of a ticket. This was seen under Reagan, who saw substantial Senate and House gains following his Presidential success.

Question 60

What caveat is there that limits the impact of the coattails effect? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 60

Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump all had either very limited or non-existent coattails, suggesting that this phenomenon is largely in decline.

Question 61

What is split ticket voting? What has happened to split ticket voting in recent years? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 61

Split ticket voting is where voters will vote for one party’s candidate for the Presidency and another party’s candidate for a separate office. This has seen a decline in recent years as partisanship has increased.

Question 62

How many states had split Senate combinations between Democrats and Republicans in 1975? How many were split in 2017? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 62

In 1975, 44 states had split Senate representations. 12 had split Senate representations in 2017.

Question 63

What % of congressional districts were competitive in 2016? What does this indicate? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 63

7% of congressional districts were competitive in 2016. This means that control of the House is likely to remain entrenched with a certain party for prolonged periods. Furthermore, it means that representatives in safe districts can prioritise loyalty to parties and other organisations over their constituents.

Question 64

Which President saw his party gain seats in both houses of Congress at midterms and when? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 64

In 2002, Bush gained seats for the Republicans in Congress and the Senate, a rarity.

Question 65

What is the general trend with regards to the performance of the President’s party at midterm elections? Why? - Features of the Constitution

Answer 65

A President’s party tends to lose seats in Congress during midterm elections. This is because, when a President has performed well, candidates for their party are largely devoid of their influence on a ticket during midterms. Furthermore, when Presidents perform poorly, the electorate tend to punish them for this performance.