Preface, ACC, Financial Markets Flashcards
What is the actuarial control cycle
The Actuarial Control Cycle is a schematic approach based on a scientific approach to problem solving. Involves a feedback loop and the three stages:
Specifying the problem
Developing a solution
Monitoring the Experience
Why are feedback loops important in actuarial work
Things in the context and environment change all the time and previous assumptions can become invalid. Revision is needed to refine or analyze your work.
The Actuarial Control Cycle must of course be considered in the context of the business, economic and commercial environment (e.g. legislation, taxation, business ethics).
Explain specifying the problem as a part of the actuarial control cycle
Analyse the Risk
Assess Client’s Situation - Focus is on recognising, measuring, analysing and managing risks for your client.
Consider high-level options - Impact of risks and each potential solution on all stakeholders to be considered
Strategic courses of action are debated
Explain Developing a solution as a part of the actuarial control cycle
Selection or construction of a model occurs, parameters are chosen and discuss assumptions
Calculate and interpret results- implications for all stakeholders
Determine solution proposed and main alternatives identified
Formal proposal/report
What’s a dynamic strategy
Dynamic strategy is Contingent on happenings within the market. We will mostly consider static strategies this term
Explain alpha risk
Alpha risk is when you think a fund manager outperforms the fund index. You think you’re picking a good manager to do better than the market and you take on alpha risk
Explain monitoring the experience as a part of the actuarial control cycle
Compare with models previous
Review model - update with current experience
Give feedback into the problem specification
Review business context, update assumptions and identify causes of changes, are they likely to stick
Identify scope for improvement
Analyse the actual vs expected experience
After this step will either refine the initial solution OR a fresh look at the problem
What is the extended actuarial control cycle
There is also an extended Actuarial Control Cycle separating insurance (actuarial risks like size of claims) to investment processes
What are the two forms of actuarial investment advice generally given
1: To help clients construct a benchmark investment, and identify least risk strategy. Process is to meet clients, give advice, explain consequences, and write a report on this advice. ALWAYS identify the least risk investment strategies.
2: To give advice on how to outperform the benchmark return. Key assessment here is objective of client - can only win if others on market have different objectives
When giving investment advice what are key practices
Advice must eb formally given
Client needs to understand the consequences of all decisions
Communication to non experts is key here
Always emphasize the randomness of the markets.
What category of theory can be difficult to incorporate in a model
It’s very hard to incorporate the reflexive nature of theories into your model. Human nature is to follow each other, follow cascades or theories when they become widespread.
Define neutral theories
Neutral Theories: Theories were no one, or some, or everyone believing in the theory has no impact on the phenomenon Ex: theory of compound interest.
Define Reflexive theories
Reflexive Theories: So no one, or some, or everyone believing in the theory has an impact on the phenomenon. Reflexive theories can be divided into self-fulfilling theories, self-negating theories or a mix. Self fulfilling means the more that believe in it the more prominent it is. Self negating is the more people believe it the less true it becomes.
Give an example of self fulfilling theory
Rational self-interest hypothesis (humans act rationally when making decisions involving their finances ) in economics…those who believe it act more selfishly than those who do not.
Give an example of a self negating theory
Ex self negating: Any theory which claims a particular financial instrument offers
unusually low risk relative to its returns will tend to be self-negating: as demand for the investment ups its price, reducing expected returns and increasing its risk.
What are the key attributes of an investor
The investor objectives are more important than the investment opportunity - reward and risk are defined by investor viewpoint.
Goal is “the highest possible return within an acceptable level of risk”.
Need to understand investor constraints.
Every individual will have an optimum strategy unique to them.
Typically investors fund accumulate to meet liabilities so what aspects of investments and liabilities must be considered?
Nature of liabilities – real, monetary, static, going up with inflation?.
Term of liabilities
Currency of liabilities
Uncertainty in timing
Surplus
Regulation and Statutory Rules
Taxation
Expected Return from Assets
Contractual obligations
Ethical
Competitors
What does system T stand for
Security, Yield, Spread (diversification), Term, Exchange rate, Marketability Taxation.
Name lots of investment types
Cash, Money market instruments, government bonds, Corporate fixed interest bonds, index linked bonds, equities, property, currency (no income), commodities (no income), derivative instruments, pooling vehicles, other things
Why is CAPM or efficient frontier not practical?
In reality you won’t know the inputs for CAPM or the efficient frontier optimisation, hence outputs cannot be estimated accurately.
If you’re just solvent what should investment strategy be?
You only have funds available to meet your liabilities you should take MRP only. You do not have the capacity to take risks.
What are the embedded risks in cash, bonds, equities, property and derivatives
Cash - small risk: counterparty risk and inflation risk are embedded
Bonds - Counterparty risk and inflation risk
Equity, property, derivatives - No promises, higher risk, equity risk, property risk etc
Why does one have to be wary of using historical data?
Past behavior has to be interpreted as a reflexive model
Knowledge of the past affects the future so future will be different.
Data might look very different as economies were very different
Also remember in investing you’re trying to outwit and win over others and normally everyones relationships and key relationships will start based on historical data.
Define a bond
A bond is a negotiable loan raised by some body, with generally fixed interest payments and redemption date (“fixed interest bonds”). There are several types.
So income from bonds is coupon payments and then there is a redemption amount at the end of the term. They are contracts to be enforced - need reliable parties.
Government bonds are gilts
They have low dealing costs generally
Define the term structure of interest rates
Term structure of interest - Describes the interest on government bonds for each future period giving us a platform for the future.
After about 20 years term the market gets a lot thinner.
How are bonds priced - talk about bond pricing and price changes
You buy in groups of 100 nominal.
Can buy bullet payments as stripped bonds.
Bond market can be prone to being heavily influenced by large trades.
The longer the bond the more dramatic the price change given a change in interest rates.
What is equity or an ordinary share
Equity or ordinary share – part ownership of the company with a right to vote on management of company, to participate in distributable profits of company and residual value on wind-up
Income from equities – dividends of uncertain amount
Keeps pace with inflation or economic growth perhaps.
Purely profiting by business activity.
Define quoted and unquoted shares
Quoted shares – those listed, regulated and traded on a recognised exchange.
Unquoted share means not listed.
What is creative destruction
Creative destruction means old companies go by the wayside when new companies come along, and they don’t contribute much to economy growth
Recycling of capital ideas - older companies offer more dividends as they are not in the growth stage. This capital gets put into newer companies.
Name a global equity index
FTSE Global Equity Index Series covers over 7,000 securities in 48 different countries and captures 98% of the world’s investable market capitalisation.
What sort of mean should be used communicating returns to investors
Important to consider how you communicate real returns must convery the accumulation over the long term too.
Geometric averages < arithmetic average
Statistical mean is always arithmetic because of nice properties.
Geometric means will properly capture real losses
Name two world crashes of equities
From March 2000 to End 2002 – World equity markets (FTSE World) fall over 50%
From December 2007 to March 2009 – US Market falls 50% in Real terms
Explain why procyclicality is bad
Procyclicality means when things go badly most of the time it’s a bad economy causing it so you won’t have money when you need it.
tendency of financial variables to fluctuate around a trend during the economic cycle
What is a money market instrument
A money market instrument is, in essence, a short-term loan
Prices quoted on a discounted basis
The number of days in a year is by convention. In the UK it’s 365 and the US and Euro use 360.
What is the price quotes for a treasury bill in UK
Price Quoted for UK Treasury Bill= 100(1-(n/365)(d/100)) where n is no. of days outstanding and d is (annualised) discount rate
What is a repo
A repo is an agreement to repurchase bonds a few days after selling: determine lowest short term interest rate as there is essentially no risk of default on repos.
Interest rate is set at what you’re gonna buy it back at so it’s independent form the market - all to do with sale and repurchase agreement
Repo: sell and buy-back agreements to raise money on secure terms.
Who uses money markets
Central banks, governments, banks, companies (financial or otherwise), public agencies
Dominated by clearing banks : they borrow to cover a shortfall of liquid funds
Money markets are used to manage short term cash flows and liquidity
Characteristics of money markets
Excellent security : exposure time to credit worthiness of the borrower is limited
Yield: Close to interest rate set by monetary authorities and incorporates short term inflation expectation
Term: Most within 91 days
available in all currencies
Marketability: High
Volatility: Low as very short term
Tax: Taxed as income
Why would one hold cash?
Match known liabilities (Short term)
Liquidity requirements and you dont want to get haircut on assets.
Other: ex: if everything else is going down
Rising interest rates means the period is uncertain so people run to security or safe bets.
What will the reaction be to rising interest rates
Rising interest rates means the period is uncertain: people will question why the central bank is causing rates to rise. If there is uncertainty prices of securities go crazy generally so people run to security or safe bets.
Rising interest rates gives central bank control, disposable income decreases. Less inclined to borrow or invest which will push down demand for goods and services and lead to lower prices.
Why is controlling interest rates potentially asymmetrical
Rising interest rates gives central bank control however putting down interest rates can make it harder to stimulate the response you want. People won’t invest unless they see people spending.
Controlling interest rates one way is easier than the other as having free money is slightly problematic.
If people keep saving, investment doesn’t happen and demand reduces in the economy