prediction and forecasting accuracy Flashcards
what are the 3 models used to forecast/predict tectonic disasters
the risk disk model
hazard management cycle model
parks model
what is the risk disk model
a model to help better understand disaster management
what are the main factors of risk reduction for the risk disk model
disaster preparedness, disaster response, disaster recovery, disaster mitigation, development, adaptation to climate change
what are the 4 sub sections of the hazard management cycle
mitigation
prepardeness
response
recovery
what are the 2 sub sections of the hazard management cycle that are strategies. put in place prior to hazard
mitigation
prepardness
what are the 2 sub sections of the hazard management cycle that are post hazard event
response
recovery
How effective are New Zealands mitigation strategies in reducing the impact of Christchurch E/Q, and what are the strengths and limitations of these efforts?
Pos:
Strict building codes so structures move as a single unit
Neg:
Old buildings are vulnerable and weakened by a 7.0 magnitude e/q
To what extent is NZ prepared for CHRISTCHURCH E/Q, and what are the advantages and disadvantages of their preparedness strategies?
PRO:
People were educated with evacuated plans
NEG:
No warning system
How does NZ respond to events, and what are the positive outcomes and challenges of their emergency response efforts?
PRO:
Emergency services responded quickly
Received international aid from singapore, USA, Britain and Taiwan as well as Australia
NEG:
N/A
How successful is NZ in managing the recovery phase after CHRISTCHURCH E/Q, and what are the key benefits and drawbacks of their approach?
PRO:
Electricity restored to 75% of the city within 3 days
NEG:
Sewage systems and water took many years to be restored at some areas affected by liquefaction
How effective are HAITI’s mitigation strategies in reducing the impact of E/Q 2010, and what are the strengths and limitations of these efforts?
PRO:
Since e/q government is getting stronger
NEG:
Can’t do anything to stop an earthquake
Buildings are not e/q proof
High corruption level
To what extent is HAITI prepared for 2010 E/Q, and what are the advantages and disadvantages of their preparedness strategies?
POS:
N/a
NEG:
Lack of disaster preparation
No warning system
How does HAITI respond to 2010 E/Q event, and what are the positive outcomes and challenges of their emergency response efforts?
PRO:
US$13 Billion in aid however its controlled externally where it went
NEG:
Foreign aid was delayed due to poor infrastructure and lack of control
Transport links destroyed delaying crucial aid to be distributed
How successful is HAITI in managing the recovery phase after 2010 E/Q, and what are the key benefits and drawbacks of their approach?
PRO:
More buildings, roads and schools built, Health statistics have improved
NEG:
Key gov buildings destroyed + officials dead reducing ability to recover
How effective are Icelands mitigation strategies in reducing the impact of E15 Volcano, and what are the strengths and limitations of these efforts?
POS:
Monitoring nearby volcano Katla
NEG:
N/a
To what extent is Iceland prepared for E15 Volcanoes, and what are the advantages and disadvantages of their preparedness strategies?
PRO:
Emergency services were well prepared
NEG;
Only given a 30 minute warning
How does Iceland respond to E15 volcano event, and what are the positive outcomes and challenges of their emergency response efforts?
PRO;
700 people evacuated and euro air space was closed down
NEG:
N/A
How successful is Iceland in managing the recovery phase after E15 Volcano, and what are the key benefits and drawbacks of their approach?
PRO:
Reopened air space
Reconstruct roads, flood defences etc
NEG:
Only given 30 minute warning
How effective are Indias mitigation strategies in reducing the impact of Boxing Day Tsunami , and what are the strengths and limitations of these efforts?
POS:
N/A
NEG:
Areas hit were low income
No money for defences
14 countries impacted by tsunami – none had tsunami defence
To what extent is India prepared for tsunamis and what are the advantages and disadvantages of their preparedness strategies?
PRO:
N/a
NEG:
No warning system
Absence of planning and prep
How does India respond to E15 tsunami, and what are the positive outcomes and challenges of their emergency response efforts?
PRO;
Huge amounts of international aid, UK alone donated £330 million
Emergency food, water, care and shelter
NEG:
N/A
How successful is India in managing the recovery phase after boxing day tsunami 2004 , and what are the key benefits and drawbacks of their approach?
PRO;
Many living in better conditions than before the tsunami
NEG:
N/A
what is parks model used for
Park’s disaster response curve can be used to help plan and understand risk and resilience, as well as to better prepare for future events.
what are the 4 stages of parks model
There are 4 stages in the model;
Pre-disaster
Relief
Rehabilitation
Reconstruction
PARKS MDL: what is pre-disaster
Quality of life is normal before a disaster strikes;
people do their best to prevent and prepare for such events happening by:
-educating the public on how to act when a disaster strikes
-preparing supplies
-putting medical teams on standby.
PARKS MDL: what is relief phase
communities enter a phase of intense disruption to their normal daily lives
- Involves – searching and rescuing people trapped, often with the help of outside teams.
- providing urgent medical supplies, rescue equipment, clothing and food
PARKS MDL: what is the rehabilitation phase, how long does it last, etc
This may last several weeks or months
-Action is taken to restore physical and community structures at least temporarily. This may include provisions for healthcare, sanitation and housing,
-Establish an ongoing supply of food and water.
-This can be done at a local level, but also can involve international humanitarian aid for international countries.
PARKS MDL: what is the reconstruction phase
Permanent changes are introduced to restore the quality of life and economic stability to its original level, if not better.
effected by:
- The speed at which reconstruction occurs is dictated by
- Type and magnitude of the event
- Availability of contingency planning for disasters
