POWER AND EFFECT SIZE Flashcards
What are 3 categories included under statistical significance?
- Decision errors
- Power
- Effect size
What are decision errors?
Decisions Errors refer to the probability of making a wrong conclusion when doing hypothesis testing. It includes Type I and type II error ( alpha value and beta value)
In other words, it is when the right procedure leads to the wrong results
How come it is possible to make decision errors?
We use hypothesis testing to make decisions about populations by looking at samples. Since it’s based on probabilities, the process is designed to keep decision mistakes very low—less than 5%.
Hypothesis testing helps us decide if the patterns or differences we see in the sample are real or just due to chance.
A lot of the time, decision errors happen because…
we don’t have enough power.
What are the four possible outcomes in significance testing?
- True positive result: real effect; you correctly reject the null
- False negative: real effect; incorrectly retain the null (Type II error)
- True negative: no effect; correctly retain the null ( basically saying there is no effect, no difference)
- False positive: No effect; incorrectly reject the null.
** OUT OF THE FOUR, ONLY ONE CAN HAPPEN AT A TIME.
What is a type I error?
It is the probability of rejecting the hull hypothesis when in fact it is true (should’ve been retained). In other words, it is concluding from the results of a study that the research hypothesis is supported when in fact the research hypothesis. is actually false.
When can you know that you made a type I error?
When someone tries to replicate your study and they can’t, maybe they control confounding variables you’d dint, or different participants….
What is alpha?
the PROBABILITY of making a type I error (The same as significance level)
alpha = 0.05 = 5% probability/chance of making a type I error
What is a type II error?
The probability of retaining the null hypothesis when in fact it is false. In other words: it is concluding from the results of a study that the research hypothesis is not supported when in fact the research hypothesis is true. so hence why probability of having that sample, must be smaller than the probability of making a type 1 error.
How are type II errors possible?
Even though the research hyp. is true, the power may not be large enough to detect an effect in a particular study (i.e. small sample size, so you cant have significant results:(
What is beta?
The probability of making a type II error.
EXAM QUESTION:
Are type 1 and type 2 errors inversely related?
YES. If you decrease the probability of making a type I error, you increase the probability of making a type 2 error.
What is statistical power (power)?
The ability of a test to detect an effect of a particular size (the probability of rejecting Ho when it is ACTUALLY false) - so corresponds to the right side (alpha) and left side is beta.
In other words, it is the probability of correctly rejecting the null hyp when it is false and the probability of correctly concluding that you 2 population means differ significantly. So basically not fucking up (making the right decision!)
Would you rather avoid a type 1 error or type 2 error?
Type 1. EXAMPLE: PRODUIT FARMACEUTIQUE.
type 1: law suit
type 2: Well you lose nothing except helping la population ciblée, mais tu sais at least tu n’aggraves pas leur santé.
How is power calculated and what is a “good” power to aim for?
1-Beta.
0.8 is a good level to aim for.
What decreases the likelihood of decision errors?
More power.
2 characteristics about the relationship between type 1 and type 2 errors.
- Only one of these errors can occur in a given study
- They are inversely related; controlling one, increases the other. The smaller the alpha level, the higher the beta level.
What distribution are we using when discussing power?
Distribution of means under the ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS!!!!!!! not the null
What is the basic concept/approach to figuring power and beta? (steps)
Step 1: Find the Z score on the distribution of means under the ALTERNATIVE hypothesis that corresponds to the critical mean (Sample mean (X avec barre) critical in the distribution of means under the NULL hypothesis.
STEP 2: the probability of exceeding this Z score (which is the power of the study) can then be found in the normal curve table.
MORE POWER = …
LESS POWER = …
less overlap between distribution of means under the alternative hypothesis and under the distribution of means under the null hyp. So that mean there is a significant difference between the null hyp and research hyp.
more overlap between […]
In the steps of figuring power and beta, u1 represents what?
The mean of the distribution of means under the alternative hypothesis (same as sample mean, a point estimate of the population mean!)
What is the “critical mean”? What is the formula for the critical mean?
It represents the value of the mean corresponding to that critical Z (which in turn corresponds to the alpha level on the distribution of means under the null)
Critical mean = the mean of the comparison population (under the null) + (Z CRITICAL x Standard deviation of the distribution of means under the null hypothesis.
If the alternative hypothesis is
H1: u1>u0 (one tail positive critical value), the proportion below this Z score is …
Beta, thus Power = 1- Beta
obtained test statistic is positive (proportion below obtained test statistic is beta)
If the alternative hypothesis is
H1: u1<u0 (one-tail negative critical value - Z score), the proportion below this Z score is …
Power, thus Beta = 1- power.
obtained test statistic is negative (proportion below obtained test statistic is power)