Power and Developments Flashcards
What is power?
The ability to exert influence through various means over others
What is hard power?
Coercive power to compel other states to follow orders via threats or incentivise them to do so via material rewards
(includes military and economic power)
What is soft power?
Power via attraction and identification, by sharing common values and ideas with other actors
e.g. US journalist O’Rourke said that communism collapsed ‘because nobody wanted to wear Bulgarian shoes’
What is smart power?
Term coined by Joseph Nye which refers to a state using both hard and soft power methods to achieve its aims
Best example of this is Obama’s Cairo speech in 2009, which focused on the benefits of Islamic culture and emphasised the need for cooperation and co-existence, while also stating in no uncertain terms that the US would not tolerate any threats to its national security
Define military power
Military power is the capacity of a state to commit or threaten aggression against another state. This may involve assassinations, drone strikes, bombing campaign or the possession of nuclear weapons
Define economic power
Economic power is the capacity of a state to induce another actor to do something by threatening economic penalties or offering favourable terms. This may involve trade deals, trade wars, embargoes or sanctions.
Examples of hard power
Obama ordered drone strikes in various countries, including Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq
Russia’s invasions of Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022 have challenged Ukraine’s sovereignty through use of hard power
In February 2024, the UK, US and EU announced 500 new economic sanctions on Russia
Examples of soft power
Formation of the BRICS increased their soft power by bolstering their diplomatic influence, especially within IGOs like the G20, the IMF and the World Bank
The USA has significant global cultural influence, such as in popular culture, food, fashion and music
What is a great power?
A state that has significant regional influence, the capacity for significant military outreach, a major role in international organisation and a strong economy.
What is a superpower?
A state that has significant global power (specifically ‘mobility of power’, such as by possessing nuclear weapons) and dominant structural power.
What is unipolarity?
A system with one single pre-eminent state (a hegemon) in global politics, which is relatively unconstrained and has no serious rivals (either as individual states or alliance blocs).
What is bipolarity?
A system revolving around two major states, with other states clustering around one of the two dominant states to form ‘blocs’. Between the two blocs, a near-equal balance of power exists and neither is able to challenge the other decisively
What is multipolarity?
A system with three or more states with significant global power, which have independent interests and goals. They constrain each other and none are able to decisively affect the actions of the others alone (although they may cooperate to do so)
What do realists say about unipolarity?
Realists would say that unipolarity is the ideal system of polarity for international relations. The existence of a global hegemon allows it to act as a de facto sovereign and establish a worldwide peace through force of arms. In the absence of challengers, the hegemon can utilise both hard and soft power to achieve a unitary set of objectives. During the 19th century, the British Empire was instrumental in eradicating the Trans-Atlantic slave trade (albeit after doing a great deal to spread it in the first place)
What do liberals say about unipolarity?
Liberals would say that unipolarity is dangerous, because the existence of an unconstrained hegemon is equivalent to a global tyranny. For liberals, peace is generated through cooperation, but if the hegemon can do whatever it wants without repercussions, then it will disregard concerns about human rights, the legitimacy of war, poverty, the rights of other states, etc. During the 19th century, there were millions of deaths from famine and colonialism in Britain’s Empire across Africa and Asia
What do realists say about bipolarity?
Realists would argue that bipolarity is a natural tendency in the world order and is stable, like unipolarity. States seek to establish such a balance to curb the hegemonic ambitions of other states. By establishing a balance of power, either major state is less likely to seek hegemony because they anticipate being countered by the other bloc. The ensuing equilibrium generates peace and stability because of rational fear of the costs of conflict. During the Cold War, neither the USA nor the Soviet Union launched direct attacks on each other or dared to use nuclear weapons, keeping the rivalry relatively ‘cold’
What do liberals say about bipolarity?
Liberals would argue that bipolarity is more stable than unipolarity, but still not ideal. This is because unforeseeable circumstances (domestic revolution, natural disaster, economic collapse, etc.) may at some point give one of the dominant states in the bipolar system the ability to emerge as a hegemon. The competition between the two blocs means that more resources are invested into military rivalry and arms races, and there is a lack of proper global integration in terms of trade and common institutions (preventing the emergence of a Kantian peace)
What do realists say about multipolarity?
Realists would argue that multipolarity is the least stable system of international relations; because states are always self-interested and amoral actors, they will seek an advantage over other states where it can be gained. Because the system is so finely balanced, even a few states building up an alliance bloc to ‘pool’ their power can upset the balance of power and lead to conflict. As the number of powerful actors increases, so does the number of possible conflicts due to the security dilemma. Realists would argue the breakdown of the multipolar interwar system after the Great Depression (1929 onwards), and the rise of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan were what lead to WWII – there was no strong hegemon to counter them and maintain ‘peace’ and those states felt that they had a rational chance of achieving global dominance
What do liberals say about multipolarity?
Liberals would argue that multipolarity is the most preferable system of polarity – it means that states are forced to co-operate with each other, because no one state has sufficient power that it can wield unilaterally. There is no one hegemonic de facto sovereign to impose its will and global solutions on other states, so the only way to solve issues like poverty; conflict; human rights; environmental crises, etc. is for states to work together to build some kind of interdependent international architecture. The potential gains of conflict are negligible, whereas the potential gains of cooperation are significant. In the 1920s, France and Germany (despite having been enemies in WWI) collaborated to settle disputes over reparations/payments and their post-war borders, because they recognised neither was powerful enough to ‘enforce’ a solution on the other
Evidence of the USA’s superpower status (economic)
As of 2024, the USA’s GDP is $25.5 trillion, the highest in the world.The USA’s GDP represents about a quarter of the world’s total
The USA’s population (over 340 million) is large and relatively highly educated, with more than 80% living in urban areas – these are all indicators of a highly developed economy
The US dollar is the currency most used in international transactions and is the world’s foremost reserve currency, backed by faith in the US economy. The USA’s economy is fuelled by abundant natural resources (valued at $45 trillion in total), a well-developed infrastructure, and high productivity
The USA is also home to the world’s largest financial markets, especially in New York and Chicago – foreign investments made in the US total almost $2.4 trillion annually
Evidence of the USA’s superpower status (military)
The USA possesses the world’s most technologically advanced military, with a truly global reach (spending more than the next ten countries combined -$732 billion in 2019, representing 38% of global total military spending)
The USA maintains a stockpile of nearly 7000 nuclear warheads, some of which are carried at sea on submarines and others of which are based on land in the USA in missile siloes
The US navy is the largest in the world and has ‘blue-water’ capability – it is able to operate anywhere in any ocean in the world, even far from US shores. This is largely because of the 20 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers operated by the US Navy, which can travel across the ocean for 20 years continuously without refuelling
The USA also maintains over 800 military bases across the planet staffed by 160,000 personnel, with the majority concentrated in the Caribbean, the Middle East, Europe, and Japan/ South Korea (the last two as a counterweight to China and North Korea)
Evidence of the USA’s superpower status (institutional)
The USA exerts global political influence as the chief architect of international political and economic institutions, many of which are headquartered on American soil (e.g. the UN in New York; the IMF and World Bank in Washington DC)
The USA has a 17% vote share in the IMF, exercising an effective veto; and has an official veto in the P5 of the United Nations Security Council
Evidence of the USA’s superpower status (soft power)
The USA has achieved global cultural prominence through the products that it exports worldwide – cars, electronics (Apple, Microsoft), digital platforms (Amazon), food (McDonalds, Starbucks) and the entertainment industry (music, Hollywood)
In cultural terms, one could argue that the USA’s values of freedom, democracy, capitalism and human rights have become deeply embedded in most systems and institutions of global governance, and have been adopted (sometimes superficially) by most states as governing principles domestically
The US is able to exert soft power to encourage other states to make liberalising reforms, e.g. Saudi Arabia’s freeing of feminist activists in 2021
Limitations of the USA’s power (economic)
A potential problem for future economic growth is Trump’s damaging trade war with China, which crippled US agriculture and has still not yet been fully resolved – there are many outstanding tariffs which the Biden Administration has not yet removed
Threatened by other states:
Brazil has seen dramatic economic growth in recent years, with a higher GDP than Russia’s in 2019.
India has also seen strong economic growth (8.4% in 2023 compared to the USA’s 3.1% in the same year)
Limitations of the USA’s power (military)
Russia has a similar amount of nuclear warheads than the US, and India and China both have nuclear capabilities
China has the biggest standing army in the world, with 2.185 million active personnel
The US was unable to destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan
Limitations on the USA’s power (structural)
The USA has somewhat withdrawn from global cooperative projects between 2016-2020 under the Trump Administration, including the Paris Climate Agreement and ceasing funding for the World Health Organisation; and threats to withdraw from NATO, NAFTA and other organisations
Although the Biden Administration has begun to restore these relations, it is unclear whether Trump’s presidency has done lasting damage to the USA’s foreign alliances and relationships
The USA has less influence in the G20 as an institution of global governance
Both China and Russia have UNSC vetoes
China holds significant power in regional organisations like the AIIB, which was designed to challenge the Western-dominated World Bank
Limitations on USA’s power (soft power)
One could argue that there has been a serious backlash to the Americanisation of culture and that the USA’s attempt to politically reshape parts of the world in its image have failed. In particular, the emergence of groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, as well as the (Islamic Republic of) Iran to a much lesser extent, promote a fundamentalist view of Islam and authoritarianism and reject American hegemony
The USA has struggled to extend its soft power influence against effective digital disinformation campaigns waged by China and Russia
The growth of partisan political divisions in the USA, including the threat of white supremacism, may undermine America’s soft power
Evidence of China’s superpower status (economic)
China’s GDP is currently $17.9 trillion (2nd in the world behind the USA’s $25.5 trillion)
Was predicted in 2003 to overtake the US economically by 2041 (no longer on track for this)
Investment in places like Ethiopia through BRI
Second largest population in the world (1.41 billion)
US depended on Chinese loans for a short period after the 2008 financial crisis
Evidence of China’s superpower status (military)
Biggest armed forces in the world - 2.185 million active military personnel
For 2024, China is ranked third in the world according to the Global Fire Power index
Evidence of China’s superpower status (structural)
P5 member
Challenging Western dominance with AIIB
Structural power shown by the fact that China was able to pressure the WHO into not recognising Taiwan’s very successful Covid-19 response
Evidence of China’s superpower status (soft power)
Largest diplomatic network in the world (overtaking the US in 2019)
Several hundred Confucius Institutes constructed around the world to teach Chinese language and culture
Limitations on China’s power (economic)
China’s economic model is based on cheap labour and manufacturing. It is becoming less attractive to TNCs due to rise in expected living standard
One-child policy has led to a rapidly ageing population
Limitations on China’s power (military)
Only1 small military base in Djibouti (compared to the US’s over 800 bases in 70 countries)
Defence spending lags considerably behind the US (only about a third)
Limitations on China’s power (structural)
Outweighed on the P5 by the ‘liberal Western’ alliance bloc of the USA, UK and France
Western developed countries have a far greater combined vote share in the IMF than China, which restricts global economic power
Most institutions of global governance are based in the West and on Western principles
Limitations on China’s power (soft power)
China’s soft power is limited as it was very isolationist for many years
Soft power limited due to accusations of spyware in TikTok - high profile US Congress case, British journalist Cristina Criddle had her IP address tracked by TikTok to see what sources she was using for her article about the app
Define a democratic state
Characterised by free, fair and regular elections in which governments are accountable to the public. They value liberal rights and freedoms and place a higher emphasis on the empowerment of individuals
Define a semi-democratic state
A state that superficially possesses the features of a democracy, but has underlying authoritarian features. The rule of law is limited, since the government is not fully committed to democratic principles of justice, fairness and tolerance
Implications of democratic states on the world order
Opportunity for peace and cooperation - Fukuyama’s ‘end of history’ suggests conflict declines as more states adopt liberal democracy
Shared democratic values creates cultural bonds, promotes IGOs
Implications of semi-democratic states on the world order
States reluctant to join institutions, fully democratic states may be wary - leading to tension and insecurity
Define a non-democratic state
An autocratic or authoritarian state in which power is concentrated either in the hands of an individual or a select few.
Implications of non-democratic states on the world order
Increased humanitarian interventions or conflict to protect civilians
Define an authoritarian state
A state in which power is concentrated in the hands of a single, usually unelected, person or party. Power is hereditary and sometimes seized, and is unlimited, given the lack of accountability
Define a failed state
States unable to function as a political unit due to lack of legitimacy or loss of territory.
Define a rogue state
A state that acts in defiance of international norms of behaviour by threatening regional and global stability.
Has the rise of China threatened global stability?
China’s expansion of its military influence in the South China Sea could bring it into conflict with other regional powers like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
How has the changing balance of world power affected conflict?
Realists fear that the conditions of power transition can lead to conflict as emerging powers, keen to expand their influence, challenge the hegemon. Since realists argue that states are power-maximisers, the uncertainties of power transition are highly unstable
Liberals argue that a more multipolar world can encourage states to work together if they are prepared to cooperate through organs of global governance
How has the changing balance of world power affected poverty?
Globalisation has led to an increase in free-market capitalism, which has dramatically reduced global poverty.
A number of developing countries have achieved remarkable success in lifting their citizens out of poverty. Among the top ten biggest economies in the world, three are in the developing world (China, India and Brazil)
The changing balance of global power has had much less of an impact on what Paul Collier called ‘the Bottom Billion’
How has the changing balance of global power affected the environment?
The changes of the global order has increased trade, global travel and industrialisation, which have taken a big toll on the environment.
On the other hand, the increased cooperation that has come with increased multipolarity has led to climate change and environmental protection gaining greater prominence in international debate
What defines a superpower?
W. Fox defines a superpower as a state with ‘great mobility of power’.
