Portfolio management Flashcards
ETF premium
(ETF price-NAV per share)/(NAV per share)
Effective transaction price = Effective spread in bid-ask vs actual price
Trade size*(actual trade price-(bid+ask)/2)
Effective bid ask spread
2*(actual trade price-(bid+ask)/2)
VWAP (volume weighted average price)
Trade size * (trade VWAP- VWAP Benchmark)
Break-even inflation rate (BEI)
difference between country’s x year default bond and ZCB default free
yield on non-inflation-indexed bonds − yield on inflation-indexed bonds
=inflation + risk premium
Output gaps
Output gaps
>0–> economy is producing beyond sustainable capacity, Associated with high and rising inflation
Actual GDP – Potential GDP
Credit spread
yield – BEI - rf
Inside bid ask spread
Highest bid – Lowest ask
value added = active return
value of portfolio − benchmark return
Composed of asset allocation return and security seleciton return
Expected return of asset
∑(wprp-wbrb)
Return from asset allocation
∑ (wp-wb)*rb
Return from security selection
Portfolio allocation * Value added
VAR
o Value of portfolio*(yearly mean / (n. of trading per year) – 1.65 *(yearly st. dev/ √(n. of trading per year))
Se voglio trasformare invece tutto monthly
Monthly return = Daily return * 30
Monthly standard deviation = daily standard deviation * √30
estimate of minimum loss that will occur with a given probability over a specified period
o expressed as a currency amount or as percentage of portfolio value.
o NOT applicable to portfolios with option
Estimated with
o Parametric method. –>normal distribution (I need mean and st. dev)
o Historical simulation–>historical values for risk factors over some prior lookback period to get a distribution of possible values.
o Monte Carlo simulation. –>each risk factor change drawn from assumed distribution and calculates pf values based on a set of changes in risk factors; repeated thousands of times to get a distribution of possible portfolio values.
Advantages:
o Widely accepted by regulators.
o Simple to understand.
o Expresses risk as a single number.
o Useful for comparing the risk of portfolios, portfolio components, and business units
Disadvantages:
o Subjective, in that the time period and the probability are chosen by the user.
o Very sensitive to the estimation method and assumptions employed by the user.
o Focuses only on left-tail outcomes.
o Vulnerable to misspecification by the user.
active risk squared = variance of active return
active factor risk + active specific risk
dove active specific risk = security selection= ∑(Wp−Wb)^2*σ^2
Weight of portfolio
optimal level of active risk / active risk
Optimal portfolio = Unconstrained pf optimal active risk
(IR/SRb) σb
Sharpe ratio portfolio
√(SR(benchmark)^2+IR(portfolio)^2)
Sharpe ratio
NOT affected by cash and leverage
(Rp-Rf)/σp
Info ratio
affected by cash or leverage
Measure consistency of active return
(Rp-Rb)/(Tracking error)=Ra/σa=(active return)/(active risk)
Info coefficient (IC) –> Fundamental law
2 × (% correct) − 1
Information ratio (fundamental law)
ALWAYS choose investor with higher info ratio (no matter of target active risk, etc.)
(TC)IC√BR
Dove IC = # of stock followed *probability che sia corretto
TC correlate ex ante returns with active weights
IC = manager ability to forecast future–> correlate ex ante forecast with realized returns
Expected return
(TC)IC√BR σ
o ETF risks:
counterparty risk (common for ETNs),
fund closure, and
expectation related risk
o APT assumption
Unsystematic risk can be diversified (systematic no)
Returns are generated using a factor model
No arbitrage opportunities exist
o During recessions
yield curve is upward sloping and steepening
Bonds with higher ratings outperform bonds with lower ratings
Marginal utility is high during economic contractions–> inter-temporal substitution high
Credit spread widens
Spreads for issuers in consumer cyclical sector widen
ST rates are low (because CB wants policy rate low because output gap is negative). LT rates impact not so strong, they are a bit rising –> upward slope
Risk premium of investors may increase on default bond–> price of these bonds will decrease
o leapfrogging algorithms
dealers quotes a wide spread, but then offers a better price in response to other traders offering better price
o flickering quotes
orders that electronic traders submit and then cancel shortly thereafter
o front running
: a trader has info on large buy side order, and trades ahead of that order to profit from market impact
o wash trading
on commonly controlled accounts
o spoofing
–> with standing limit orders
o gunning the market
: strategy used by market manipulators to cause other traders to enter into disadvantageous trades ti punto la ppistola e entri a disadvantageous trading
o squeezing/cornering
manipulator obtains control over resources necessary to settle trading contracts, that unexpectedly withdraws those resources from market