Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies Flashcards
Calculate based on the relationship.
What is the relationship between annual percentage increases and the time it takes for a population to double in size?
Use the formula that relates annual % increase to doubling time.
The doubling time of a population can be calculated using the Rule of 70, where doubling time (in years) ≈ 70 ÷ annual percentage increase.
For example, if the annual percentage increase is 2%, the doubling time is approximately 35 years (70 ÷ 2).
Explain the factors influencing modern population growth
What is the primary cause of population growth today?
Population growth today is primarily the result of a transition from a historical era of high birth and death rates to one where death rates have fallen sharply, but birth rates, particularly in least-developed countries, have declined more slowly.
In least-developed countries, the lag in birth rate decline is a key driver of ongoing population increases.
How is the rate of population increase quantitatively measured?
The rate of population increase is measured as the percentage yearly net relative increase (or decrease) in population size. It considers two factors:
1. Natural increase: The difference between fertility (births) and mortality (deaths).
1. Net international migration: The difference between people entering and leaving a country.
It is expressed as a % of the population at the start of the year
Explain the effects of rapid population growth.
What is the relationship between rapid population growth and youth dependency?
Focus on how a youthful population impacts future growth even after birth rates decline.
Rapid population growth leads to a higher proportion of dependent children in the population. This increases the burden on the working population, making it harder to support those who are not working. This situation is linked to the hidden momentum of population growth, where population continues to grow even after birth rates decline because a large youthful population eventually becomes potential parents, expanding the population base.
The youthful age structure ensures continued growth due to high numbers of people entering reproductive age.
Explain the persistence of population growth.
What are the two main reasons for the hidden momentum of population growth?
Address the impact of birth rates and population age structure.
Consider how social and age-related factors contribute to continued population growth.
The hidden momentum of population growth occurs due to two key reasons:
1. High birth rates take time to decline: Social, economic, and institutional forces that shape fertility rates over centuries cannot be quickly changed. Historical evidence, such as from European nations, shows that reducing birth rates can take decades.
1. Population age structure: Many low-income and some middle-income countries have a youthful population. This large base of young people will eventually enter reproductive age, continuing to expand the population even as birth rates decline.
For example, even if a country implements aggressive policies to lower fertility, the demographic momentum caused by the large number of young people will sustain growth for many years.
Analyze population age structure.
What does a population pyramid represent, and how are age cohorts and gender displayed?
Focus on the vertical and horizontal axes
A population pyramid graphically represents the age structure of a population by plotting age cohorts on the vertical axis and population shares or numbers on the horizontal axis. Males are typically depicted on the left side of the center line, and females on the right.
The shape of the pyramid reveals trends regarding the population.
For example, a “steep” pyramid suggests stable cohort sizes, while a wide base indicates a growing population.
Interpret population pyramid shapes.
What does a wide base in a population pyramid indicate, and why does it suggest future population growth?
Consider the size of the youngest cohorts compared to older ones
Include the relationship between the number of children and potential parents in future generations.
A wide base in a population pyramid indicates that the youngest cohorts are much larger than older cohorts, suggesting a rising population. When these large cohorts of children reach adulthood, the number of potential parents will be much larger, leading to further population growth.
For example, if 1,000 couples have two children each, the population increases compared to 500 couples with the same fertility rate.
Understand population stability vs. growth.
How does the size of successive age cohorts impact population stability or growth?
Population stability occurs when age cohorts are of similar size, as seen in “steep” pyramids. Population growth happens when larger young cohorts replace smaller older cohorts, even if fertility rates decline, because more potential parents are entering reproductive age.
Relate cohort sizes to demographic momentum.
What is the demographic momentum, and how does it arise from population pyramid structures?
Demographic momentum refers to continued population growth even after fertility rates decline, driven by a large base of young people who will become parents. This occurs because the large younger cohorts replace smaller older cohorts, increasing the total number of parents.
The momentum slows down only after cohort sizes stabilize.
How do changes in the size of age brackets reflect demographic transitions?
Explain how the fraction of the working-age population changes over time
Focus on the initial rise and subsequent fall of the working-age population fraction during the demographic transition.
In the demographic transition, the fraction of the working-age population first rises and then falls. This shift reflects changes in birth and death rates, as populations move from high fertility and mortality to lower levels of both.
The rise occurs due to declining dependency ratios, while the fall happens as the population ages. For example, in many developing countries, the working-age population is currently increasing, while in developed countries, it is declining.
Discuss challenges of a rising working-age population
What potential challenges arise when the fraction of working-age citizens increases?
Focus on the impact of unemployment and inequality.
When the fraction of working-age citizens rises, challenges include potential unemployment, inequality, social unrest (especially among males), and lost economic output. These issues arise if the economy cannot absorb the growing labor force.
Understand the demographic dividend.
What is the demographic dividend, and how does it benefit a country?
Highlight the factors that enable a country to capitalize on the demographic dividend.
The demographic dividend is a period during the demographic transition when the working-age population grows relative to dependents (children and elderly), creating an opportunity for strong income and productivity gains. Benefits include fewer dependents to support, increased female workforce participation, and more resources to invest in education and human capital.
It is a temporary window of opportunity
Balance challenges and opportunities.
How can countries balance the challenges and opportunities of a rising working-age population?
Countries can balance challenges and opportunities by creating jobs, improving education and skills training, encouraging female workforce participation, and investing in human capital. These strategies help absorb the growing labor force and maximize the economic potential of the demographic dividend.
Examine the effects of population aging.
What are the economic challenges faced by countries where the fraction of the working-age population is falling due to population aging?
Consider how population aging affects high-income countries.
Countries with a falling fraction of working-age people face increased demands for old-age support, requiring more resources for pensions, healthcare, and social services. This is a significant challenge for high-income countries with aging populations.
Address strategies for aging populations.
How can countries mitigate the economic challenges of a declining working-age population?
Countries can mitigate the challenges of a declining working-age population by:
- Encouraging higher savings rates: To prepare for the increased costs of old-age support.
- Allowing more immigration: To supplement the labor force and support economic activity.
- Policy adjustments: Such as raising retirement ages and promoting workforce participation among underrepresented groups.
Analyze the impact of fertility trends.
Why is population aging likely to pose a greater challenge for some middle-income countries, such as China?
Population aging poses a greater challenge for middle-income countries like China because they are experiencing rapid drops in fertility ahead of historical patterns seen in high-income countries. This leaves less time to adapt and prepare for the economic impacts of aging, such as increased old-age support and declining labor forces.
Summarize demographic transition stages.
What is the demographic transition, and what are its three stages?
Focus on the shifts in birth rates, death rates, and population growth.
The demographic transition explains the progression of population changes as societies modernize:
Stage 1: Stable or slow-growing populations due to high birth rates and equally high death rates.
Stage 2: Population growth accelerates as death rates decline due to better health, diets, and incomes, while birth rates remain high.
Stage 3: Population growth slows and stabilizes as birth rates decline and converge with lower death rates.
Explore stage 1 of the demographic transition
What characterizes stage 1 of the demographic transition, and why were populations stable or slow-growing during this stage?
Discuss the relationship between high birth and death rates.
Stage 1 is characterized by stable or slow-growing populations due to high birth rates being offset by equally high death rates. These high death rates were caused by poor public health, inadequate nutrition, and limited medical knowledge.
For example, pre-industrial Europe had high mortality rates due to frequent famines and epidemics.
Why does population growth accelerate in stage 2 of the demographic transition?
Population growth accelerates in stage 2 because modern health improvements, better diets, and higher incomes lead to a decline in death rates, while birth rates remain high. The gap between high births and declining deaths causes rapid population increases.
This stage marks the onset of the demographic transition.
Discuss the decline in fertility in stage 3.
What causes fertility rates to decline in stage 3 of the demographic transition, and how does this impact population growth?
Consider the influence of modernization and development.
ertility rates decline in stage 3 due to the social and economic influences of modernization and development, such as improved education, urbanization, and access to contraception. Population growth slows and stabilizes as birth rates converge with low death rates.
This stage marks the transition to little or no population growth.
Connect modernization to demographic transition.
How does economic modernization drive the demographic transition?
Explain its role in reducing death rates and later fertility rates.
Economic modernization drives the demographic transition by improving public health, providing healthier diets, and increasing incomes, which reduce death rates (stage 2). Over time, societal changes like urbanization, education, and women’s empowerment lead to declining fertility rates (stage 3).
Explore the concept of replacement fertility.
What is replacement fertility, and why does its required level vary between developed and developing countries?
Focus on survival rates and population stability.
Include examples of replacement fertility levels in different regions.
Replacement fertility is the average number of births per woman needed to maintain a stable population size, accounting for mortality. It is about 2.05 to 2.1 births per woman in developed countries where nearly all women survive to childbearing age. In developing countries, where survival rates are lower, replacement fertility can exceed 3 births per woman.
Higher mortality rates in developing countries mean more births are required to compensate for population losses.
Why is the replacement fertility level approximately 2.1 births per woman in developed countries?
The replacement fertility level in developed countries is approximately 2.1 births per woman because it accounts for the need to replace both parents in the population and compensate for a small number of women who do not survive to the mean age of childbearing.
Why is replacement fertility higher in developing countries compared to developed countries?
Focus on the differences in survival rates and demographic structures.
Replacement fertility is higher in developing countries because lower survival rates to the mean age of childbearing require more births to maintain population size. Poor healthcare, nutrition, and living conditions contribute to these lower survival rates.
More births compensate for higher child and maternal mortality.
Relate survival rates to fertility levels.
How do survival rates affect the calculation of replacement fertility?
Survival rates directly influence replacement fertility levels. In countries where nearly all women survive to childbearing age (as in developed countries), fewer births are needed to replace the population (around 2.1 births per woman). In countries with lower survival rates, more births are required to compensate for higher mortality, increasing replacement fertility to above 3 births per woman.
Explain Malthus’s population growth theory.
What did Malthus propose about population growth and food supply, and how do they relate to living standards?
Focus on diminishing returns and subsistence levels.
Malthus proposed that population tends to grow at a geometric rate, doubling every 30–40 years, while food supply grows at an arithmetic rate due to diminishing returns to land. As population increases, each person has less land to work, leading to declining marginal food production. This results in falling per capita incomes, causing populations to stabilize at or slightly above the subsistence level.
Malthus suggested “moral restraint,” such as limiting family size, to prevent widespread poverty.
Explore diminishing returns and its role in Malthus’s theory.
How does the principle of diminishing returns affect food production in Malthus’s theory?
Link diminishing returns to population growth and subsistence levels.
The principle of diminishing returns means that as population grows, the fixed amount of land must support more people. Each additional worker contributes less to total food production because the land cannot be expanded, leading to declining per capita food production.
In an agrarian society, fewer resources per worker mean reduced productivity and rising poverty.
Discuss Malthus’s solution to overpopulation.
According to Malthus, what was the only way to avoid poverty caused by rapid population growth?
Malthus argued that the only way to avoid poverty caused by rapid population growth was through “moral restraint,” which involves limiting the number of children people have. By reducing population growth, food supplies could better match the population’s needs, avoiding chronic poverty.
Analyze the relationship between population and per capita income.
Why did Malthus believe that rapid population growth would lead to declining per capita incomes?
Address the link between food production and population size.
Malthus believed rapid population growth would lead to declining per capita incomes because food production grows more slowly than the population due to diminishing returns on land. As more people share limited resources, individual contributions to food production decrease, resulting in poverty and subsistence-level incomes.
Connect Malthus’s theory to modern challenges
How might Malthus’s ideas about population growth and food supply apply to contemporary global challenges?
Consider examples like overpopulation and food insecurity.
Malthus’s ideas are relevant to contemporary challenges like overpopulation, food insecurity, and resource depletion. Rapid population growth in some regions still strains food supplies and natural resources, leading to poverty and environmental degradation. Efforts to promote sustainability and family planning align with Malthus’s concept of limiting growth to avoid crises.
What is the Malthusian Population Trap, and how does it explain low per capita income levels in developing countries?
The Malthusian Population Trap, also known as the low-level equilibrium population trap, describes a scenario where population growth outpaces income growth, leading to stagnant or declining per capita income. This equilibrium occurs at a subsistence income level (S), where population size and income remain stable but low, preventing economic development.
Imagine a graph where income per capita is on the horizontal axis, and two curves represent total income growth and population growth rates on the vertical axis. As income per capita rises, population growth first increases, peaks, and then declines. Total income growth initially rises with income but eventually levels off. What happens when the total income growth curve is below the population growth curve?
When the total income growth curve is below the population growth curve, per capita income falls because population is growing faster than income. This situation moves the society back toward subsistence levels.
In a graph where population growth and total income growth rates are plotted against income per capita, there is an equilibrium point
𝑆 where income and population growth are balanced. Describe why this equilibrium is stable
At equilibrium 𝑆, if income per capita rises slightly above 𝑆, population growth exceeds income growth, pulling income back down. Conversely, if income per capita falls slightly below 𝑆, income growth exceeds population growth, pushing income back up. This creates a stable balance at 𝑆.
