Population growth Flashcards
Introduction
Introduction: There is a clear contrast between the high population growth of developing countries and the relatively stable populations of most developed countries. For example, during the last 60 years, Pakistan’s population has increased from 33.5 million (according to 1951 Census) to over 146 million today. It was feared that if the population growth is not checked, with the passage of time, poverty, unemployment and illiteracy would become unmanageable.
Three points
The Malthus Argument
Demands on public services
Differences in fertility rates
The Malthus argument point
The Malthus Argument: Malthus presented his well-known theory of population in 1798, which stated that whereas population grew in geometrical progression, food resources increased in arithmetical progression. As such, although output of a country might increase, its GDP/capital might fall if population growth might fall. These falling incomes result in a loss of living standards, and the problems associated with the savings gap.
The Malthus argument evaluation
Evaluation: Ester Boserup wrote in her book “The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure”, that population levels determine agricultural methods, rather than agricultural methods determining population (via food supply). A major point of her book is that “necessity is the mother of invention”. She suggests that Malthus had underestimated the impact of technological advancement such as mechanisation.
Public services point
Demands on Public Services: In the short term, rapid population growth can cause seriously increased demand on public services. Healthcare costs and demand for education services are likely to be high without any increase in a country’s output. In fact a dip in output could occur as women are temporarily lost from the labour market. As such it is not unlikely during this period of growth for DGP/capita to initially fall.
Public services evaluation
Evaluation: However perhaps many developing countries require population growth to improve efficiency? Provision of education and health services can be difficult to provide efficiently when they serve a population that is geographically widely spread. Japan has a surface area of 378,000 km compared to 796,000 km of Pakistan and it had a population of 126 million compared to 132 million of Pakistan (as of 1998). Still, Japan did not consider itself as overpopulated and it has the second highest GNP per capita in the world.
Fertility rate point
Differences in Fertility Rates: Zambia’s population is projected to increase 941% by the end of the century – the highest growth rate in of any country in the world. On average, poor women with no formal education have more than eight children while educated women in the wealthiest fifth of the population have fewer than four. Most children born in Zambia do so into poverty. With 35% of the population living in urban areas, rapid growth is placing a heavy burden on housing, roads, water, sanitation, healthcare and energy provision. The prevalence of slum dwellings, and associated poor health conditions and crime limit the development of the economy.
Fertility rate evaluation
Evaluation: Improved education about family planning and provision of contraceptives might reduce the population forecasts for Zambia in the future. Aid organisations and government agencies might be able to check the fertility rates that exist. These initiatives can also have wider benefits given the high prevalence of HIV/Aids within the region.
