Population Estimation & Economic Analysis Flashcards
uses the change in population (increase or decline) over a period of time and extrapolates that change into the future, in a linear fashion. For example, if the population of Plannersville has grown an average of 1,000 people per year over the last 20 years, it would be assumed to grow by 1,000 people annually in the future.
Linear Method of population estimation
uses the rate of growth (or decline), i.e., the percentage change in population over a period of time to estimate the current or future population. In the same Plannersville example, the population has been increasing by 2% per year for the last 20 years. This percentage change is extrapolated into the future. Two percent of 2,000 people is larger than 2% of 1,000 people. The result is a curved line.
exponential or modified exponential method (if S shaped line where growth will slow or stop)
uses any available data indirectly related to population size, such as housing starts, or new drivers licenses. It then estimates the population using a ratio, such as the average household size (from the U.S. Census). For instance, with the average household size at 2.5, data on 100 new single-family building permits that are issued this year, would yield an estimate of 250 new people will be added to the community.
symptomatic method
a relatively simple way to estimate or project population. This method uses the ratio of the population in a city and a county (or a larger geographical unit) at a known point in time, such as the decennial Census.
This ratio is used to project the current or future population. For example, the population of Plannersville is 20% of the county population in 2000. If we know that the county population is 20,000 in 2005, we can then estimate the population of Plannersville as 4,000 (20%).
step-down ratio method
method multiplies Census Bureau data for the number of housing units by the occupancy rate and persons per household. This method is reliable for slow growth or stable communities but is less reliable in quickly changing communities.
Distributed Housing Unit Method
method uses the current population plus natural increase (more births, fewer deaths) and net migration (more in-migration, less out-migration) to calculate a future population
Cohort Survival Method - most accurate population projection
total number of births per 1,000 people
Crude Birth Rate
number of babies born per 1,000 females of childbearing age
General Fertility Rate
the difference between the number of people moving in and the number of people moving out
net migration
in-migration minus out-migration divided by the population of the area
Net Migration Rate
looks at basic and non-basic economic activities. Basic activities are those that can be exported, while non-basic activities are those that are locally oriented. The exporting industries make up the economic base of a region
Economic base analysis
the ratio of an industry’s share of local employment divided by its share of the nation (or other levels of government)
location quotient
location quotient of less than one
importing economy
location quotient of greater than one
exporting economy
analyzes a local economy in comparison with a larger economy - analysis looks at the differential shift, proportional shift, and economic growth
Shift-share analysis; total employment change in an industry between 1990 and 2000 is equal to the economic growth plus the differential shift plus the proportional shift
