Population and Society Flashcards
What is demography?
Demography is the study of human populations. It studies the size, composition and structure which make up the general components.
What is the crude death rate?
Crude birth rate indicates the number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear.
What are the 4 factors that influence fertility?
- Proportion of women who are permanently or temporarily unable to conceive (infecund).
- Proportion of women either married or in a sexual union.
- Percentage of women using contraception.
- Level of induced abortion
What proportion of women do South Korea have using contraception?
82% (2019) use contraception
In 2018, what did the USA TFR drop too?
1.7, it was the lowest ever recorded
What are the features of stage 1 DTM?
Stage 1: Young population with high births and mortality rates. Minimal population change (>0.5%).
What are the features of stage 2 DTM?
Stage 2: Mortality rate decreases but birth still high. Population growth occurs.
What are the features of stage 3 DTM?
Stage 3: Decline in both birth and mortality rates, so continues population growth
What are the features of the stage 4 DTM?
Stage 4: Low fertility and mortality causes stable population size but with a high proportion of older.
What are the 4 stages of the DTM called?
- Pre-modern
- Urban/Industrialising
- Mature Industrial
- Post industrial
What are 4 reasons for the declining fertility rates?
- Child centredness
- Economic Impacts
- Psycological Impact
- Decline in infant mortality
What are 4 critiques of the DTM?
- It’s a description rather than a theory.
- Assumes population changes due to modernisation and industrialisation.
- Doesn’t acknowledge variations in timing or speed of the stages.
- Doesn’t acknowledge level of application over time.
What was life expectancy in 1800?
29
What was life expectancy in 1950?
60 in Western nations, 29-41 in African and Asian nations
What are the 5 main factors influencing life expectancy?
- Medical care/technology
- Life style (smoking, diet, alcohol and risky behaviour).
- Social networks (the risk of loneliness).
- Genes
- Stressors/disadvantages (socio-economic disadvantage).
What is it called when deaths increase in the middle age?
Deaths of despair
1. Soviet Union collapse led to men dying.
2. UK/USA have high male suicide rates.
What are 4 reasons which influence variation between male and female death rates?
- Anatomical and physiological reasons.
- The extra X chromosome.
- Oestrogens (which cause anti-inflammatory, Vaso-protective and enhance immune defences, where as progesterone has immunosuppressive effects an increases the mortality risk for certain diseases)
- Male excess mortality exists in most animal species.
What are 4 behavioural and social factors which may influence variation in death rates between men and women?
- More smoking and alcohol consumption among men.
- Men are more risk taking.
- Men subjected to greater health risks at work due to gendered occupations, And are generally more susceptible to stress.
- Women are more likely consult a doctor when noticing symptoms.
What proportion of babies born in 2015 will live to 100?
1/3
How many centurions live in the UK as of 2016?
14,910 people aged 100+ (centenarians) in the UK in 2016
How many oldest-olds (85+) live in England Wales as of 2011?
1.25million
What proportion of the UK population do 90+ make up?
1%
What is the epidemiological transition?
The epidemiology transition is the characteristic shift in the disease pattern of a population as mortality falls during the demographic transition. Infectious diseases decline while chronic degenerative disease increases in commonality, which causes gradual shift in age pattern.
Why were more men impacted by the Spanish flu?
War and work.
Who came up with the epidemiological transition?
Omran (1971)
What is the 1st epidemiological proposition in the transition?
- Proposition 1: Mortality is a fundamental factor in explaining the dynamics of population growth. It includes changes such as:
- less frequent and sizeable fluctuations in mortality
- Longer-term decline in mortality
- But mortality could have more of an extreme impact on populations (e.g. through famines and war)
What is the 2nd epidemiological proposition in the transition?
- Proposition 2: During the epidemiological transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are gradually replaced by degenerative and man-made disease. There are 3 stages which lead to this point:
Stage 1: Age of pestilence & famine (high & fluctuating mortality rates, very low life expectancy fluctuating between 20 & 40 years).
Stage 2: Age of receding pandemics (progressive declines in mortality and epidemics become less frequent or disappear; life expectancy at birth increases steadily from 30 to 50 years.
Stage 3: Age of degenerative and man-made diseases. (continuing decline in mortality rates to stability levels, life expectancy exceeding 50 years
What are the 3 stages within proposition 2 of the epidemiological transition?
Stage 1: Age of pestilence & famine (high & fluctuating mortality rates, very low life expectancy fluctuating between 20 & 40 years).
Stage 2: Age of receding pandemics (progressive declines in mortality and epidemics become less frequent or disappear; life expectancy at birth increases steadily from 30 to 50 years.
Stage 3: Age of degenerative and man-made diseases. (continuing decline in mortality rates to stability levels, life expectancy exceeding 50 years
What is the 3rd epidemiological proposition in the transition?
- Proposition 3: During the epidemiological transition, the most profound changes in health and disease patterns benefit children & young women.
What is the 4th epidemiological proposition in the transition?
- Proposition 4: The shifts in health & disease patterns, and reduction on mortality, that characterise the epidemiological transition are closely associated with other demographic changes (eg: population growth, age structure change)
What is the 5th epidemiological proposition in the transition?
- Proposition 5: Peculiar variations in the pattern, the pace, the determinants & the consequences of population change differentiate 3 basic models of the epidemiological transition:
- CLASSICAL / WESTERN MODEL (UK)
- ACCELERATED / SEMI-WESTERN MODEL (Japan)
- SLOW / DELAYED MODEL (African nations)
What are the 3 categories that Omran provides to explain decline in mortality?
- ‘Ecobiologic’ – balance between biology and the environment (recession of certain diseases).
- Socioeconomic/political/cultural – improved standards of living, nutrition, hygiene.
- Medical and public health.
What stage do Olshanky and Ault (1986) provide for the new stages of the DTM?
Stage 4: Age of delayed degenerative diseases Olshansky and Ault (1986). This is the idea that personal behaviour changes – such as reduction in smoking and increase in exercise helps health.
What stage does Gaziano (2010) provide for the New DTM stage?
Stage 5: Age of Obesity and Inactivity (Gaziano, 2010). (2 others)
What stage do Case and Deaton (2017) provide for the New DTM stage?
Stage 5: deaths of despair (2 others)
What stage do Olshanky et al (1997) provide for the New DTM stage?
Stage 5: Age of emergent and re-emergent infections (2 others)
How has travel impacted disease and the epidemiological transition?
A reversal of epidemiological transition. In some nations, there has been a rise in the communicable disease – including Ebola, SARS, Cholera etc. This has been enhanced by travel.
What is neonatal mortality?
- Neonatal Mortality: The probability of dying within the first 28 days of life.
What is infant mortality?
- Infant mortality: The probability of dying between birth and the first birthday.
What is the average infant mortality rate in developed countries?
1/20 children dying before their 5th birthday rather than 1/3 children.
How do Libya and UK vary in regard to infant under 5 mortality rate?
It took the UK 148 years (1800-1950) compared to Libya 31 years (1960-1990) to cut U5MR to 1/20.
What does Gakidou et al (2010) argue about child mortality between nations?
Some nation with similar levels of income have varying levels of child mortality because:
This is due to greater investments in health, investment in social services or education, quality of governance, in-country equity or epidemiological or environmental factors.
How does Feng et al (2012) categorise 4 the determinants in U5MR?
Socio-economic, biodemographic, environmental and biological.
What is a socio-economic U5MR determinate?
Education: Parents with higher rates of education have lower rates of child mortality. This is more important in maternal education rather than paternal education.
What are the biodemographic factors influencing U5MR?
- Birth order: First order bus have increased mortality within the neonatal period. Increased risk from a higher order births (after six births and above) continues throughout childhood (Mahy 2003).
- Maternal age: U-shaped curve with children of both younger and older mothers experiencing higher mortality. Again, risks associated with both older and younger mothers are most marked in the neonatal period (Mahy 2003).
- Birth spacing: A preceding birth interval of less than two years is associated with markedly higher mortality. A birth spacing between 3-5 years is optimal.
How would birth spacing impact births in Nigeria?
In Nigeria, if women spaced births by 3 years+ then mortality would reduce by 28%.
What are the environmental factors influencing U5MR?
- Water and sanitation.
- Indoor air pollution: linked to the use of coal and biomass fuels for heating and cooking. There is a clear link between indoor air pollution and acute respiratory tract infection, which is one of the major causes of death in under 5s.
What biological determinants impact U5MR?
- Multiple births: Increased risk factor.
- Sex: Mortality is naturally higher in males than females, particularly in the neonatal period. However, this is reversed in some regions because of differential care practises.
What 6 factors have driven decline in child mortality?
- Improved women’s education and literacy.
- Falling fertility and increased birth intervals.
- Improved real average capita household income.
- Improved nutritional stats.
- Improved environmental conditions such as safe water supply, sanitation and housing.
- Increasing coverage of some health services, particularly preventive care (immunisation, Insecticide treated bed Nets, Vitamin A supplementation.
What are 8 global challenges in reducing child mortality?
- Progress is uneven.
- Conflict or fragile states.
- Increased inequality between countries.
- Continuing inequality between countries.
- Poor access in some countries to preventative services.
- Less progress due to the slow easy wins becoming less available.
- COVID-19 derailed child health activities.
- Poor progress in neonatal deaths.
Who was Malthus?
Thomas Malthus was an English Demographer and Economist who was around from 1766-1834. He was famous for the essay “Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)”.
What did the “Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)” suggest about populayion?
- Human populations grow geometrically (2,4,8 etc.) while food production grows at an arithmetic (1,2,3,4) rate.
This means that population will outstrip resources.
What is the carrying capacity?
A term from Malthus to describe the eventual maximum of the population based on resources. In the end, population is reduced to its subsistence capacity.
What are some features of the carrying capacity being reached?
When population reaches carrying load there would be war, famine or disease causing a population crash.
What did Malthus argue would reverse the population crash?
Malthus argues that the population crash could be prevented by preventative checks, moral restraint, marry later and only when able to support a family. He did not support birth control.
What did Malthus argue about poverty?
He opposed the poor laws and instead saw migration as a better response to poverty than charity.
What are 4 critiques of Malthus?
- Predictions of increasing misery and recurrent “positive checks” were not born out in Europe. As population increased, increased standard of living with famines declined.
- Underestimated increase in food production as a result of the industrial revolution and new farming methods
- Did not consider food imports (made possible by industrial exports) including the use of refrigeration
- Under-estimated voluntary attempts to check fertility / use of contraception – birth rate naturally falls as standard of living rises.
What are neo-Malthusians?
The 1940s saw rise in these Malthusian ideas due to increasing population in LIC, this is causing food shortages so people argued preventative measures should be taken.
Who is Ehrlich and what does he stand for?
A neo-Malthusian who came up with the population bomb.
What does the Population Bomb argue?
Ehrlich argues that overpopulation will result in hugely increased mortality in many countries as a result of food shortage in the coming decades. He argued “The battle … is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”(Ehrlich, 1968).
What did Ehrlich argue as an alternative to manage the population bomb? 3 things.
- Need to combine agricultural production and population control (ideally voluntary but if that isn’t successful, forced).
- The birth rate must be brought into balance with the death rate or mankind will breed itself to oblivion.
- Suggests some quite draconian solutions – heavy taxation of infant goods like nappies, call for research into mass sterilisation agents.
How does Sen counter Ehrlich argument about the population bomb?
There has never been a famine in a functioning democracy - so perhaps the ‘famines’ and wars occur as a result of poor leadership.
What do Cornucopians argue?
Cornucopians argue that population growth is both good for the economy and for the environment. They argues that advances in technology can take care of society’s needs. It is the concept that more people, more likely to have people who will invent things and identify technological solutions and advances. Furthermore, you need people who will work in industry, and those people contribute to markets and taxes, helping the economy.
Who is Ester Boserup?
Danish economist with an interest in agricultural development
What did Boserup argue about population?
- Wrote “The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure” in 1964 – mostly based on her experience in India.
- Theory of agricultural intensification -increased population will increase food production – ‘necessity is the mother of invention’ .
- Innovations happen when population density causes strain on food supply.
What is the Green Revolution?
- The Green revolution – since 1930s technological changes in farming led to high yield crops, chemical fertilisers, pesticides, mechanised farming methods, and irrigation systems.
- Transformed food production in many developing countries particularly India and other parts of Asia.
- Africa lagging behind in terms of agricultural advances, but beginning to catch up.
How has cereal signalled the Green revolution?
Production of cereal crops tripled in last 50 years, with only a 30% increase in land area cultivated.
Who is Julian Simon?
Julian Lincoln Simon (1932 –1998)[1] was an American professor of business administration who wrote 1981 The Ultimate Resource. He is a cornucopan.
What does Simon argue about resources?
- Argues that resource are not naturally limited - as natural resources become scarce demand rises meaning that people look at other ways of obtaining or substituting them – new methods of extraction, recycling, more economic use, development of alternatives etc.
- He suggests that the ever-decreasing price of commodities (when wage adjusted) demonstrates there is no shortage.
What is the modern neo-Malthusian argument?
That they are right due to the issues about environmental sustainablity.
What is the Simon-Ehrlich wager and who won?
It was a bed hat 5 key natural resources would either increase in price due to scarcity, or become abundant as more ways were discovered to extract etc.
By 1990, Simon won as they has decreased in price in respect to wages.
What does Lam (2011) argue about global warming and population?
Global warming is one of the main challenges the world will face in the coming decades. Becker (2013) agreed but argued it should be seen as climate change to encompass all change.
How much has sea level risen by since 1900?
20cm, 3.3mm a yeat
By how much has the ice sheets shrunk by?
4% by 1970s
How much more vulnerable are less developed countries than industrialised countries?
20-30x
When was the hottest summer since 1540?
2003
How was France impacted by the 2003 heatwave?
Many excess deaths. Older people are often more susceptible to extreme temperatures due to limited ability to thermoregulate.
Why did heat related deaths decline from 1900-2000 in the USA?
Technological advances such as A/C. However, heat related deaths did increase from 2002/2016.
How is the heath of new-borns (birthweight and length) related to heat (3 reason)?
- Household food insecurity
- Increased heat stress
- Altered disease environment
These could cause an increase in the birth rate due to replacement of children if they die.
What 4 ways can climate change impact fertility?
- Crop yields and income, whereby favourable socio-economic resources promote childbearing.
- In areas where climate change disrupts agricultural livelihoods, climate extremes may lead to disruption in contraceptive usage if financial resources necessary for access are diminished.
- Reductions in maternal nutritional status, increases in physically demanding activities, and reductions in household resources, factors which in turn contribute to reducing fertility.
- Concerns about climate issues may suppress fertility intentions.
What is fecundity?
The ability of a woman to reproduce (number of possible children).
What is cohort birth rate?
The number of children that a specific age cohort of women have had. This is historical and is only worked out after the women reach a certain age – such as 40.
Why did early fertility decline occur in France?
Decline in 1th century due to poorness.
Why did early fertility decline occur in UK?
Industrial revolution
How do Notestein (1945) and Davis (1955) argue about rationalisation and modernisation in regard to childrearing?
Modernization (in the form of education, urbanization etc) brought about rationalization to traditional society. This causes reduced birth rate.
What does Becker (1960, 1981 and 1991) argue contributes to the decline in fertility?
Supply and demand theory. This suggests that children are consumer durables and require extensive material cost. This caused a change to the quality over quantity and the idea of child-centeredness.
What do Cleland and Wilson (1987) argue contributed to the decline in fertility?
Socio-economic conditions such as secularization and individualization.
What does Caldwell (1980) argue contributed to the later fertility decline in developing countries?
Caldwell (1980) argues that there was a change to the nuclear family following the move from agriculture. This saw children as an economic liability rather than an economic asset which was linked to the Westernization of the world. This has led to decline in family size.
What did Joshi/Schultz (2013) find about family planning in Bangladesh?
1977: Saw those in family planning programs decrease their fertility by 17% in Bangladesh.
What 3 things have contributed to family planning success?
- Oral contraceptives approved in US in 1960
- Spread of IUDs, condoms
- Government Programs.
These began following WW2 with pressure from the USA leading to sterilization etc.