POL107 Concepts Flashcards
1
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Analytical Tools
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- Models that simplify reality and reduce complexity. - Analysts make choices on what to put in their model and what to leave out, therefore each model will paint a different picture
2
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Levels of Analysis
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- refer to different perspectives and scales at which a situation can be examined, to analyse and understand political phenomena from various dimensions.
- Beginning at a micro level and then moving away to the mezzo and finally macro level, the aim of this model is to reduce complexity through organising contributing factors into these three categories, determining what can be left out and what is essential to explaining the outcome.
3
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Micro/ individual level
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Examines U.S President JFK and characteristics unique to himself himself, how did his personality, personal motivations, opinions, influence his decisions and the overall outcome
4
Q
Mezzo/state level
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- Examines the environment in which the individual operated, in this case the U.S Gov. its characteristics, policies, national interests, security concerns, foreign policy objectives
5
Q
Macro/systemic level
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Examines the broader context of the Cold War, the opposing ideologies of the U.S and Russia towards communism, considering the impact of alliances and global power politics on the development and resolution of the crisis.
6
Q
According to Harmann (3 characteristics to a crisis)
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- A significant threat to something that we value
- An element of surprise → if you were expecting it, it was not a crisis
- Time constraints on our abilities to make decisions
7
Q
Harmann’s Decision Cube
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Three dimensions: Time, threat, and awareness.
- the box represents different environments which lead to different outcomes… the further away your get the lesser the level of the crisis and ultimate crises is at the corner of the box where all three variables intersect.
- the likelihood of good and bad decisions can differ depending on where you are in the box.
8
Q
Rational Policy
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- This model, used to analyse the process of decision making, focuses on the decision maker itself.
- It treats the government as a single, unitary actor, acting rationally in order to achieve clear and well defined goals through the most beneficial and least costly solution.
- The actor is able to implement the solution well and ultimately come to the correct decision.
9
Q
Bureaucratic Model
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- Decisions are made by government organizations.
- The state is a collection of bureaucrats, heads of departments, military, administration, each representing their own bureaucracy and influenced by their preferences that will further their own interests and bureaucracy.
- Each bureaucracy is competing for power, and thus the decision that is chosen was not necessarily the rational one, but the result of the balance of power and bureaucratic infights.
10
Q
Organizational Model
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- The model posits that the government is not a single, unified actor but a collection of various organisations with distinct interests and cultures.
- Organisations are not fully rational, when faced with a problem they don’t think about it rationally, instead they take an automatic response through standard operating procedures.
- These standard operating procedures are routine sets of actions that are regulated and pre-ordained, and cannot cover all eventualities or fit the particular conditions being faced in a given situation.
- In many decision environments organisations pair problems and solutions randomly, suggesting that the outcomes are completely random and organisations are significantly rational than originally thought
11
Q
March of Folly
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- As identified by Barbara Tuchman, a march of folly is defined by the pursuit of policies or actions by governments that are counter to their own self-interests, resulting in a lack of rational decision making.
- Tuchman states that there are three conditions for a march of folly;
1. The policy needs to be counter productive and recognized by people at the time. (Presence of a Cassandra)
2. Alternative Policies were available.
3. The decision is made by a group and over more than one political life-span. (Generational decision)
12
Q
Cognitive Model
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- provides a framework for understanding the mental processes that guide specific individuals through the various stages of decision-making, and ultimately what leads to deviations in rationality and why some actors behave in ways that lead them to make suboptimal choices.
- Crucial to this model is internal vs. external validity. - While internal validity focuses on the accuracy of causal inferences within a specific study, external validity concerns the extent to which study findings can be generalised to broader populations, settings, or time periods.
- Both are essential to ensure the robustness, relevance, and applicability of research.
13
Q
Clinical Psychology
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- Involves analysing an individual’s relationships throughout their life.
- This model relies on a psychological profile to be made to rationalise the way an individual actor behaves and explain their unique decision making and reasoning.
14
Q
Social Psychology
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Group decisions in a social setting affects the way in which individuals behave.
15
Q
Obedience
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- In this context, people will always obey the directions of an authority figure, even if they are pushed to do acts that they know are wrong.
- This model explains that, through authority, people are driven to kill, and commit some of the worst acts known to man.
Ex: Stanley Milgram Shock Experiment
16
Q
GroupThink
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-claims that deviations from rationality can occur when a group conforms to the consensus of the group rather than the best option.
-It assumes that, in group settings, people are reluctant to voice their concerns and raise objections
- Ex: During the ExComm deliberations, Kennedy removed himself from the committee because he acknowledged that his presence could persuade other members to conform to his ideas and seek his approval.
17
Q
Fundamental Attribute Error
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- Attribution describes how we explain the behaviour of others.
- This theory relies on two opposing forms of attribution.
- Dispositional attribution credits behaviour to the actors character, while situational attribution credits behaviour to the situation in which the actor operates.
- Generally, we tend to assign dispositional attribution to our enemies and situational attribution to our friends, leading to a misreading of a situation, biases, and deviations from rationality.
18
Q
Cognitive Psychology
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- Examines the cognitive processes used to make decisions - perception, memory, reasoning, judgement - and how they contribute to biases and heuristics.
- This theory assumes that we are all working with the same “hardware” when making decisions.
19
Q
Prospect Theory
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- Developed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, this theory posits that the way in which we frame things is extremely important.
- It proposes that individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, with losses having a greater psychological impact than equivalent gains, in other words,
- We tend to be more risk averse in the domain of gains, and more risk acceptant in the domain of losses.
- Ex: Iran Hostage Crisis. Jimmy Carter was operating in the domain of extreme losses - Inflation, Oil crisis, Afghanistan, Iran - making him more risk averse and likely to gamble, ultimately leading to the disastrous “Operation Eagle Claw”.
20
Q
Cognitive Closure
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- posits that when an actor has made their decision, even in the face of uncertainty or incomplete information, they tend to stick to this decision, so much so that information is made to fit this theory and all other information that does not fit is rejected.
- Ex: Yom Kippur War. Eli Zeira became married to the idea that war was impossible, so much so that he ignored clear and open signs given by Hamas and even his own intelligence. The cognitive closure reached in this case could perhaps be because his professional reputation was hinged on this idea, and couldn’t accept he could be wrong or else his reputation could be tarnished. Another explanation could be arrogance or hubris, and the undeniable uncertainty of the situation.
21
Q
Organizational/ Corporate Culture (Deal and Kennedy)
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- mapped all organisations based on two variables, the first examining high or low risk, the second examining rapid or slow feedback.
- based on this organizations can be out into four categories through which we can predict the culture of the organization
