Poker Math that Matters Flashcards
Into what two sections can we break accurate assumptions?
Opponents range of hands, and how they will play that range.
What are the two keys to good poker?
Accurate assumptions
Making the best decisions
Which of the two keys to good poker is developed through playing experience?
Accurate assumptions
On which of the two keys to good poker should beginners spend a lot of time?
Making the best decisions.
How can we use mathematics in poker?
Mathematics shows us which decision is the best play.
What are the 4 different ways we can look at results?
Real bucks, Sklansky bucks, G-bucks, reciprocal bucks
What are results based on real bucks?
What we won or lost on a given hand.
What are results based on Sklansky bucks?
Individual bets in hand vs. hand matchups.
What are results based on G-bucks?
Our expectation value vs. our opponents range.
What are results based on reciprocal bucks?
Our strategy vs. our opponents strategy.
What % must we win after villian bets 3x pot.
43%
What % must we win after villian bets 2x pot?
40%
What % must we win after villian bets Pot?
33%
What % must we win after villian bets 3/4 pot?
%30
What % must we win after villian bets 2/3 pot?
28%
What % must we win after villian bets 1/2 pot?
25%
What % must we win after villian bets 1/3 pot?
20%
What % must we win after villian bets 1/4 pot?
16%
What odds are offered on a 3x pot bet?
1.33 : 1
What odds are offered on a 2x pot bet?
1.5 : 1
What odds are offered on a Pot bet?
2:1
What odds are offered on a 3/4 pot bet?
2.33 : 1
What odds are offered on a 2/3 pot bet?
2.5 : 1
What odds are offered on a 1/2 pot bet?
3:1
What odds are offered on a 1/3 pot bet?
4:1
What odds are offered on a 1/4 pot bet?
5:1
How much must we win if villain bets and we call with 35% equity?
2x the bet
How much must we win if villain bets and we call with 25% equity?
3x the bet
How much must we win if villain bets and we call with 20% equity?
4x the bet
How much must we win if villain bets and we call with 15% equity?
6x the bet
How much must we win if villain bets and we call with 10% equity?
9x the bet
How many combos of suited hands are left after 0 cards from the suit have been exposed?
78 suited combos left
How many combos of suited hands are left after 1 card from the suit has been exposed?
66 suited combos left
How many combos of suited hands are left after 2 cards from the suit have been exposed?
55 suited combos left
How many combos of suited hands are left after 3 cards from the suit have been exposed?
45 suited combos left
How many combos of suited hands are left after 4 cards from the suit have been exposed?
36 suited combos left
How many combos of suited hands are left after 5 cards from the suit have been exposed?
28 suited combos left
How many combos of suited hands are left after 6 cards from the suit have been exposed?
21 suited combos left
Bluffing is used to what?
Exploit opponents and helps us to get value from our strong hands when playing against good observant opponents.
When risking x to win .5x we must be good how often?
67%
When risking x to win .8x we must be good how often?
55%
When risking x to win x we must be good how often?
50%
When risking x to win 1.5x we must be good how often?
40%
When risking x to win 2x we must be good how often?
33%
When risking x to win 3x we must be good how often?
25%
When considering bluffing with a pot size raise or 2x pot bet, how often must we be good?
67%
When considering bluffing with a 1/2 pot size raise, how often must we be good?
55%
When considering bluffing with a pot bet, how often must we be good?
50%
When considering bluffing with a 2/3pot bet, how often must we be good?
40%
When considering bluffing with a 1/2pot bet, how often must we be good?
33%
When considering bluffing with a 1/3 pot bet, how often must we be good?
25%
What’s the first step in determining your equity against a range?
1) Determine your equity against each hand in the range.
What’s the second step in determining your equity against a range?
2) Multiply your range equity by the # of combinations for that hand.
What’s the third step in determining your equity against a range?
3) Add together the results from step 1 and 2 for each hand in the range.
What’s the fourth step in determining your equity against a range?
4) Divide the results from step three by the total combinations in the hand range.
How do we figure our Reward:Risk ratio?
1) Total pot size times our equity.
2) Subtract the result from step one, from our bet.
3) Examine the risk:reward ratio.
What are three key variables when analyzing whether or not a semi-bluff shove is a good move?
1) SPR
2) How often villain folds.
3) Showdown equity
How to chunk whole stack with an SPR of 13?
Pot, pot, pot.
How to chunk whole stack with an SPR of 9?
Pot, 3/4pot, 3/4pot.
How to chunk whole stack with an SPR of 7?
3/4pot, 3/4 pot, 3/4 pot.
How to chunk whole stack with an SPR of 5.5?
Pot, 1/2pot, 1/2 pot.
How to chunk whole stack with an SPR of 3.5?
1/2 pot,1/2 pot,1/2 pot.
What are the two requirements for us to be concerned about counter-exploitation?
1) Our opponents must observe the exploitable behavior.
2) Our opponent must properly adjust based on his observations.
What is the danger of slow-playing?
Slow-playing reduces exponential growth of the pot over multiple streets.
How do we create a smaller SPR?
We create a smaller SPR by raising larger pre-flop.
What factors make it difficult to create an SPR we desire?
Can’t determine how many callers.
Different stacks may be left to act.
Even with one caller, effective stack sizes may be different.
How often will you flop a set when calling PF with a pocket pair?
12%
