Past Exam Questions Flashcards
Differences in trading before and after AT
- Automation in executing trades
- Role of trader has changed to more tactician
- Investment in technology for investment
- Volatility in the market - powerful market participants bullying the market
- As it has become more integrated, AT has increased liquidity in the market
What are two aspects of AT platforms that can be quantitatively assessed?
- Implementation shortfall for execution algorithms is measurable
- Latency
Implementation Shortfall
Difference in value of a notional portfolio with trades executed at observed market price at time of deal and value of actual portfolio after execution of the actual trade. The lower the better
Latency
Quant measurement. Time difference between stimulus and response (order generation by algorithm and response). Want first mover advantage and low latency
Quantity Theory of Money
M x V = P x Q
M = the amount of money in the economy
V = the velocity of money - the number of times money circulates the economy over a specified period
P = average price level of goods, services, and assets
Q = the volume of goods, services, and assets produced/transacted
What does the Quantity Theory of Money tell us?
- According to the Quantity Theory of Money, if the money supply doubled, it would not necessarily make people better off
- Unless an increase in the volume of goods, services, and assets accompanied it
- Which would likely lead to a doubling of prices and still the same amount of things to buy.
- This will bring a rising inflation level as the buying capacity of one unit of currency decreases
Quantitative Easing (QE)
A form of monetary policy in which a central bank purchases securities to achieve the desired outcome of boosting the money supply and liquidity in the market
Quantitative Tightening (QT)
A form of monetary policy in which a central bank sells securities, in particular sells bonds or lets them mature, to achieve the desired outcome - reducing liquidity in the market
- Key monetary policy at the moment
What is the current climate to QE or QT?
The current climate in the US, and globally, is for a period of QT to happen.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has been shrinking since July 2022 and will continue this trend until the middle of 2023
In Europe there has also been an expectation of QT
QT is in response to QE which pumped a lot of liquidity into the system
Too much liquidity, so reducing securities held has no massive impact. Less extreme impact than QE. However, as further liquidity removal occurs, it could affect multiple markets
What is the effect of QE on asset prices?
- Asset price inflation
- Central bank purchases will push up (bond) prices in those (bond) markets
- Asset prices increase in other markets too as (bond) sellers will look to buy other assets to replace them, etc - this continues recursively
- Speculation further adds to inflation of prices
What is the impact of QE on wealth and economic inequity?
- Asset owners have wealth increases
- No assets, no gains - will be worse off having no participation
- Increase in inequality
What is the impact of QE on hedge funds?
Inflation will make it harder to see what is over/under values
Stock price of companies with weak fundamentals could increase for a sustained period of time
Investors will grow in numbers as more people have money to invest in assets
Investors become more wealthy
What is the impact of QE on economic growth?
- Growth increases due to the wealth effect
- People with wealth gains have higher purchasing power - spend more so economic activity increases
- Should mean increased employment
- Most impact will be in areas with higher concentration asset owners
- Those without assets will gain from the creation of jobs. - money trickles down
- Not massive growth
What is the impact of QE on interest rates?
- Lowers interest rates on savings and loans - stimulates spending in the economy
- Increasing the supply of money lowers interest rates further - provides liquidity to the banking system
- On most fundamental level it is because interest rate is the price for money
What is the impact of QE on price inflation?
- Retail inflation rates stay low - less wealthy people will not see significant gains from QE
- Retail price inflation my turn to deflation as relatively less well-off are worse off - demand for normal basket of goods falls
Example: House prices going up so need to save and don’t spend as much on groceries
What is the impact of QE on bank lending?
- Banks have more cash from selling bonds to central banks - can lend more
- Will only lend to those who can repay (those with greater level of assets)
- Low interest rates have detrimental impact on banks’ lending margins - dampens overall willingness to lend
What are the risks arising from QE?
- Likely lead to significant bubbles in asset markets
- Low interest rates mean that future equity earnings will be discounted using very low interest rates
- As interest rates move towards 0, theoretically, equity prices more to infinity - overvalued
- QE likely to impact corporate finance decisions, meaning otherwise poor projects will get finance as they show profitability using the low interest rates
- Idea of TINA - ‘There is No Alternative’. The idea was that the investor needed to invest, and the least overvalued alternative was equities
What does QE impact in terms of corporate firms?
QE to push money into areas such a corporate bonds, thereby lowering corporations’ borrowing costs and, hopefully, sparking the productive use of capital
What impact does QT have in terms of asset price?
- Asset price deflation
- Central bank eliminating its assets will push bond prices down
- Asset prices decrease in other markets also as bond investors will look to sell other assets when they are buying back bonds, this continues recursively for many market players exacerbating the price decrease
- Speculation adds to the deflation of prices also
What impact will QT have on wealth?
- Asset owners have wealth decreases
- No assets - gains. Will be better off having no participation
- Those less well-off hopefully benefit from less inflated prices
What impact will QT have in terms of hedge funds?
- Deflation of prices will make it harder to see what stocks are over/under valued - the stock prices of great companies could decrease for a sustained period of time
- Investors will deplete as people have less liquidity to invest in assets
- There is a lull in investor gains - gains fall
What impact will QT have in terms of economic growth?
- Slows economic growth as there is less money to be spent
- Hope is that people with less wealth have higher purchasing power
- Demand for goods and services decreases with cost of borrowing increasing so deflation occurs
- Not massive growth nd may just be transitioning before asset prices revert to the mean levels in time
What impact will QT have in terms of bank lending?
- Higher interest rates have a positive impact on banks’ lending margins, increasing overall willingness to lend
- May lend to peple they previously wouldn’t have because of favourable margins
- Less demand for borrowing as costs are high
What impact does QT have in terms of wages?
Decreased asset prices mean purchasing power of these real wages are higher
What impact will QT have in terms of price inflation?
Interest rate hikes are known as the central bank’s one major tool to lower inflation, which it does by raising the cost of borrowing money to curb the demand for goods and services
What impact will QT have in terms of interest rates?
- Interest rates increase on savings and loans meaning in the short term there is less spending in the economy
- Decreasing the supply of money increases interest rates further and means lack of liquidity in the banking system
- Interest is the price of money - money is low in supply so it costs more
What are the risks of QT?
- Potential to destabilise financial markets - panic due to liquidity
- QT likely puts upward pressure on interest rates - significant uncertainty about the magnitude of these effects
- High interest rates - future equity earnings will be discounted using very high interest rates
- Likely to impact corporate finance decisions, meaning good projects may not get finance as they don’t show profitability using the high interest rates, even though they might show profitability under normal interest rates
How would a pension fund be affected by QE?
- Low yields on bonds reduce the scope for gaining from compound interest to provide generous future pensions
- Interest rates are lower than usual, overvaluing a pension’s likely future benefit payments (aka future liabilities)
- Stock price of companies with weak fundamentals could increase for a sustained period of time
- Pension fund may grow in size as more people/corporations have money to invest in their future
- Overall QE environment can destabilise pension plan finances
- With falling interest, there tends to be a shortfall in pension value, especially plans relying on bonds to fund regular payouts in the future. To cover this, funds have to invest even more.
How would a pension fund be affected by QT?
- A lot of pension funds rely on bonds heavily - panic as central bank sells - need a plan
- Deflation of prices will make it harder to see what stocks are over/under valued - the stock price of companies with great fundamentals could decrease for a sustained period of time
- Investors will deplete as people have less liquidity to invest. There is a lull in pension gains - fund value may stop growing
- Higher yields on bonds potentially increase the scope for gaining from compound interest to provide generous future pensions
What are the main requirements for an investment psychology framework to assess comparative advantage?
- Based on adequately powerful narrative and practical
- Needs not just to create a better understanding of the market, but also be able to create a better understanding of the behaviour of others
What are some key economic and monetary trends discussed in this course?
- Bretton Woods
- QE
- QT
- Media
- Fiscal Influences and Politics
Define technical analysis
Method for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past marker. data, primarily price and volume.
Contrasts the fundamental analysis, which attempts to forecast market prices using financial and economic data.
Technical analysis helps identify trends, tendencies, and trading opportunities using a variety of techniques, but it cannot predict the future.
Built on the view that all relevant information impacting he market price is reflected in its price history.
Psychologically astute investor using technical analysis
- Need deep narrative
- Investigate whether any of the technical analyses work in a particular market by looking at previous price action over various time periods and frequencies
- Examine why certain methods do not work
- Apply curiosity - being comfortable to combine techniques and examine for patterns
- Self-aware investor will recognise the purpose for investing
- Technical analysis only key for a short term investor or day trader - unpredictable over long periods
- Determine how ways to use technical analysis would work with or without modification
- Can then be used for market timing and trading, but only in the context of a deep overall narrative