PART 4 ECONOMICS Flashcards
Measured by gdp growth and track by the different phases of the business cycle
Economic growth
This is also influenced by economic growth
Corporate earnings growth
Quantity of money or money supply is the major determinant of price levels
Well controlled slowly increasing money supply will have the most positive impact on the health of the economy
Monetarist economic theory
Maintain economic stability by controlling money supply
Avoid overheating and depression
Central bank
Currency in the circulation and demand deposits
M1
Narrow money
M1 + savings accounts and time deposits
M2 broad money
M2 + assets and liabilities of financial institutions
M3 domestic liquidity
What business cycle:
Overheating of investment and production
Very low unemployment
Over expansion and overproduction funded by debts
Peaks
What business cycle phase:
Investment and production flatten
High unemployment
Minimal debts
Trough
Economy can sometimes operate below potential output
Takes place when demand for good is insufficient
Sometimes no strong automatic mechanism moves output and employment towards full employment levels
Keynesian theory
What theory is the example below
Government policies could be used to increase demand
- cut interest rates
- pump priming of the economy
- investment in infrastructure
Economy to avoid depression
Keynesian theory
Economic growth by lowering barriers for people to produce goods and services
Reduce taxes reduce regulation
Supply side economic theory
Analysis of past market data to estimate future price
Believes that prices are affected by numerous factors
Aside from fundamental factors prices are affected by psychology and sentiment of investors
Technical analysis
Rising volumes
More advancers than declineers
Shares are trending higher above the moving average
The reverse would indicate a bearish market
Characteristics of bullish market
Theories against technical analysis
Efficient market hypothesis
Market is information efficient
Market reflects all available information
No one can consistently achieve excess returns above market average
Prices follow a “random walk”
Study of past price action is useless
Efficient market hypothesis
New issues of bonds preferred stock or common stock are sold by government municipalities and companies to acquire new capital
Example
T bills
Municipal bond issues
IPOs
Primary market
Permit reading in outstanding issues
Provide liquidity for security issued in the primary market
Usually conducted in an exchange or a centralized market for secondary trading of stocks bond and other securities
Example
PSE
NYSE
HK stock exchange
Secondary market
Involves dealers and brokers who trade shares that are listed on an exchange away from the exchange
Also referred to as over the counter or otc trading
Third market
Direct trading of securities without broker intermediation
Fourth market
Action or order driven
Centralized: orders match by a facilitating agent
Execution at one price
Use for the opening or during resumption after trading is suspended
Call market
Dealer or quote driven
Decentralized: numerous dealers provide liquidity
Trades occur at any time market is open
Continuous market
Order driven auction markets
Tokyo stock exchange
Paris boures
Quote driven dealer markets
Nasdaq
London stock exchange
Combination ordered driven action market and quote driven dealer market
Frankfurt stock exchange
Buys and sell securities for account of others
Brokers
Buys and sells securities for his own account
Dealer
Also called specialist
Provides liquidity to the market by posting both bid and as prices for certain issues
Acts as both brokers and dealer
Market maker
Used to measure the average performance of a group of securities
Index
Judge the performance of investment managers
Benchmark
Perform research on effect of macroeconomic factors on security prices and to compare risk adjusted performance of alternative asset classes
Index
Perform technical and fundamental analysis of the entire class of assets
Index
Serve as the market portfolio for measuring beta and systematic risk
Index
Types of indices
Price (weighted averages)
Market value (weighted indices)
Equal weighted indices
Influence on small capitalization = large capitalizations
Appropriate benchmark for portfolio with equal dollar amount invested in each of several stocks
Employed by many individual investors
Unlike the others, cannot be used for buy and hold strategy
Equal weighted indices
Indices in the same country are
Highly correlated
Correlation of indices
Indices in the same country are highly correlated
There may be some difference in performance between large and small companies
Less correlation between indexes of different national indexes