OPERMAN Flashcards
an incorporated in labor demand planning system that matching staffing schedules with anticipated demand
An incorporated in labor demand planning system that matches staffing schedules with anticipated demand
Forecasts
The process of protecting the values of more or more variables into the future.
Forecasting
BASIC IN CONCEPTS OF FORECASTING
a.) Forecasts Planning Horizon
b.) Time Bucket
c.) Date patterns in time series
d.) Forecasts error and accuracy
Forecasts of future demand are needed at all levels of organizational decision-making the planning horizon in the length of which a forecast is based
Forecasts Planning Horizon
Is the unit of measure for the time period used in forecast
Time Bucket
is a set of observations measured at successive points in time or over successive period of time
Data Patterns in time series
All forecasts are subject to error, and understanding the nature and size of errors is important in making good decisions
Forecasts error and accuracy
is based on the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past
Statistical Forecasting
is an average of the most recent “K” observations in a time series.
Simple Moving Average
a forecasting technique that uses weighted average past time series values to forecast the value of the time series in the next period
Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)
a method for building statistical model that defines a relationship between a single dependent variable and one or more independent variables, all of which are numerical.
Regression Analysis
Excel provides a very simple tool to find the best fitting regression model for a time series.
Excel’s Add trendline option
A linear regression model with more than are independent variable is called
multiple linear
regression model.
relies upon opinions and expertise of people in developing forecasts
judgmental forecasting
is asking those who are close to the end consumer, such as salespeople, about the consumer’s purchasing plan.
Grassroots forecasting
consist forecasting by expert opinion by gathering judgments and opinions of key personnel based on their experience and knowledge of the situation
Delphi method
TEN PRACTICAL PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING
- Use quantitative rather than qualitative methods.
- Limit subjective adjustments of quantitative forecasts
- Adjust for events expected int he future
- Ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing.
- Use structured procedures to integrate judgmental and quantitative methods
- Combine forecasts, begin with equal weights
- If combining forecasts, begin with equal weights.
- Compare past performance of various forecasting methods.
- Seek feedback about forecasts.
- Use multiple measures of forecast accuracy.
is the capability of a manufacturing or service resource such as facility, process, workstation, or piece of equipment to accomplish its purpose over a specified time period.
Capacity
Capacity can be viewed in one or two ways:
- As the maximum rate of output per unit of time;
- As units of resource availability
are achieved when the average unit cost of a goods or service decreases as the capacity or volume of throughput increases
Economies of Sale
court systems in most major cities are strained past their capacity with case backlogs and long delays, often resulting in freeing criminals before they go to trial or incarcerating defendants who are subsequently acquitted for long periods of time.
Clogged courts
occur when the average unit cost
of the good or service begins to increase as the capacity
or volume of throughput increases.
Diseconomies of scale
is a way to achieve economies of scale,
without extensive investments in facilities and capacity,
by focusing on a narrow range of goods or services, target
market segments, and dedicated processes to maximize
efficiency and effectiveness.
Focused factory
are used in many ways in long-term
planning and short-term management activities.
Capacity measures
defines
as an amount of capacity reserved for unanticipated events
such as demand surges, materials shortages, and
equipment breakdowns.
safe capacity (capacity cushion)
is a specification of work to be performed for a customer or a client
work order
Four Basic Strategies for Expanding Capacity, over some
fixed time horizon:
- One large capacity increase
- Small capacity increases that match demand
- Small capacity increases that lead demand
- Small capacity increases that lag demand
If short-term demand is stable and sufficient capacity is
available, then managing operations ti ensure that demand
is satisfied is generally easy.
SHORT-TERM CAPACITY MANAGEMENT
