Operations Management Flashcards
What is MAPE?
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
What is MSE?
Mean Squared Error (Error Squared)
How do you calculate Forecast?
Trend Value multiplied by seasonal index’s
What is a seasonal index?
A measure of how a particular season through some cycle compares with the average season of that cycle.
What is a coefficient?
An integer that is written along with a variable, it is a constant in the formula.
What is the trend line formula?
Y = A + Bx
What is MAD?
Mean absolute deviation.
What is Bias in forecasting?
The average error.
What are the 4 time series components of forecasting?
Trend
Cyclical
Seasonal
Random
What is the exponential smoothing formula?
F+1 = F-1+a*(A-1-F-1)
How do you calculate MAPE?
Absolute error divided by absolute demand.
What is the formula for a regression line?
Y = A + Bx
Forecast is the same as?
Predicted Demand
What is MA3?
Monthly average of the last 3 months is the current forecast.
What is a in exponential smoothing?
Alpha - or the smoothing element.
What is naive forecasting?
A technique where last quarters actual are used as this periods forecast.
What is the Trendline equation?
Intercept + Slope multiplied by the period
How do you calculate MSE (mean squared error)?
Bias (error) squared
How do you calculate bias (error)?
Actual demand - forecast
Demand is the same as?
Actual
What is the DMAIC method?
Define
Measure
Analyze
Improve
Control
What are the 3 different views on quality?
User based
Manufacturing based
Product based
How do you calculate seasonal index?
By averaging the total demand of each of the days in the “season”.
How do you De-Seasonalize Data?
Divide demand by seasonal index.
How do you calculate trend?
Intercept + Slope multiplied by the period.
How do you calculate the forecast on the multiplicative model?
Trend times seasonal index.
How do you calculate ratio in the multiplicative model?
Demand divided by average demand.
What is a cost driver?
A factor that has a strong influence on a firms cost.
