Odomirok Ch 15: Schedule P Flashcards
List some uses of Schedule P (in addition to being used by outside parties to assess the reserve adequacy):
- Supports and provides disclosure for the SAO
- Shows how reserves have developed over time, and indicates where the development is coming from
- Provides the source of payment patterns to be used in the tax discounting calculations
- Shows the split between case reserves and IBNR
- Provides historical claim count data to help review trends in frequency & severity, and changes in claims handling & reserving
- Provides the data to calculate the RBC loss sensitive discount
List the parts of Schedule P:
- Part 1: loss & LAE experience as of 12/31 of the current year.
- Part 2: historical net loss & DCC estimates
- Part 3: historical net paid loss & DCC
- Part 4: historical net IBNR for loss & DCC (before tabular discount
- Part 5: historical claim counts (closed with payment, open and reported)
- Part 6: historical earned premium
- Part 7: loss and premium data on loss sensitive contracts
- Parts 2-6 are triangles
How are losses in Part 1 grouped:
- Occurrence policies: Accident Year
- Claims Made policies: Report Year
- Tail policies: Policy Year
- Fidelity & Surety policies: Discovery Year
2 components of LAE:
- Defense & Cost Containment (DCC)
2. Adjusting and Other (A&O)
List some examples of DCC:
- surveillance expenses
- fixed amounts for medical cost containment
- litigation management expenses (e.g. audit of bills)
- LAE for pools, if reported by AY
- fees & salaries for appraisers, private investigators, hearing representatives, reinspectors, fraud inspectors; if working in defense of a claims
- fees & salaries for rehabilitation nurses (if not included in losses)
- attorney fees incurred due to duty to defend
- cost of engaging experts (if not included in losses)
List some examples of A&O:
- fees of adjusters & settling agents
- LAE for pools, if reported by CY
- fees & salaries for appraisers, private investigators, hearing representatives, reinspectors, fraud inspectors; if working in the capacity of an adjuster
- attorney fees incurred in determination of coverage
How was LAE historically segmented:
- Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses (ALAE): expenses that can be allocated to a specific claim
- Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expenses (ULAE): expenses that can not be allocated to individual claims
How are S&S expenses recorded:
- Paid losses are recorded net of S&S received
- Unpaid losses can be net or gross of anticipated S&S
How are tabular & non tabular discounts treated in Part 1:
- Net of tabular discount
- Gross of non tabular discounts (until columns 32 & 33) and
Net (in columns 35 & 36)
List 2 things that the claim count data from Schedule P can be used to identify/ analyze:
- changes in losses
2. changes in claims settlement or reserving philosophy
What types of changes should actuaries look out for, when analyzing trends:
- Mix of business (type of exposure, geography)
- Policy limits
- Reinsurance attachment points & limits
- The way that the company counts its claims
How is discounting reflected in Parts 2-4:
Data is gross of all discounting.
How are reinsurance and S&S reflected in Parts 2-4:
Data is net of reinsurance and net of S&S
Issues with using the information in Parts 2 to 4 to develop losses:
- Various allocations in the creation of Schedule P are based on the interpretation of the person completing it
- Internal pooling or reinsurance arrangements that may have an impact on the data set may not be very obvious by looking exclusively at Schedule P
- Schedule P includes business from participation in voluntary and involuntary pools and/ or associations: many of these pools record IBNR as case reserves/ the level of participation in the pool may have changed over time
- Schedule P only contains 10 accident years of data, but long tail lines may experience development later than 10 years.
- Commutations will distort the reserves
- The data combines losses and DCC, potentially hiding trends in either component
What changes should be considered when using the information in Parts 2 to 4 to develop losses:
- Retentions
- Claims settlement & reserving
- Business mix
- Underlying exposures
How to derive triangle of case reserves
Case reserves = Part 2 - Part 3 - Part 4
Incurred loss - paid loss - IBNR
What does the prior years row show in Part 3?
The Prior Years Row of Part 3 shows the payments that have been made on the loss &
DCC reserves as of the earliest valuation date in the table, for all prior accident years.
Formula to populate the right most column of the Prior Years Row of Part 3:
It equals the Part 3 2nd right most column, plus the following from Part 1:
D&A loss - ceded loss + D&A DCC - ceded DCC = Col 4 - 5 + 6 - 7
What are the 3 sections of part 5?
- Cumulative number of claims closed with loss payment
- Number of claims outstanding
- Cumulative number of claims reported
What inconsistency should users be aware of when comparing Part 5 data of different companies:
Some companies record counts on a per claim basis, whereas others record them on a per claimant basis.
List some metrics that can be derived from the claim count data (in addition to other data from the Annual Statement):
- Claim closure rates
- CWP ratios
- Claim Frequency
- Avg Claim Severity
Formula for closure rate:
Closed claims / total reported claims
2 advantages of closing claims early:
- Minimize chance that the claim will develop adversely
2. Allow to insured to receive medical treatment/ repair property damage/ recover from loss
3 reasons that settlement rates may reduce:
- Reduction in staff
- Growth in the book without a corresponding increase in staff
- Surge in claims from a catastrophe
Expected impact to ultimate loss projection if a slow down in settlement rates is not reflected:
This will result in an understated projection.
CWP ratio equation:
CWP claims / total closed claims
Claims Frequency equation:
Claim Counts (from Part 5) divided by Earned Premiums (from Part 1)
*This will be distorted from rate changes. Exposure is a
preferable base, but this detail is unavailable in Schedule P.
Average Claim Severity formula:
Net paid loss & DCC (from Part 3) / direct and assumed claims closed with payment (from Part 5, Section 1)
- numerator contains pmts on both open and closed and the denominator is just closed claims
Average Case Outstanding Severity formula:
Net case outstanding loss and DCC (Part 2 - 3 - 4) / direct and assumed open counts (Part 5, Section 2)
Average Reported Claim Severity formula:
Net reported loss & DCC (from Part 2 - 4) / direct & assumed reported counts (Part 5, Section 3)
Factors that may cause loss trends:
Inflation
- Law changes
- One time catastrophic claims
- Changes in deductibles/ retentions
- Internal factors
List some metrics that can be calculated from the Part 5 data to perform reasonableness checks on the unpaid claim estimates (by comparing actual to expected):
- Average claim frequency = Ultimate claim count by AY / Corresponding EP
- Average ultimate severity = Ultimate loss and DCC by AY / Ultimate Claim Counts
- Average unpaid claim severity = Unpaid loss and DCC by AY / Unpaid Claims
List some reasons that premiums in Part 6 may change over time:
- Premium audits
- Retrospective rated policies
- Lags in reporting/ accounting for premiums
When would an insurer populate Part 7:
Only if it is using the loss sensitive adjustment to RBC.
List the 2 parts of Part 7:
- Part A: Primary Contracts (direct business)
- Part B: Reinsurance Contracts (assumed business)
List the five sections of each part of Part 7:
- Section 1: net loss & LAE unpaid and NWP on loss sensitive contracts, relative to all contracts, for each Schedule P line
- Section 2: incurred loss & DCC on loss sensitive contracts, in the same format as Part 2
- Section 3: loss & DCC IBNR on loss sensitive contracts, in the same format as Part 4
- Section 4: net earned premiums on loss sensitive contracts, in the same format as Part 6
- Section 5: triangle of net reserves for premium adjustments
& accrued retrospective premiums for each of the last ten years that the policies were issued
Briefly describe the Schedule P Interrogatories:
Series of seven questions that the insurer needs to answer, that add insight to the other information reported in Schedule P.
What topics does Interrogatory 1 cover:
Extended reporting endorsements (EREs) arising from death, disability or retirement (DDR). There are six parts:
- The first asks whether the insurer offered the endorsement for free (or at a reduced rate)
- The remaining parts are about how the company reports the
DDR
Main purpose of Interrogatory 1:
Ensure that the ERE coverage has been reserved for.
What topics does Interrogatory 2 cover:
Asks if the LAE is being Defined as DCC and A&O
What topics does Interrogatory 4 cover:
Asks for disclosure about whether the reserves are net of non-tabular discounts.
What topics does Interrogatory 6 cover:
Whether the insurer reports claim counts per claim or per claimant.
What topics does Interrogatory 7 cover:
Asks if there are any changes or anything special that the user needs to be aware of if she relies on the Schedule P data to assess the adequacy of recorded loss & LAE reserves
