nuclear weapons

Question 1

who argues that ‘more may be better’ and ‘more may be worse’ in regards to nuclear weapons

Answer 1

Waltz claims ‘more is better’

Sagan claims ‘More will be worse’

Question 2

What is the premise of Waltz’s arguement

Answer 2

new nuclear states will use their weapons to deter other countries from attacking them. The incentive for nuclear powers to begin an exchange makes it clear each side has little to gain. War becomes less likely as the costs of war rise in relation to possible gains

Question 3

evidence in favour of nuclear weapons

Answer 3

enjoyed more peace in the years after 1945 than had been known in modern history

Question 4

Waltz - “when nuclear weapons ___ to make the ___ of wars ___, who will dare to start them?”

Answer 4

threaten
costs
immense

Question 5

what is the premise of Sagan’s argument

Answer 5

he argues more nuclear weapons will be worse since some new nuclear states will engage in preventative wars, fail to build survivable forces, or have serious nuclear accidents

Sagans arguments are mostly based on the problems with maintain control of nuclear weapons in numerous countries. He worries that the military organizations might have “inflexible routines and interests (that could) lead to deterrence failures and deliberate or accidental war.”

Question 6

What is Sagans counter to the argument that there has been peace between superpowers since 1945?

Answer 6

the superpowers maintained a long peace throughout the cold war, despite political hostilities, numerous crises and a prolonged arms race

Question 7

what evidence does sagan use to support his argument

Answer 7

• Sagan mentions Ukraine giving up its stockpiles after disintegration from the soviet union despite a recommendation to keep them as a deterrent against future Russian military intervention
• Mentions that the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan inherited nuclear weapon from the SU without inheriting its stable civil-military relation, historical learning experience, or extensive command and control mechanism

Question 8

how does Sagan counter Waltz’s deterrence arguement? give evidence

Answer 8

• Sagan argues that Waltz is wrong in supposing that preventive strikes are unlikely, giving the example that Truman was advised to anticipate and prevent attack by being aggressive
• SU held discussions in 1969 debating whether to launch a preventive strike against Chinese nuclear forces.
• Sagan argues that deterrence only works when there are leaders who make the correct decisions and when there is a disciplined military that carries out those decisions. Failure of either of those could lead to a nuclear war

Question 9

what are the three ‘models’ as to why states may build nuclear weapons

Answer 9

security, domestic and norms model

Question 10

why does Sagan argue that focusing on security considerations, for why states build nuclear weapons, is dangerously inadequate

Answer 10

because nuclear weapons programs also serve other more less obvious objectives such as being political objects of considerable importance in domestic debates and internal bureaucratic struggles

Question 11

what notion is the security model based on

Answer 11

states build nuclear weapons to increase national security against foreign threats especially nuclear threats. Because of the enormous destructive power of nuclear weapons, any rival state that develops nuclear weapons gains access to a nuclear deterrent itself

Question 12

who claims that “proliferation begets proliferation” and what does it mean

Answer 12

• Shultz claims “proliferation begets proliferation” meaning that every time one state develops nuclear weapons to balance against its main rival, it also creates a nuclear threat to another state in the region, which then has to initiate its own nuclear weapons program to maintain its national security. One can envision the history of nuclear proliferation as a chain reaction

Question 13

Security model assumes that external security threats can be radically ____ or _____ if states were to give up their nuclear weapons. Give an example of this

Answer 13

changed or reevaluated

Example of South Africa giving up nuclear arsenal in 1991 due to the reduction of external threats, most notably, the risk of soviet invasion was eliminated, cease fire had been agreed in Angola and independence had been granted to Namibia

Question 14

what theory does the security model tie into and why

Answer 14

Realism

From a realists perspective, nuclear restraint is caused by the absence of the fundamental military threats that produce proliferation decisions

Question 15

what is the major problem with realist history and the security model

Answer 15

• Major problem is that realist history depends primarily on the motivation behind key decisions and decision-makers; secondly, a correlation in time between the emergence of a plausible security threat and a decision to develop nuclear weapons

Question 16

what is the ‘domestic politics model’

Answer 16

envisions nuclear weapon as political tools used to advance parochial domestic interests. Focuses domestic actors who encourage or discourage governments from pursuing the bomb

Question 17

how do bureaucratic actors make states build nuclear weapons

Answer 17

they create conditions that favour weapons acquisition by encouraging extreme perceptions of foreign threats, promoting supportive politicians and actively lobbying for increased defence spending.

Question 18

what theory ties in with the ‘domestic politics model’ and why?

Answer 18

Liberalism
they argue that • Nuclear weapons are not obvious or inevitable solutions to international security problems; instead, nuclear weapons are solutions looking for a problem to which to attach themselves so as to justify their existence

Question 19

how might realists counter the ‘domestic politics model’

Answer 19

• Realists recognize that domestic political actors have narrow interests but argue that such interests have only marginal influence on crucial national security issues.

Question 20

example of the ‘domestic politics model’

Answer 20

• Example of India developing weapons in the 1970’s event though there was no direct threat but was as a result of politician’s pressure and lobbying. The systematic program for either nuclear weapons suggests that the decision to develop nuclear weapons was taken quickly and thus may have focused more on immediate political concerns rather than on longer term security or energy interests. Support for Mrs Gandhi increased by one third in the month after the nuclear test

Question 21

what is the ‘norms model’

Answer 21

• State behaviour is determined by deeper norms and shared beliefs about what actions are legitimate and appropriate in international relations.

nuclear weapons decisions are made because weapons acquisition or restraint in weapons development provides an important normative symbol of a state modernity and identity

Question 22

what theory does the ‘norms model’ tie into and why?

Answer 22

Social constructivism

The roles routines and rituals individuals and organizations are shaped by social roles actors are asked to play and are embedded in a environment that promotes structures and behaviours as rational and legitimate. From this perspective military organizations and their weapons can therefore be seen as serving functions similar to those of flags, airlines and Olympic teams: they are part of what modern states believe they have to possess to be legitimate modern states

Question 23

two examples of ‘norms model’

Answer 23

• Despite initial security concerns after the Suez crisis, after the Algerian crisis in 1958 de Gaulle appeared less concerned about whether nuclear forces could provide adequate deterrence against the soviet Military threat. For de Gaulle, the atomic bomb was a dramatic symbol of French independence and was thus needed for France to continue to be seen, by itself and other, as a great power
• Ukraine’s decision to give up nuclear arsenal was a puzzling one from a realists perspective given the history of Russian expansionism and continuing tensions over Crimea and the treatment of Russian minorities. Was also puzzling from a domestic politics perspective because despite the tragic Chernobyl incident, public opinion in favour of nuclear weapons was significantly increasing. Did so as it was seen as way of separating itself from Moscow and being fully independent

Question 24

for policymakers, what does the existence of three different why states develop nuclear weapons suggest?

Answer 24

no single policy ameliorate all future proliferation problems