Monitoring, Prediction, Mitigation and Response to Tectonic hazards

Question 1

What does prediction allow for?

Answer 1

Warning to evacuate, preparation for hazard event, manage impact more effectively.
Help insurance companies assess risk and prioritise government spending.

Question 2

What are the conditions for a prediction?

Answer 2

Has to contain date and time, location and magnitude.

Question 3

How can global prediction be useful?

Answer 3

Regions can be identified and previous data can be used to pinpoint areas of risk and predict probability of hazard but not necessarily when.

Question 4

How can regional prediction be useful?

Answer 4

Attempts to predict in the hours before the event rely on diaries of survivors and monitoring systems.

Question 5

What was the effect of prediction in 1975 China earthquake?

Answer 5

90,000 could evacuate.

Question 6

What are the methods of earthquake monitoring?

Answer 6

Changes in water table
Radon gas counter
Tilt meter to detect changes in local magnetic field..
Creep meter to monitor small movements.

Question 7

Is it possible to predict eruptive phases?

Answer 7

Yes - most eruptions are preceded by environmental precursors but timing is difficult and highly eruptive explosions have less precursors.

Question 8

How does earthquake activity act as a warning of an eruption?

Answer 8

A swarm of higher-frequency earthquakes precede an explosion as local rocks fracture.

Question 9

How does ground deformation act as a warning of an eruption?

Answer 9

Slope bulges measured by tilt meters and EDMs to measure change in distortion.

Question 10

How does GPE act as a warning of an eruption?

Answer 10

Rely on satellites for visual changes and satellites have monitors inside the volcano which report pressure changes.

Question 11

How do thermal changes act as a warning of an eruption?

Answer 11

Occur as magma rises to the surface and increases surface temperature. Geysers, lake heating and wilting vegetation all indicate a thermal regime shift.

Question 12

How can we see that volcano explosion predictions are not entirely reliable?

Answer 12

In the Montserrat explosion, 5000 residents evacuated 3 times in 1996 due to false alarms.

Question 13

What is the main response to tsunamis?

Answer 13

Modifying vulnerability - warning can give time for an evacuation.

Question 14

How is forecasting done for tsunamis?

Answer 14

Tide gauges, detection buoys and pressure records all show increases in pressure and wave height.

Question 15

What is an example of a global scale warning system?

Answer 15

1924 Pacific Warning System for 24 Pacific Basin cities established, centred in Hawaii. They detect earthquakes and interpret tsunami risk and alert countries within 1 hour. Time taken for a wave to travel all the way allows ample time to warn shipping channels and evacuate coastal areas.

Question 16

What are the 3 main difficulties with predicting tsunamis?

Answer 16

Tsunamis may destroy power and communication lines.
Events can occur too quickly to issue a warning.
Warnings must be supported by land-based evacuation procedures and educational programmes.

Question 17

What are the 3 categories of response to tectonic hazards?

Answer 17

Modify event, modify vulnerability and modify loss.

Question 18

How can you modify the event?

Answer 18

Lava flows can be controlled - the 1973 Eldfell eruption had seawater surges used to cool and solidify them. Hazard-resistant buildings have a seismic-proof design so lives aren’t lost to building collapse. Buildings are sized appropriately to be strong and ductile, have bases equipped with seismic activity isolators, and have techno fixes, such as vibration counter control.

Question 19

How many of the world’s 100 largest cities have an earthquake once every 50 years?

Answer 19

70.

Question 20

How is the level of development a factor in modifying the event?

Answer 20

Only economically developed nations can afford to enforce building regulations. In developing countries there is little money or political will to enforce them. Recently, low-cost earthquake proof buildings have been designed using local materials, and not concrete or iron.

Question 21

How is land use planning and layout crucial in mitigating vulnerability to hazards?

Answer 21

Risk maps identify most hazardous areas.
Avoiding high-density squatter settlements and providing public open space creates safe areas away from fires and aftershock. Public buildings need to be spread out so the whole civil network doesn’t collapse.

Question 22

How has Hawaii used land planning to minimise risk?

Answer 22

They have avoided common paths for pyroclastic flow, using previous explosions as reference.

Question 23

How has Crescent City, California developed defence in tsunami-prone areas?

Answer 23

They have used the waterfront for public parks and sports fields, keeping businesses and large buildings back away to higher ground.

Question 24

How are community preparedness and education key strategies?

Answer 24

In Japan, tsunami drills and skills are commonplace. They are also educated on what precursors to look for and earthquake handbooks in every home.

Question 25

What are the 2 main ways to modify the loss?

Answer 25

Aid and insurance.

Question 26

how does insurance help to modify the loss?

Answer 26

HICS can afford it, and can particularly insure poorer areas since richer areas usually have private insurance.

Question 27

How is insurance actually not so effective?

Answer 27

They charge huge premiums due to potential huge payouts and demand the homeowner to refit the house out of their own pocket to be earthquake-proof.

Question 28

How does aid help modify the loss?

Answer 28

Humanitarian disasters result in lots of emergency aid from foreign governments, NGOs and private donations.

Question 29

What is the Hazard Disaster Management Cycle?

Answer 29

It identifies a number of phases in management fro identification to developing resilience. It shows where modification of loss, event and vulnerability fit.

Question 30

What are the parts of the Hazard Disaster Management Cycle?

Answer 30

Monitoring, Prediction, Warning
Hazard Event
Emergency Response
Rehabilitation
Short-term recovery
Long-term recovery and reconstruction
Resilience, Prevention, Mitigation
Disaster-free period.

Question 31

What is Park’s Disaster Response Curve?

Answer 31

It compares the 5 stage of response to a natural disaster the state of the area during that stage.

Question 32

What are the stages in Park’s Disaster Response Curve?

Answer 32

1 - Modify Cause and Event (Normal)
2 - Hazardous Event (Deterioration)
3 - Search, rescue and attend to wounded (Deep Deterioration)
4 - Relief and Rehabilitation (Deterioration)
5 - Nature of recovery in relation to reducing vulnerability and restoring normality (Improvement)

Question 33

What is Deterioration in terms of Park’s Disaster Response Curve?

Answer 33

The Reduction in Quality of Life, Economic activity, social stability and communications and services.