Monetary Policy Revision Flashcards
Explain what a time consistent policy means
When an action planned for time t+i is still optimal to implement at time t+i
Explain the components of the Barro-Gordon model. What are the equations?
- Loss function (min): L=(U-U[])^2 +a(π-π[])^2
- Phillips Curve (s.t.): U=U^n -b(π-πe)
- Policy instrument: Government/CB chooses current π
- Assumed political preferences: U*<Un
Explain the constraints with naive population compared to a rational one
Naive: πe = π*
Rational: πe = π
How would a CB address the time-inconsistency problem?
- Reputation: act tougher in early periods
- Delegation: to people well-known for their aversion towards inflation
Explain arguments/limitations to CB independence
Alesina shows that CBs that are independent have lower inflation rates.
However, some consider it undemocratic, it depends on the right central bankers. Selection bias!
What is a loss function? What is the intuition? What is the problem CBs face?
Describes a function that needs to be minimised.
The CB will achieve its goal when U = U* and π = π*
The problem is that by changing the inflation rate, they also affect the unemployment rate at a rate which may be different than the effect on the loss function (hence a and b)
What is the Phillips Curve? How is unemployment rate derived?
Describes the relationship between the level of unemployment and inflation.
A function of Un and the difference between π and πe
What is the Taylor Rule? (and equation)
A rule to which the CB sets its policy instrument as a response to the state of the economy.
i = c + a(π-π[star]) +b(U-U[star])
Explain academic examples of monetary policy rules in practice
Taylor
Nechio calculates a Taylor Rule for euro-area. The euro-area aggregate the ECBs interest rate following the rule. The wide gaps in the Taylor rule’s recommendations show that one size cannot fit all when the economic conditions of two regions are so markedly different.
Malmendier estimates a forward-looking Taylor rule that incorporates FOMC members’ experiences of inflation and an interest rate smoothing behaviour. FOMC member average of πe has explanatory power for the federal funds rate over the inflation forecast.
Masciandaro investigates how the presence of women correlates with monetary policy conduct using Taylor rules. CB boards with a higher proportion of women are more responsive to inflation, and have a more conservative approach to monetary policy when inflation is higher.
Central banks adjust interest rates more slowly than suggested by optimal Taylor rules. Give 5 reasons for interest rate smoothing
- Reputation concerns. The bank has to be seen to do what is necessary to keep inflation low
- Data uncertainty. GDP data comes in with lag
- Parameter uncertainty, the Taylor rule needs you to estimate the parameters
- Model uncertainty
- Financial instability
What is the audience of CB communication?
- Financial market participants
- Academics
- Politicians
- Price setters
- General public
Explain the key principles of CB communication
- Transparent
- Should target all audiences
- Delivered regularly
- Should not be confusing
- Equally accessible to all audiences
Outline Nakamura’s paper on the information effect
Unexpected changes in interest rates change in the 30 minute window surrounding Fed announcements. Information effects play an important role in the overall causal effect of monetary policy shocks (independent) on output (dependent)
Explain CB communication papers
Gurkaynak. Actions do NOT speak louder than words. The statements the fed releases account for 3/4 of movements in Treasury yields. Changes in the fed funds rate target is not enough to account for the movements.
Nakamura. Policy news shock has large and persistent effects on real rates. Small effects on expected inflation. Firms and individuals change expectations based on fed announcements, as does the fed.
Coenen. Communication has increased since the crisis. This lowers market uncertainty, and increases fed credibility. It helps make them transparent.
Cieslak. Policymaker perception of uncertainty creates discrepancies between estimated policy rules and actual decision making. Rising inflation leads to a hawkish stance.
Bliner. Why do they want to communicate? (reasons). If CBs communnicate faster, this leads to a faster adbjustment in demand and therefore inflation. Needs good communication. Three E’s: Explanation, Engagement, Education.
Masciandaro. Evolution of CB communication. Especially via social media. Outlines the increased importance, even for credibility and independence. Before, they would only communicate with financial market participants.
Explain the role of Fed information
Should only convey information about its own future policy. However it wants to explain about current and future exogenous shocks