Module II - The New Politics of the Welfare State in the Post-Expansionary Era

Question 1

What is Pierson’s puzzle? What is his explanation?

Answer 1

Puzzle: Despite mounting challenges since the 1970s (oil crisis with high unempl., political shift to right, globalization pressure), there was only little welfare state retrenchment.

Explanation: GEA’s ’Power Resources’ Theory through classes not is sufficient, instead it is the unpopularity of retrenchment (negativity bias) and well-entrenched interest groups

→ blame avoidance necessary as costs of retrenchment are concentrated (and often immediate) while the benefits are not

Question 2

What path dependency / Policy Feedback Effects keep Welfare States?

Answer 2

1. Welfare state structures can affect the size and orientation of societal groups
2. WS structures provide basis for social learning that affect future prospects of reform
3. WS structures can create lock-in effects for policies (e.g.: pay-as-you-go pension systems)

Question 3

What can open policy windows for WS retrenchment?

Answer 3

1. Retrenchment will be facilitated when there is significant electoral slack (= the gov has enough support due to other reasons)
2. Moments of budgetary crisis may open opportunities for reform
3. Success will depend on visibility of reform (can the reform be made ‚invisible‘?)

Question 4

What strategies of blame avoidance can gov’s use? (Pierson)

Answer 4

1. Obfuscation (lowering the visibility of reforms)
2. Division (bring population against one another, e.g. blame immigrants)
3. Compensation (side payments to losers of the reform)

Question 5

What 4 possible hypothesizes give Giger & Nelson (2011) for Electoral Consequences of Welfare Retrenchment?

Answer 5

1. Parties will neither lose nor gain votes for retrenching social policy (successful blame avoidance)
2. Left and religious parties will lose, liberal and conservative will gain votes (voters with specific preferences)
3. Only market-liberal parties can prevent losses, other parties will lose votes (liberal pro-retrench voter base)
4. Left and religious parties will win, liberal and conservative parties will lose votes (Nixon goes to China)

Question 6

What are Giger & Nelson (2011) empirical findings for of Welfare Retrenchment?

Answer 6

1. No party family systematically loses support for retrenching social policy (Maybe: Blame avoidance strategies successful?)
2. Religious and liberal parties systematically win votes for retrenchment (popular policy for some voters?)

Question 7

How does Arndt (2013) explain change of SocDem parties?

Answer 7

External pressure:
1. Economic change (Oil crises, inflation, structural unemployment, more social expense)
2. Socio-cultural change (Declining working class and unionization)
3. Demographic change (Rising life expectancy increases fiscal burden on the state)
→ trying to get median voter on their side by adapting

Question 8

What is the Third Way Social Democracy? (Four changes)

Answer 8

1. “Welfare without work” → “Welfare to work” (de-commodification → re-com.)
2. Rights → No rights without responsibilities
3. Egalitarianism → Prioritarian egalitarianism
4. Solidarity → Productivist solidarity
   E.g. Tighten eligibility criteria, Shorten benefit duration, reduce replacement rates

Question 9

Possible paths of Electoral Consequences of Re-Commodifying Reform by SocDem.s (Arndt)

Answer 9

1. Majoritarian (FPTP) → dealignment → low turnout (ex: UK)

2./3. Proportional (PR) → realignment → leftist parties (ex: GER)/new right parties (ex: DEN)

But: Challenger Credibility with current political positions regarding social policy AND “clean hands” about policy record needed

Question 10

What is the argument of Abou-Chadi & Immergut (2019)?

Answer 10

1. Shifting support coalitions for WS policies retrenchment retrenchment or recalibration (shift towards social investments)
2. Extent of welfare retrenchment depends on competition in the next election

→ With high competition, parties should focus on vote maximizing: makes retrenchment more likely for left parties (attract middle class with social investments) and less likely for right parties (attract middle class)

BUT: (much) less likely if there is a far-right competitor

Question 11

What is the difference between social protection and social investment?

Answer 11

Social investments aim at fostering labour market participation rather than compensating for income loss and they promote social inclusion through work and human capital investment, rather than transfers
→ Main instruments are childcare services, education and active labour market policies