Module 43: Financial Risk Management and Capital Budgeting Flashcards
What type of relationship does risk and return have?
Inverse relationship
Avoidable costs
Costs that will not continue to be incurred if a particular course of action is taken
Cash flow hedge
A hedge of the variability in the cash flows of a recognized asset or liability or of a forecasted transaction that is attributable to a particular risk
Committed costs
Costs related to the company’s basic commitment to open its doors (e.g., depreciation, property taxes, management salaries, etc.)
Credit (default) risk
The risk that a firm will default on payment of interest or principal of a debt
Currency swaps
Forward-based contracts in which two parties agree to exchange an obligation to pay cash flows in one currency for an obligation to pay in another currency
Differential (incremental) cost
The difference in cost between two alternative courses of action
Discretionary costs
Fixed costs whose level is set by current management decisions (e.g. advertising, research and development)
Fair value hedge
A hedge of the changes in fair value of a recognized asset or liability, or of an unrecognized firm commitment
Forwards
Negotiated contracts to purchase and sell a specific quantity of a financial instrument, foreign currency, or commodity at a price specified at the origination of the contract, with delivery and payment at a specified future date
Futures
Forward-based standardized contracts to take delivery of a specified financial instrument, foreign currency, or commodity at a specified future date or during a specified period generally at the then market price
Interest rate risk
The risk that the value of a debt instrument will decline due to an increase in prevailing interest rates
Interest rate swaps
Forward-based contracts in which two parties agree to swap streams of payments over a specified period of time. These contracts are often used to trade variable-rate instruments for fixed-rate instruments
Internal rate of return method
Uses the rate of return that equates investment with future cash flows to evaluate investment alternatives
Market risk
The risk that the value of a debt instrument will decline due to a decline in the aggregate value of all assets in the economy
Net present value method
Uses the present value of future cash flows to evaluate investment alternatives
Opportunity cost
Maximum income or savings (benefit) foregone by rejecting an alternative
Options
An instrument that allows, but does not require, the holder to buy (call) or sell (put) a specific or standard commodity or financial instrument, at a specified price during a specified period of time or at a specified date
Outlay cost
Case disbursement associated with a specific project
Payback method
Evaluates investment alternatives based on the length of time until the investment is recaptured
Relevant costs
Future costs that will change as a result of a specific decision
Sensitivity analysis
Exploring the importance of various assumptions to forecasted results
Sunk (unavoidable) costs
Committed costs that are not avoidable and are therefore irrelevant to future decisions
Swaption
Option of a swap that provides the holder with the right to enter into a swap at a specified future date with specified terms
Systematic risk
The risk related to market factors which cannot be diversified away
Unsystematic risk
Risk that exists for one particular investment or a group of like investments. This risk can be diversified away
Equity risk premium
Real return minus risk-free real return
Risk averse
Compensated for taking risk
Risk-neutral
Investors that prefer investments with higher returns whether or not they have risk; disregard risk
Risk-seeking investors
Investors that prefer to take risks and would invest in a higher-risk investment despite the fact that a lower-risk investment might have the same return
Return on a single asset
Investment return is total gain or loss on an investment for a period of time
Change in asset’s value (either gain or loss) plus any cash distributions (e.g. cash flow, interest, dividends)
Investment return equation
Rt+1 = Pt+1 - Pt + CFt+1 / Pt
Rt+1 = investment return from time t tp t+1 Pt+1 = asset's price (market value) at t+1 Pt = asset's price (market value) at t CFt+1 = cash flow received from the asset from t to t+1
This formula measures return on an ex post basis (after the fact) - does not consider risk
How should investors evaluate investments?
Ex ante basis (before the fact)
Use expected returns and estimates of risk
Arithmetic average return
Computer by simply adding the historical returns for a number of periods and dividing by number of periods
Used for short holding periods
Geometric average return
Depicts compound annual return earned by an investor who bought the asset and held it for the number of historical periods examined. If returns vary through time, geometric return will always fall below the arithmetic average.
Used for longer holding periods
Normal distribution
Pattern of historical returns of large numbers (bell curve shaped)
Normal distribution
About 95% of returns will fall within the range created by expected return +/- two standard deviations
Subjective estimates of risk
When management does not have significant historical data on returns to calculate the mean and variance
Expected returns of a portfolio
E(Rp) = w1E(R1) + w2E(R2) + w3E(R3) …
E(Rp) = expected return on the portfolio w1,2,3 = weight of each of the assets E(R1,2,3) = expected return of each of the assets
What does the variance of portfolio returns depends on (3 factors)
- Percentage of the portfolio invested in each asset (the weight)
- Variance of returns of each individual asset
- Covariance among the returns of assets in the portfolio
Covariance
Captures the degree to which the asset returns move together over time
If the individual assets move together, little benefit to holding portfolio
What do portfolios allow investors to do?
Diversify away unsystematic risk
What are examples of systematic risk
Fluctuations in GDP, inflation, interest rates
Cannot be diversified away
What does the variance of an individual investment capture?
Total risk of the investment, both systematic and unsystematic)
Standardized measure to estimate an investment’s systematic risk
Beta
Beta = Bi = covariance of investment’s returns with returns of overall portfolio / portfolio’s variance
Measures how the value of the investment moves with changes in the value of the total portfolio
Risk preference function
Describes the investor’s trade-off between risk and return
Falling on the line is an efficient portfolio
What does interest represent?
Cost of borrowing funds
What are the two parts of credit/default risk?
- Individual firm’s creditworthiness (or risk of default)
2. Sector risk - risk related to economic conditions in firm’s economic sector
Interest rate risk
Risk that the value of the loan or bond will decline due to an increase in interest rates
Systematic risk
Market risk
Risk that the value of the loan or bond will decline due to a decline in the aggregate value of all the assets in the economy
Systematic risk
What type of risk is credit risk?
Unsystematic risk; unique to particular loan or investment
Stated interest rate
Contractual rate charged by the lender
Effective annual rate
True annual return to the lender
Why do the effective annual rate and stated interest rate differ?
Interest is compounded more often than annually
What is the formula for calculating the effective annual rate from the stated rate?
EAR = (1 + r/m)^4 -1
r = stated interest rate m = compounding frequency
Term structure of interest rates
Describes the relationship between long-and short-term rates
Important in determining whether to use long-term fixed or variable rate financing
How are term structure of interest rates depicted?
A yield curve
Normal yield curve
Upward sloping curve in which short-term rates are less than intermediate-term rates which are less than long-term rates
Inverted (abnormal) yield curve
A downward-sloping curve in which short-term rates are greater than intermediate-term rates which are greater than long-term rates
Flat yield curve
Curve in which short-term, intermediate-term and long-term rates all about the same
Humped yield curve
A curve in which intermediate-term rates are higher than both short-term and long-term rates
Why are long-term rates usually higher?
They involve more interest rate risk so require higher maturity risk premiums for long-term lending
Liquidity preference (premium) theory
Long-term rates should be higher than short-term rates, because investors have to be offered a premium to entice them to hold less liquid and more price-sensitive securities
If interest rates increase and an investor holds a fixed-rate long-term security, the value of the security will decline
Market segmentation theory
This theory states that treasury securities are divided into market segments by the various financial institutions investing in the market.
What type of securities do commercial banks prefer?
Short-term securities to match their short-term lending strategies
What types of securities do savings and loans prefer?
Intermediate-term securities
What types of securities do insurance companies prefer?
Long-term securities because of the nature of their commitments to policy holders
Expectations theory
Explains yields on LT securities as a function of ST rates
States that LT rates reflect average of ST expected rates over the time period that the LT security will be outstanding
When LT rates are lower than ST rates…
Market is expecting ST rates to fall
How are interest rates tied to inflation rates?
Directly
If LT rates are lower than ST rates…
Market is indicating a belief that inflation will decline
Derivative
Financial instrument or contract whose value is derived from some other financial measure (underlyings, such as commodity prices, stock prices, interest rates, etc.) and includes payment provisions
Examples of derivatives
- Options
- Forwards
- Futures
- Currency swaps
- Interest rate swaps
- Swaption
Options
Allow, but do not require, the holder to buy (call) or sell (put) a specific or standard commodity of financial instrument, at a specified price during a specified period of time (American option) or a specified date (European option)
Forwards
Negotiated contracts to purchase and sell a specified quantity of a financial instrument, foreign currency, or commodity at a price specified at origination of the contract, with delivery and payment at a specified future date
Futures
Forward-based standardized contracts to take delivery of a specified financial instrument, foreign currency, or commodity at a specified future date or during a specified period generally at the then market price
Currency swaps
Forward-based contracts in which two parties agree to exchange an obligation to pay cash flows in one currency for an obligation to pay in another currency
Interest rate swaps
Forward-based contracts in which two parties agree to swap streams of payments over a specified period of time
Example of interest rate swap
One party agrees to make payments based on a fixed rate of interest and other party agrees to make payments based on a variable rate of interest
Swaption
Option of swap that provides the holder with the right to enter into a swap at a specified future date with specified terms, or to extend or terminate the life of an existing swap. Characteristics of an option and an interest rate swap
Examples of financial intermediaries
- Commercial banks
- Insurance companies
- Pension funds
- Savings and loan associations
- Mutual funds
- Finance companies
- Investment bankers
- Money market funds
- Credit unions