Module 11: The Future Landscape of Urban Mobility Flashcards
The World is Changing; so is Transportation.
-Mobile information & communication technologies
-Climate crisis
-Population
The Growing & Ageing Population.
-This factor will have significant influence on the demand for travel over the coming decade whatever actions are taken within the transport sector:
-urbanization
-population growth & immigration
Everything in Transportation is Changing.
-Ease with non-car modes
-New modes: e-bikes; e-scooters
-Future modes - autonomous & connected vehicles; flying taxis
-The way we access transportation - as a service, not via ownership
-The use of big data to plan & operate transportation systems
-Interaction at the curb
-Delivery modes
Critical Dimensions of Change in Transportation.
-The strong interrelationship & the interaction between transportation & the rest of the society especially in a rapidly changing world is significant to a transportation planner
-Four critical dimensions of change in transportation system can be identified:
1. Change in demand
2. Change in technology
3. Change in environmental value
4. Change in operational policy
Four Trend Categories.
-Climate
-Society
-Technology
-Resources
-Understand future trends & their impact on transportation
-Consider implications of individual trends & trend convergence on design across sectors
-Ensure that designs are future ready
Society.
-New mobility
-Peak spreading
-Working remote has become a norm
Smart Mobility Technologies.
-Smart Mobility refers to the new approaches & ways of transportation driven by new technologies that enable ride-sharing platforms, electric vehicle operation, & driverless vehicles
What is Smart Mobility?
-Movement of people & goods through application of technology, data, & data analytics that balances safety, efficiency, comfort, sustainability, ability, inclusion, equity, & cost
Smart Mobility - More Freedom.
-Trip Planning: able to plan your trip & access real time information, at one place for all modes of transportation; comfort with shared mobility
-Payment: one payment for all trips
-Integration with Calendar: optimize based on your priorities
MaaS Examples - Whim.
-Helsinki residents use Whim to plan & pay for all modes of public & private transportation
-Anyone with the app can enter a destination, select their preferred mode covering the door to door journey of getting there
-Users can either pre-pay for the service as part of a monthly mobility subscription or pas as they go using a payment account
Shared Mobility.
-Short term access to mobility on as ‘as needed’ basis
-Shared mobility is the term used to define the vehicles without ownership to whom the public can use for short term drives on hourly or day basis rental. Shared Mobility is also becoming smart in various aspects.
Vision for Shared Mobility.
-A spectrum of travel modes available for any trip type. The sum of options is greater than the whole.
-Public transit
-Taxis & limos
-Ridesharing
-Carsharing
-etc.
Mobility as a Service (MaaS).
-Mobility as a service means these tech enabled vehicles to serve customers as per their needs
-Instead of owning a car, there will be much more practical, cheaper, & environmentally friendly alternatives for getting from A to B
-Mobility becomes a service that is rented & paid for, if desired also as a flat rate
The Shared Economy.
-Car sharing: short term access to a car
-Bike sharing: short term access to a bike
-Ride sharing: connecting passengers with drivers, either to share a mutually intended journey, or for a passenger to be driven to their chosen destination
-Car and bike share schemes will contribute to modest reductions in car mileage by offering an alternative to car ownership either entirely or for second cars, or by making multi-modal trips more attractive
-There are aspects of ride sharing which will act to reduce demand (through wasted single occupancy trips) but also aspects that will increase demand & make shared cars more cost efficient than public transport
When will we see Common Adoption of MaaS?
-Mobility as a service will undoubtedly mature in the coming decade
-However, it will need to be more attractive to users than the existing system so is most likely to emerge in large cities where the push & pull factors make the offering attractive as a replacement to owning a car
Technology.
-CAVs (Connected & automated vehicles)
-Big data
-Electrification & automation
-Innovative technologies
Key Influences on Transportation.
-Real time access to information and the market potential of new technologies are rapidly changing how people make travel decisions, how they travel, & what they expect of the transportation system
-Autonomous & connected vehicles are primed to have major implications on mobility. Some experts predict that robo-taxis will account for 27% of passenger travel by 2030; other studies predict a slower fleet turnover & higher share of private, rather than shared, autonomous vehicles
-Renewable energy sources & a decentralization of electricity network management are growing. The steep rise of renewables in electricity production is revealing promising options & making a post-fossil fuel energy supply viable. New vehicle technologies like fuel cells & battery powered drives are sufficiently developed in principle
Autonomous Vehicle & Connected Vehicle.
-Autonomous vehicle (AV) uses technology that exists completely within the car; this technology can read standard traffic signs, identify cyclists’ hand signals, & senses pedestrians
-Connected vehicle (CV) relies on broadcasted communications from other vehicles or the infrastructure
Autonomous Vehicle & Connected Vehicle.
-While most, if not all, AVs may be connected, not all CVs are autonomous
-They are now often referred as CAVs or Connected Autonomous Vehicles capable of large scale fully automated deployment
The Spectrum of Automated Driving.
-Level 0: Human driver monitors environment & controls vehicles
-Level 1: Computer controls speed or steering only
-Level 2: Integrated computer control of speed & steering
-Level 3: Computer monitors environment & controls speed & steering with full human backup
-Level 4: Computer monitors environment & controls speed & steering with some human backup
-Level 5: Computer monitors environment & controls speed & steering with no human backup
AV - Potential Benefits.
-AVs facilitate the creation of a hassle-free driving environment, minimize the safety risk for all road users, bring about more accessible mobility for road users & support the development of environmentally friendly transportation solutions
-Improved public safety
-Improved mobility for the elderly, disabled & youth
-Improved traffic circulation
-Reduced emissions
-Reduced need for parking
-Improved personal mobility options & reduced personal mobility
-Increased road capacity & throughput
CAV.
-It’s not enough for a vehicle to be able to drive itself
-The autonomous technology needs to be able to interact with the infrastructure
-A CAV can “see” the road, by exchanging messages with infrastructure around the vehicle in real time. This infrastructure includes traffic lights, traffic volume, & the behaviour of other vehicles
-All this information helps CAV to tailor its own operations to the activities happening around it so that it’s working with traffic, not against it.
CV.
-CVs sending & receiving signals from other vehicles, street lights, road sensors, & other devices will create a safer & better driving experience
-Vehicle to everything (V2X) connectivity will enable the fuel usage per trip to be minimized due to steady speeds, reduced idling time, correct navigation & efficient routes
-A further step forward would be a centralized intelligent computer that tracks real-time location, speed, & destination information with control of any vehicle in its radar; the tracking can be fed back into the algorithm to predict & respond to traffic density & flow
CAV - Safety Considerations.
-It is important to identify & implement the way to distinguish between living & non-living objects accurately under extreme lighting conditions
-Decisions with ethical concerns, where complex judgement is needed, can be difficult to encode in the AI.
-Another scenario may be an underwhelming infrastructure, one with lack of adequate connectivity & system redundancy, making the autonomous ecosystem less reliable
-As technologies mature & become more cost effective, they will ultimately resolve technical issues related to reliability & safety. thereby offering the possibility to avoid road bottlenecks & collisions
Cav - Implications.
-Infrastructure Readiness - how does this change parking? Are dedicated lanes required for safety in mixed deployment?
-Operational Readiness - what new opportunities exist for managing congestion?
-Institutional Readiness - what new standards are needed for geometric design? How will data be managed?
-Legal Implications - What will happen when a self-driving car kills a bystander? Who is liable?
CAV - The Future.
-The technology is way beyond the point of just being an idea,
-Connected technologies are being deployed all around the world. “There will be 470 million connected vehicles on highways around the world by 2025.”
-Canada has been slow to move into V2X technology.
-The three separate technologies of shared mobility, automation & electrification are mutually reinforcing. The successful convergences of these 3 innovations is vital to the future of AVs & deploying AVs thoughtfully is vital to the future of cities
When will we see Common Adoption of AV?
-A transition to a fully automated driving system could be transformational as it fundamentally changes the role of the vehicle in the transport system
-However, in the near future looking 15 years ahead, full automation will likely remain confined to niches & it will be a period of learning rather than transformation
Other Transportation Technology Trends.
-Canada will require all new cars to be zero emission vehicles by 2035.
EV - Issues to Resolve.
-Battery life
-Range
-Charging stations on the road
-Plug-in charging at home
-Government policy
-Smart grid
EV - Government Policies.
-Federal government mandating sales by 2035
-Ontario:
-installing EV chargers at public spaces
-targeting at least 400,000 hybrid vehicles & EV by 2030
-Feds & Ontario investing:
-Ford plant in Oakville to make EVs
-$4B EV battery plant in Windsor
Truck Platooning.
-Truck platooning allows trucks to follow each other closely, thereby reducing air drag & improving fuel economy. It also has the potential to increase vehicle capacity.
-AV (cruise control) & CAV vehicle to vehicle technologies
-MTO has carried out traffic simulation modelling on this
Urban Air Mobility (UAM).
-Developed in response to traffic congestion
-UAM is the use of small highly automated aircraft to carry passengers or cargo at lower altitudes in urban & suburban areas
-It usually refers to existing & emerging technologies such as traditional helicopters, vertical takeoff & landing aircraft & unmanned aerial vehicles
Climate.
-Warmer: Heatwaves will increase. By 2050, a 1 in 20 year hot day will become 4x more likely.
-Wetter: Extreme precipitation events are expected to double by 2050
-Stormier: The strongest winter storms are projected to become 8-15% more frequent
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
-Transportation = 22%
Climate Change Impacts - I.
-The cost of climate change is increasing markedly. Globally, it is estimated that 50 billion tons of CO2 are expected to be emitted annually by 2050, for a total cost of US $21 trillion
-Canada may face an even more costly challenge than other nations. Canada is warming at twice the average global rate, & the Canadian Arctic is warming at 3 times the global rate
-Infrastructure is one of the sectors most at risk from the impacts of a changing climate
Climate Change Impacts - II.
-In the coming decades, emissions of greenhouse gases will result in further changes to global & regional climates. These changes have implications for the transportation sector, & the Canadian economy & society more broadly
-Climate risks include both changing climate conditions & extreme weather conditions
-Extreme events will increase in frequency and/or intensity as the climate continues to warm, & these events represent significant risks to transportation infrastructure & operations
Sensitive of Transportation to Climate.
-Transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to damage & disruptions from a changing climate & extreme weather
-Most vulnerable are in permafrost regions of northern Canada
-However, a changing climate & extreme weather will affect all modes of transportation in every Canadian region
How Climate can Affect Road Transportation.
- Flooding, damage, & wash outs of roads & bridges
- Bridge scour
- Reduced vehicle traction, stability, visibility issues
- Damage & deterioration of roads
- Damage to road structures, obstructions, bridge closures
- Thermal expansion of bridge joints, potentially resulting in “blow ups”
- Reduced integrity of winter roads
Impacts of Extreme Weather on Roads.
-Precipitation: safety, operations, maintenance
-Heat: safety, operations, maintenance
-Freeze-Thaw Cycles
How Climate can Affect Urban Transportation.
- Flooding, damage, & wash outs of surface infrastructure
- Flooding of underground transit systems
- Buckling of rail transit lines
- Damage to traffic signals, signage, fallen power lines, trees obstructing routes
- Loss of power
- Reduced traction/stability of vehicle, visibility issues
- Damage to and deterioration of roads and bridges
Response to Climate Change.
-There are two categories of response to climate change:
-Mitigation - human interventions to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions
-Adaptation - any activity that reduces the negative impacts of
climate change and/or takes advantages of new opportunities
-Adaptation includes actions taken before impacts are observed, & after impacts have been felt
-Adaptation can be planned, or spontaneous
Adaptive Management.
-Designing & constructing infrastructure to address climate change impacts is not simple - it requires decision making amid intense uncertainty
-Reactive approaches to managing climate risks remain common in Canada’s transportation sector
-To address the increased risk & uncertainty that arrives alongside climate change, our designs, organizations, & processes need to be agile & adaptive
-Transportation decision-makers are increasingly adopting a risk management approach to reduce climate risks to their infrastructure & operations
Adaptation Approaches.
-Transportation owners & operators are using a variety of different approaches to reduce climate risks. These include engineering & technological solutions, as well as policy, planning, management, & maintenance approaches:
-integrating climate considerations into organizational planning,
policies, & designs
-undertaking risk & vulnerability assessments
-implementing structural & physical adaptations
-changing operations & maintenances practices
Adaptation Approaches - Examples.
-Design & Maintenance:
-changing pavement mixes for roads
-increasing the cross fall for roads
-expanding drainage capacity of infrastructure
-increasing maintenance, including clearing debris from culverts to
reduce flooding risks, etc
Resources.
-Renewable energy
-Energy storage
-Rise in construction activity
Transportation & Mobility Change.
- Autonomous or Automated Driving
- Connected Vehicles Transport Systems & Networks
- Electrical Vehicles
- Shared Use
- Business Models
Urban Mobility of the Future.
-More diverse
-More intelligent
-More shared
-Cleaner
The Future of Transportation.
Aims to:
-reduce greenhouse gas emissions
-reduce collisions
-reduce congestion
-improve travel speed
-provide access for the disadvantaged
Urban Mobility Disruptions.
Potential Benefits:
-Electric vehicles powered by renewable energy could cut costs &
fossil fuel emissions, & eliminate the significant impacts of
pollution on public health & the environment
-Shared vehicles could reduce transport costs & traffic
-Autonomous vehicles could eliminate traffic crashes, reduce
congestion, & increase mobility for everyone
-Increasing urban density could bring significant economic benefits
through growth & efficiency gains when people & businesses are
closer together
