Modern Portfolio Theory Flashcards
Sharpe Ratio Limitations
- assumes returns follow a normal distribution, not true in reality (lots of price shocks)
- all volatility is penalised, even upside
- can be manipulated to boost the apparent risk-adjusted returns
Markovitz’s Diversification
- Combining securities with less-than-perfect positive correlation, p<1
- Reduce the risk of the portfolio without sacrificing the portfolio’s expected return
- Relation between correlation and risk level
Expected Return of a Portfolio
E(rp) = w1E(r1) + w2E(r2)
Variance of a portfolio’s return
σ2p = w12σ12 + w22σ22 + w32σ32 + 2w1w2σ12 + 2w1w3σ13 + 2w2w3σ23
Assumptions of MPT
- All investors have the same one-period time horizon
- All investors are risk-averse, and their goal is to maximise their expected utility
- All investors can borrow or lend at the risk free rate
- All investors choose portfolio following mean-variance model
- no tx costs
- no income taxes
Expected utility
Function of expected returns and variance
* E[u(R)] = f(E(R), σ2(R))
Global Minimum Variance Portfolio
Furthest left point on efficient frontier
Sharpe Ratio
E(rp) - rf / σp
CAPM
E(R) = rf + 𝛽i(E(Rm - rf)
CAPM Assumptions
- All investors have the same one-period time horizon
- All investors are risk-averse, and their goal is to maximise their expected utility
- All investors can borrow or lend at the risk free rate
- All investors choose portfolio following mean-variance model
- no tx costs
- no income taxes
- All investors have identical expectations about E(R), std dev and p for all securities
- All investors are price-takers
Beta
𝛽i = Covi,M / σ2M
Portfolio Beta
𝛽p = w1𝛽1 + w2𝛽2 + … + wn𝛽n
Security Market Line
graph of the CAPM
* Represents the relationship between an asset’s risk, measured by beta, and its expected return
Jensen’s Alpha
measures the risk-adjusted excess return earned by a security or portfolio over a given period
* α = (Ri - rf) - 𝛽i(RM - rf)
Fama-French Three-Factor Model
small stocks (and value stocks) outperform big stocks (and growth stocks)
* ri = rf + (E(rm) - rf)𝛽m + (SMB)𝛽smb + (HML)𝛽hml + ei
Criticisms of Fama-French Three-Factor Model
- some argue that the size and value factors are a result of data mining
- ignores momentum factor
Carhart Four-Factor Model
Considered momentum factor
* ri - rf = αi + (E(rm) - rf)𝛽m + (SMB)𝛽smb + (HML)𝛽hml + (UMD)𝛽umd + ei
Fama-French Five-Factor Model
Added profitability and investment factors on the previous model (Robust minus Weak, Conservative minus Aggressive)
* ri - rf = αi + (E(rm) - rf)𝛽m + (SMB)𝛽smb + (HML)𝛽hml + (RMW)𝛽rmw + (CMA)𝛽cma + ei
Treynor Ratio
reward-to-volatility ratio
* TRp = E(rp) - rf / 𝛽p
market portfolio
fully diversified portfolio of all risky assets
Capital Market Line
Special case of CAL.
* represents all possible combinations of risk-free assets and the market portfolio
Prospect Theory
individuals are more sensitive to potential losses than to equivalent potential gains
SMB
Small minus Big
* represents the difference in returns due to the small firm effect, small stocks have greater returns that big stocks
HML
High minus Low
* High B/M vs Low B/M, represents the difference in returns between value (High B/E) and growth (Low B/E) stocks
UMD
Up minus Down
* represents momentum, strong performance tends to continue, weak performance tends to continue
RMW
Robust minus Weak
* represents the difference in returns between stocks with robust profitability vs stocks with weak profitability
CMA
Conservative minus Aggressive
* represents the difference in returns between stocks with conservative investment vs stocks with aggressive investment
How is the efficient frontier calculated?
By changing weights of risky assets to minimise the variance for a given return, or maximise the return for a given variance
Explain how two firms can have the same expected return but one has a significantly higher standard deviation
- standard deviation = total risk = systematic + unsystematic risk
- CAPM only rewards for bearing systematic risk
- As diversifiable risk can be eliminated through efficient asset allocation, the presence of this risk is purely down to the manager’s asset choice and, in an efficient market, would not be compensated
Weak form efficiency
prices reflect all historical market information
Semi-strong form efficiency
Prices reflect all publicly available information
Strong form efficiency
Prices reflect all information including public and private
Frame dependance
If an investment problem is presented in two different ways (with identical results), investors often make inconsistent choices
House money effect
More likely to take big risks with money already gained (house money)
CAL
represents all possible portfolio combinations of risk-free assets and risky assets
Criticisms of Fama French 5 Factor
- profitability and investment factors are less robust
- ignores momentum
Information Ratio
- measures a managers ability to generate excess returns relative to a benchmark, adjusted for the additional risk taken
Modigliani and Modigliani Ratio
- measures risk-adjusted performance
- A portfolio manager who has taken the same risk as its benchmark should generate returns similar to the benchmark
- adjusts a portfolio’s risk to match the risk of a chosen benchmark and calculates the hypothetical return the portfolio would achieve at that risk level
Sortino Ratio
- performance metric that evaluates a portfolio’s return relative to its downside risk
- focusing only on negative volatility (returns below a target or minimum threshold)
- modification of Sharpe, better as it only penalises downside risk; especially when investors are primarily concerned with avoiding losses
The Equity Premium Puzzle
- a financial anomaly referring to the observation that historical returns on stocks have significantly exceeded returns on risk-free assets by a margin that is much larger than can be explained by standard economic theories, e.g. CAPM suggests that the premium should be much smaller
- According to models of rational risk aversion, the observed equity premium implies an unrealistically high level of risk aversion among investors
CAPM Limitations
- assumes returns are normally distributed
- reliance on the market portfolio, which is unobservable in reality
- assumes investors can borrow and lend at the risk free rate
Myopic Loss Aversion
- the tendency of people to focus on short-term losses rather than long-term gains
Behavioural Finance Assumptions
- people are normal
- people’s portfolio wants extend beyond high expected returns and low risk, such as for social responsibility and social status
- differences in expected returns are determined by more than differences in risk, such as by levels of social responsibility and social status