Models Flashcards
No tax theory of Modigliani and miller 1958
The theory developed by MM was based on the premise of a perfect capital market:
No transaction costs
No traces
All investors are rationale and risk averse
No individual dominates market
Full market efficiency
MM Argued (to do with WACC)
Investors are rational, ke is directly linked to the increase in gearing
As gearing increases, ke increases in direct proportion
The increase in ke exactly offsets the benefit of cheaper debt finance
Therefore wacc remains unchanged
Conclusion that WACC and value of firm is unaffected by changes in gearing levels and gearing is irrelevant
MM five years later with tax
Modified model to reflect the corporate tax system gives tax relief on interest payments
Debt interest is tax deductible so the kd is lower than before
The increase in ke does not offset the benefit of cheaper debt finance
= wacc falls as gearing increases
Conclusion = gearing up reduces WACC
Optimal capital structure is 99.9% gearing
Firms with high levels of gearing why they don’t like it
Increased bankruptcy risks - as hearing increasing the risk of going bankrupt increases, which will cause kd to rise and ke to rise faster
Tax exhaustion- tax shield on debt may not be achieved if the company profits are not high enough to cover the interest costs
Agency costs - directors may be more risk adverse than the shareholders as their livelihood depends on the company remaining solvent
Practical influences on gearing policy
Costs of raising finance
Asset quality
Loan covenants
Av of other sources of finance
Levels of other risks
How to calc growth rate over years
Take the end value / start value * to power of 1/number of years then -1 and this is the growth rate per year
Can also be calculated via g = b x r
Where g is growth rate
B is the earnings retained and reinvested as %
R is return on investment %
Market value of shares is
P0 = D0 (dividend) (1+ growth rate) / (ke which is cost of equity - growth rate)
If you need the value of the share then divide by amount of ordinary shares
Investment appraisal (NPV)
Contribution
Fixed costs
Net trading
Tax
Then
Relief on WDA: is the initial x reducing balance then the tax of that amount - express as positive
If doing working capital and says all is back at end then you do -big part first year then - the additional working capital and the last year is the positive of the sun of all them figures to equal 0
Then once done all thag do the dosicount of these
How to calc market value of ordinary shares
If growth over number of years then do the end figure / start figure to power of 1/number of years -1.
Then put in formula:
Ke = dividend (at end) * (1+g growth rate) / price of share now Then add g
That’s cost of equity
Mv is the price of share * amount of ordinary shares
How to calc cost of preference shares and mv of preference shares
Same formula as cost of equity but no growth used
Kp = dividend (at end) / price of share now
To calc div it’s the % of pref shares * 1
Then current price will be given
Mv of shares is the current price * number of shares
To calc cost of bank loan and mv of bank loan
Kd= I which is the interest / 1-T tax rate
No mv so use book value
Redeemable debt calc the cost of debt and mv of debt
To calc cost of debt it’s IY (1-T)
IY is is the interest yield = IRR of loan of cahs flows
In spreadsheet do:
Number of periods
Interest
Current market price
Redemption value 100
IY = RATE(all value stated above) = %
Then for KD= % (1-tax rate)
The market value is amount / redemption value - current market price
To calculate a wacc
Ke * mv of equity (this is ordinary shares)+ kp*mv of pref shares (this is pref shares) + kd *mv of debt (this is all the debt so the bank loan, redeemable debt etc)
Then all divided by mv of equity + mv of pref shares + mv of all debt
Expressed as %
How to calc net asset basis (historical cost) when comes to shares
Add the ordinary share capital + retained earnings then divide by number of orginary shares
This gives value of one share
How to calculate net asset basis (revalued) when cokes to one share
Look for adjustments
So add historic basis calc (ordinary + retained) + add / - any adjustment to land and building equipment etc
Then this figure divided by amount of ordinary shares
Price earnings method for calculating shares
Pe= earnings +* P/E ratio
Earnings is profit after tax and after pref share dividends (NOT ORDINARY)
Then that * PE ratio
To calc money per share : total figure calculate above / amount of ordinary shares
To calculate dividend yield if working out mv of an share
It’s the ordinary dividends / yield
Then this figure / number of ordinary shares if the mv of one share
To calc PV of future Cash flows for one share
Do the pre tax cash flows
Takeaway tax
= net cash flows
Discount factor (1/1+r)
Then sum is pv of cahs flows
To calc value per share ite this figure / number of ordinary shares
Financial gearing formula
Debt / equity or debt / debt + equity
Operating gearing
Fixed costs / variable cost or fixed costs / tota costs
Cost of equity (Ke) formula
If the dividends are expected to grow at a rate of g%, you need to find the price of the share: (also known as mv of share)
Price = dividend (1+growth rate) / ke - g
If share price known:
Ke= dividend (1+ growth rate) / price then add growth rate
Ex div and cum div for shares
Ex div is price quoted directed following a dividend payment (don’t do anything with)
If cum div it needs to be adjusted:
Cum div price - dividend due = ex div share oeice
If says ‘About to pay’ this is cum div
Two ways of estimating growth rate of dividends:
Historic method: annual growth =
To the power of number of years square rooted (dividend at end / number of years Then -1
Or growth = dividend at end / number of years then to power of 1/n then -1
The earnings retention model (golden frowth model):
G = r x b
R = accounting rate kf return on new investment
B = earrings retention rate
You then for both if working cost of equity (Ke) jsut add the figure you calculated for g in the normal formula;
Ke = dividen at end (1+ growth rate) / price of share at end + growth rate
When working out growth of shares when there’s been new issues / right issues
Do the end dividends / number of shares
Then at start for all the rights issue / bonus so say there was a 1:2 in year 2 and 1:1 year 3, apply that to the starting shares for year 1 eg if it was 12 then it’s be 12/2 =6+12=18 then 18*2=36
Then do the dividends oaid / that figure calculated
Then the growth is the last years div per share / first years adjusted div per share All to power of 1/n for number of years. Then take away 1 is the growth (g)
Cost of preference shares (Kp)
Price is = dividend at end / cost of preference shares (Kp)
Then rearrange so Kp= dividend at end / price
Eg 50,000 8% pref shares, nom value £1, mv is 1.20 a share.
The cost of preference shares = 8/1.20=6.7%
Cost of irredeemable debt (Kd) - final part you add to wacc
So the price = interest (1-T) / Kd
So rearrange = Kd = interest (1-T) / price
Eg irredeemable debt trading at 40. Coupon rate is 5% and corp tax is 25%.
Kd = 5%(1-25%) / 40 = 9.375%
How to calc pricd of debenture (last part of WACC)
=PV (investors required return, number of time periods, interest value, redemption value) > put in formula for spreadshads
How to calculate yield on debt
Yoj do the IRR(cash flows)
Or
RATE(number of time periods, interest payment, market value, redemption value)
Then to calc of cost of the debt it’s
The yield * (1-tax)
How to calculate semi annual coupon payments (eg cross yield)
First find out number of time periods eg loan of five years but pay interest every 6 months it’s 10
The interest would be the annual figure then * 6/12
Then use same method:
Rate(number of time periods,interest payment, market value, redemption value) then multiply to get to annual figure eg every 6 months is * 2
How to calculate cost of convertible debt to company
Treat as same as redeemable debt but with adjustments to:
Compare the redemption value with the value of the conversion option
Select the higher of the two values as the amount to be received at Tn
Find the IRR of cash flows
Example:
Company issued convertible loan stock which is due to be redeemed at 5% premium in 5 years time. Coupon rate is 8% and mv is 85 per 100 par. Instead of redemption payment the investor can choose to convert the stock into 20 shares on the same date.
Company’s sharss are worth 4 and value expected to grow at rate of 7%. Corp tax is 25%.
Cost of convertible debt =
First: compare redemption value with conversion value:
Redemption value = 100 x 1.05 = 105
Conversion value is 20 * 4 (1.07)^5 = 112.20
Then select higher of two values to be amount received at Tn so use 112.20
Then to find yield of the debt it’s:
Rate(time periods, interest value, market value, redemption value)
Rate(5,8,-85,112.20) = 14.2%
Then the cost of debt = yield * (1-t)
14.2% * (1-25%) = 10.7%
To calculate non trade bake debt
Cost = interest rate * (1-T)
When is it appropriate to use WACC as a discount rate for a project
- if proportions of debt and equity (gearing) are not going to change over life of the project. If gearing changes then the wacc itself will change and another approach is used (APV).
-if the level of risk is not going to change. The Ke (cost of equity) is dependent on current level of risk the shareholders are suffering. CAPM used to calculate Ke if level of risk may be different eg new business operations
-if the finance is not project specific. The wacc utilities several different types of finance in order to calc average. If they only use one method finance then average isn’t used (would use APV)
Assumptions when using the dividend valuation model
A perfect market is operating to ensure
That the share price is the pv of the future dividends discounted at Ke.
Dividends are paid only once a year and have just been/about to be paid. Sometimes companies pay interim dividends. Also dividend growth is expect to be reasonably constant and predictable (in practice could be erratic)
If using historic dividend to predict growth an assumption past is good diode to future (but if circumstances change in future may not be as reliable)
If using the retention model to predict growth an assumption is made on the rate of return and retention rate will remain constant over time (but circumstances may mean thsi doesn’t take place eg changes)
Other issues using wacc
Ideally only using permanent long term sources kf finance in WACC calculation but some companies use overdrafts, leasing etc these aren’t included in wacc but could affect true cost of capital
Calculating wacc for smaller unquoted trading company is difficult as no market value to obtain accruals results and Amal size usually results in more expensive finance
Main reason for swaps (hedging)
Swaps used to hedge against adverse movement in interest rates eg company has 200m floating rate lon and believe the interest rates are likely to rise over next five years then stable after. The treasurer could enter into a five year swap with counter party for fixed rate of interest for next five years, then on year six move back to floating rate of interests
A swap can be used to obtain cheaper finance (better rates)
Swaps can be run for up to 30 years - pref for long term borrowing
Transaction costs involved in swap may be cheaper than costs involved in refinancing
Disadvantages of swaps (hedging)
Counterparty risk (the risk the counter party will default)
Market risk (the risk of an adverse movement in interest or exchange rates)
Transparency risk (the risk that the accounts may be misleading)
Two types of values when purchases of an option pay a premium to the writer of the option to buy it
Intrinsic value - difference between exercise prince and current market value
Known as in the money - eg market price is 5 and call option of 4.59 would have an intrinsic value of 50p
Time value - difference between actual premium and instrinsic value
Time value of a call option increases with time to expiry, volatility of underlying share and interest rates
Forward/future vs option
Forward /future:
Eliminates risk completely
No downside risk, but no upside potential
If underlying transactions falls through, the business is re-exposed to the risk
Option:
Downside risk is eliminated
Upside potential is retained
If underlying transaction falls through there is still no risk
Therefore options more flexible than forward but are more expensive
Exchange rates
As a trader you buy low and sell high for exchange rates - this is the 1.1-1.2
As the bank will buy the foreign currency at lower rate as they get more money
As the bank will sell the foreign currency at higher rate as they give away less money
IRR
IRR is the IRR(discounted cash flows)
If exceeds cost of capital should accept as will enhance shareholder weath. If below cost of capital should decline
IRR easier to understand for employees and managers but IRR does not calculate the change in absolute shareholder weath. As a conseqnuce it may provide the wrong result when alternative projects are being ranked. Also non conventional cahs flows can create more than one IRR
Benefits of leasing to buying an asset
Tax: tax effects are different
Capital rationing: firms who can’t raise capital finance to buy an asset can effectively use the asset acquired
Cash flow: avoids large cash outlay at the outset. Also predicatble payments with leases easier for business planning
Cost of capital : implicit cost of borrowing a lease can be lower than that in a conventional bank loan
Flexibility: ease of arrangement; lower payment in earlier stages, service, insurance
Hedging with forwards - discount / premium
If discount:
You add the discount to the exhcnzge rate - so the individual get more $ per £
Currency therefore has been depreciated
If premium then less $ per £. If premium then subtract.
Currency is appreciated
Dividend valuation model explanation
Shareholders benefit from owning a share by receiving dividend into the future and a capital gain on the value of the shares.
The pv of there benefits creates the current price of the shares. This share price is determine by expected future dividends discount at investors required rate of return (Ke)
CAPM explanation
CAPM is a specific/unsystematic risk can be diversified away by investors, so it’s assumed that investors are rational and that they have a diversified portfolio. Systematic risk cannot be diversified away - macro economic factors.
A company’s beta is calculated from the performance of its share price against the market average and is taken as a measure of the markets view of the risk attached to the securities in question.
The higher the perceived risk then the higher the beta figure and thus the higher equity return required by investors
What WACC to use scenario - what would you say
Is the gearing too high if they get a loan? Debt / equity
Systematic risk
In reality if something new like loan then new wacc should be calculated that includes the new cost of debt
To calculate APV
Calc a base Cass value at ungeared cost of equity
Calculate the pv of the tax shield arising from extra debt
Adjust for issues costs
Sum = APV, if positive accept .