Mod 03: Risk taxonomy Flashcards
Define risk taxonomy
(ActEd 39)
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Risk taxonomy
A risk taxonomy is a full list, description and categorisation of all risks that an organisation might face.
(ActEd 40)
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Distinguish between risk and uncertainty
(ActEd 41)
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Risk vs uncertainty
The words risk and uncertainty are often used interchangeably in everyday language. However, we may distinguish between them as follows:
Risk
A situation where the actual outcome may be different to the expected outcome
Outcomes known or can be estimated
Risk can often be modelled
Risk can often be managed
Often a choice as to whether to face a risk
Uncertainty
A situation where there is a lack of certainty or knowledge over outcomes
Outcomes are unknown
Uncertainty cannot be modelled
Uncertainty cannot be managed
May not be choice as to whether to face uncertainty
(ActEd 42)
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Outline Lam’s seven risk concepts
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Lam’s seven risk concepts
1) exposure – maximum loss if event occurs
2) volatility – variability of possible outcomes
3) probability – likelihood of event
4) severity – likely loss if event occurs, < exposure
5) time horizon – of exposure to risk, or to recover
6) correlation – degree to which risks behave similarly in response to common events
7) capital – money set aside to cover unexpected losses, support business strategy and develop new products / write new business
(ActEd 44)
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Outline the risks that may be included in a basic risk taxonomy for an insurance company
(ActEd 45)
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Risks in a basic risk taxonomy
A common, basic risk taxonomy is made up of five risk types:
1) market risk – risks arising from changes in market values
2) liquidity risk – risks associated with funding or cashflow requirements
3) credit (or default or counterparty) risk – the risk of failure of a third party to meet contractual obligations in a timely way
4) operational risk – the risk of loss resulting from deficient internal processes, people or systems or loss due to external events
5) underwriting / insurance risk – the risk of accepting risks which turn out to be inappropriate or pricing accepted risks inappropriately.
Market, liquidity and credit risks are commonly described grouped under the umbrella category of financial risks.
(ActEd 46)
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Define market risk
(ActEd 47)
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Market risk
The risks arising from changes in investment market values or other features correlated with investment markets, such as interest and inflation rates. This would include the consequence of investment market value changes on liabilities and may also include the consequence of mismatching asset and liability cashflows.
The term ‘market risk’ may also be used to refer to the risk of lower sales or profit margins resulting from changes in market conditions, where ‘market’ is interpreted as the market into which the products or services of that entity are sold.
(ActEd 48)
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Describe types of market risk associated with changes in values of assets and/or liabilities
(ActEd 49)
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Market risk
Type
Trading risk
Asset / liability mismatch
Liquidity risk
Cause
Trading risk
changes in prices (equity, commodity) or rates (interest, exchange)
basis risk
Asset / liability mismatch
unmatched interest rate sensitivity of assets and liabilities
foreign exchange risk
basis risk
Liquidity risk
inability to fund obligations without sizeable losses
insufficient market capacity leading to adverse impact on market price when deal required
Characterisation: Mismatch risk takes longer to close out than for interest rate trading risk and can be hedged more frequently than the other two types of risk.
(ActEd 50)
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Describe economic risk
(ActEd 51)
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Economic risk
The risks arising from the impact of macroeconomic factors on an organisation and/or its customers. Examples are inflation risks and changes in demand.
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Define interest rate risk
(ActEd 53)
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Interest rate risk
Interest rate risk refers to risks arising from changes in interest rates, which could include impact on customer behaviour as well as the financial impact.
It can be considered a subset of market risk, and can also be a component of economic risk.
(ActEd 54)
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Describe foreign exchange risk
(ActEd 55)
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Foreign exchange risk
Foreign exchange risk is risk arising due to exposure to movement in foreign exchange rates.
Foreign exchange (FX) risk can also be considered a subset of market risk, and a component of economic risk.
Under market risk, foreign exchange rate movements can affect:
- foreign revenues and expenses as expressed in the home currency (transaction exposure)
- prices of exported goods thereby affecting foreign sales (economic exposure)
- consolidated accounts (translation exposure)
(ActEd 56)
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Describe basis risk
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Basis risk
The risk arising from differences in the movements of two comparable indices so that offsetting investments in a hedging strategy will not experience exactly offsetting movements.
For example, hedging a well-diversified portfolio using a FTSE futures contract exposes the investor to basis risk as the value of the portfolio will not move exactly in line with the index future contract.
(ActEd 58)
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Describe credit / counterparty risk
(ActEd 59)
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Credit / counterparty risk
The risk of loss due to contractual obligations not being met (in terms of quantity, quality or timing) either in part or in full, whether due to inability of, or decision by, the counterparty.
Credit risk has two components:
the probability of default
the loss (or recovery) on default.
Many people (including Sweeting) consider the risk of changes in value of an asset due to changes in the credit spread (reflecting a change in actual or perceived creditworthiness) as a market risk.
(ActEd 60)
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Define liquidity risk
(ActEd 61)
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Liquidity risk
Liquidity risk can refer to:
1. the risk of money markets not being able to supply funding to businesses when required (funding liquidity risk)
2. or more broadly to the management of short term cashflow requirements
3. or an insufficient capacity in the market to handle asset transactions at the time when the deal is required and without a material impact on price (market liquidity risk).
(ActEd 62)
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Define insurance risk and underwriting risk
(ActEd 63)
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Insurance risk and underwriting risk
Typically, insurance risk relates to deviations in the timing, frequency and severity of insured events from those expected at underwriting. Underwriting risk, on the other hand, relates to the possible errors in the selection, approval or pricing of insurance risks. This is sometimes referred to (eg by Lam) as actuarial risk.
Insurance risk might be broken into various components such as:
1. demographic risks, eg mortality, morbidity, % married
2. non-life insurance risks, eg property, casualty
3. other risks, eg persistency and expense
Similarly, demographic and non-life insurance risks can be sub-divided into:
1. level (or underwriting) risks – underlying claims incidence (and intensity) is not as expected
2. reserving risk, eg volatility, catastrophe, trend or cycle.
(ActEd 64)
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Define operational risk
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Operational risk
Operational risk is the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or from external events.
The Basel definition, adds: ‘This definition includes legal risk, but excludes strategic and reputational risk.’
Possible components of operational risk include:
1. strategic risk
2. crime risk
3. regulatory (or compliance) risk
4. project risk.
5. process risk, people risk, systems / technology / cyber risks event risk
(ActEd 66)
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Describe legal risk
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Legal risk
Legal risk is risk arising from the understanding of and adherence to legislation, including changes in accepted interpretation.
Adherence also encompasses the need to be able to demonstrate compliance.
Three specific legal risks are:
- impact of new legislation or changes in legislation
- problems arising from important contracts’ provisions
- risks of adverse court judgements.
(ActEd 68)
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