Miscellaneous Flashcards
Recession
When GDP has experienced a decrease in real terms for 2 consecutive quarters or a minimum of six months from baseline of zero
Depression
GDP has experienced a decrease in real terms for 6 consecutive quarters or a minimum of 18 months from baseline of zero
Leading Indicators (definition)
Tend to precede actual economic change
Leading indicator examples
- housing starts
- new unemployment claims
- bond yields (spread between 10 yr treasury & fed funds)
- Indexes of stock prices
- orders for durable goods
- changes in investor sentiment
Coincident indicators (definition)
Those that occur simultaneously during business cycle and confirm the stage the economy is currently experiencing
Economic indicators
Indicate what phase of the business cycle the economy is currently or likely to be in the future
Coincident indicators (examples)
- industrial production
- level of personal income
- amount of corporate profits
Lagging (or confirming) indicators (definition)
Those that usually change after the economy has passed through one business cycle and allow confirmation of a previous economic environment
Lagging indicators (examples)
- prime interest rates
- changes in CPI, particularly for services
- amount of business and consumer loans outstanding
- average duration of unemployment
Inflation
- defined as rise in avg. level of prices of goods and services
- two most common measures are Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Produces Price Index (PPI)
Deflation
- When prices are falling in absolute terms
- Preservation of capital should be of primary concern
- investments should center on very high-quality debt instruments because interest rates fall significantly in this period and bond prices rise and purchasing power increases
- if deflation is relatively mild, selective purchases of defensive common stocks could be profitable
- if deflation severe, investor should not hold socks
- real assets typically perform poorly
Disinflation
When prices are still rising, but at a declining rate
Stagflation
- Combines high unemployment and high inflation (worst of both worlds)
- Due to reduction in productive output, there are few monetary or fiscal policies that can be implemented to quickly counter its effects.
- Ex. high interest rates may be offset by a contractionary monetary approach; however, that would remove money supply from economy at time where job growth and stimulation to household income are needed
Consumer Legislation Overviews (Acts and Provisions)
- Fair Credit Reporting: REPORT-related
- Truth in Lending: CONTRACT-related
- Bankruptcy, general: Remains on credit report for 10 years
- Chapter 7: liquidation; must wait 8 years to refile
- Chapter 13: wage-earner (repayment) plan
Chapter 7 bankruptcy
- Individual is permitted to keep certain assets, but all others are relinquished to satisfy the costs of bankruptcy and claims of creditors
- state law generally applies (vs. federal) w/ regards to property retention
- Non-dischargeable assets: student loans (unless meets “undue hardship” exception), back taxes (past 3 years), alimony and child support, and debts from “bad acts” such as fraud, misappropriation, etc.
- Protected assets: IRAs - $1,512,350, IRA rollovers - unlimited (if not commingled w/ regular IRA contributions), qualified plans - unlimited, pensions, life insurance, and annuities.
- Inherited IRAs are not protected