Midterm 2 Flashcards
What are the goals of scientific research?
- EXPLANATION: explain properties or relationships
- PREDICTION: predict events
- CONTROL: solve problems & gain understanding
Operationalization
Stating precisely what you plan on measuring & how
Hypothesis
A set of beliefs about the nature of the world
Independent v.s. dependent variable
IV = manipulated DV = measured
How can samples be biased? How can this affect the interpretation of research?
- Not selecting a truly random sample that is a representative of a larger population
- Unable to generalize findings
Type I error
False positive
Type 2 error
False negative (failure of a test to detect an actual outcome)
What is the purpose of a control group?
To compare results to
Reductive approach
- Attempting to understand a complex system by looking at its parts and their interactions
- Using lower levels of analysis to explain phenomenon at higher levels
Level of analysis
The differing complementary views, from biological to psychological to social cultural, for analyzing any given problem
(ex. neurons, molecular biology, biochemistry or when testing a drug, examining histology first then animals)
Confound
When experimental groups differ in more than one way
Prospective
Uses our understanding of a system to make predictions about the future
Retrospective
Uses our understanding of a system to explain what has already happened (detective work)
Expected value
Amount of money you would expect to win in the long run in a better situtation
Base-rate neglect
Tendency for people to mistakenly judge the likelihood of a situation by not taking into account all relevant data
Gambler’s fallacy
- Mistaken belief that chance events are self-correcting
- If a random event hasn’t occurred recently, it is more likely to occur.
What biases can affect our judgment of likelihood and probability?
- Motivated reasoning
- Limited perspectives and cognition
- Bad data and problems evaluating evidence
Overconfidence
Mismatch between estimation of risks and the actual risks
Confirmation bias
More likely to decide a favorable outcome
Pollyanna principle
- a.k.a. “Wishful thinking”
- the idea that if we want something to happen, it will
- tendency to believe that pleasant events are more likely to happen than unpleasant ones
Psychological reactance
- WE DON’T LIKE BEING TOLD WHAT TO DO
- resistance arising from restrictions of freedom
- some people will select a less preferred alternative if they are told they must select the preferred alternative
Stages of problem solving
- PREPARATION: understanding the nature of the problem
- PRODUCTION: producing solution pathways
- EVALUATION: evaluates solution paths in order to pick one
Ill-defined problem
- Many possible answers
- Most problems in life
Well-defined problem
Single correct answer
Anatomy of a problem
- Initial = where you are
- Goal = where you want to be
- Problem space
Problem space
All possible routes that take you from initial state to goal state in a problem
Mean-ends analysis
Break problems downs into subgoals –> brings you closer to the end goal