Midterm 2 Flashcards
Hume on causality
Causal connections are the product of
observation:
Ø Spatial/temporal contiguity (happen at the same time)
Ø Temporal succession (the causer has to happen before what it causes)
Ø Constant conjunction (has to always cause this thing to happen)
Important: causation is a relation between experiences rather than one between facts
Challenge to Hume’s causality
Causality is not directly in the input, nothing in our system ensures that flicking the switch will turn on the light.
Big problem: cause knowledge has to emerge from non-causal input
Causal inference
Infer causal relations from patterns of data.
Difficult because the data is often incomplete, and other models (such as a third party) could be the cause.
Dominant theory: people estimate the strength of causal relations on the basis of covariation between events (do they happen more often together or separately?)
Delta-P rule
Probability of causality = probability that result happens with cause - probability that the result happens without the cause.
If result positive = Generative cause
If result negative = Preventative cause
If result is 0 = non-causal, independent
Crime reasoning experiment
Subjects more
likely to supply interpretation
most supported by the data
when doing so affirmed their
political position
More numerate subjects use
their quantitative-reasoning
capacity selectively to conform
their interpretation of the data to
the result most consistent with
their political outlooks
An Experiment in Motivated
Reasoning (Kahan et al 2016)
Alien experiment
People require disproportionate evidence in favor of the complex
explanation before it can rival the simpler alternative
Axiomatic system
formal system consisting of a set of axioms and inference rules
Goal is to codify knowledge in some domain
Axiom: A statement accepted as true
Inference rule: logical form or guide consisting of premises (or hypotheses) and draws a conclusion
Propositions in axiomatic system
Statement that is stated precisely enough to be either true or false
Proof of a proposition: a sequence of steps that ends with the proposition
Consistency in axiomatic system
A consistent axiomatic system is one that can never derive
contradictory statements by starting from the axioms and following the
inference rules (2 contradictory statement cannot both be true).
If a system can generate both P and not P for any proposition P, the
system is inconsistent.
If a formal system cannot generate any contradictory pairs of
statements it is called consistent.
Completeness in axiomatic system
A complete axiomatic system can derive all true
statements by starting from the axioms and following the
inference rules.
That is, if a given proposition is true, some proof for
that proposition can be found in the system.
An ideal axiomatic system would be complete and
consistent:
It would derive all true statements and no false
statements
Principia Mathematica
Whitehead and Russel
An attempt to formalize mathematical reasoning, attempted to derive all true statements
Gödel’s Incompleteness
Theorem
no axiomatic system
could be both complete and consistent:
No matter what the axiomatic system is, if it is
powerful enough to express a notion of proof,
it must also be the case that there exist
statements that can be expressed in the
system but cannot be proven either true or
false within the system.
Deductive
Reasoning
conclusion follows logically from premises
conclusion is guaranteed to be true
Inductive reasoning
conclusion is likely based on premises.
involves a degree of uncertainty
Deductive Inference Rules
§ If the premises are true, the conclusion is necessarily
true.
§ The premises provide conclusive evidence for the
conclusion.
§ It is impossible for the premises to be true and the
conclusion to be false.
§ It is logically inconsistent to assert the premises but
deny the conclusion.
“Modus Ponens”
If p then q
p
Therefore q
“Modus Tollens”
If p then q
~q
Therefore ~p (need to solve Wason selection task)
Syllogistic Reasoning
The logical validity of the conclusion is determined after
‘accepting’ the premises as true (that is a conclusion that
necessarily follows from the premises)
Major Premise
Minor Premise
Conclusion
Syllogistic reasoning is often subject to belief bias
Ideological belief bias in
syllogistic reasoning
- Liberals are better at identifying flawed arguments
supporting conservative beliefs - Conservatives are better at identifying flawed
arguments supporting liberal belief
Induction tasks
People do better when
contrasting two viable
alternatives than when
evaluating the truth of a single
hypothesis
Radiation problem
Without base problem that hints the solution: only 20% solved it, vs 75% when shown it
These results show that noticing the analogy is a separate step
from constructing the analogy. (Condition 3 > Condition 2.)
Analogical transfer
Reasoning from base problem (previously solved) to target problem, solving problem in one domain based on solution in another domain
* Recognition: identify a potential analog or ‘base’
domain
* Abstraction: abstract general principle from base
problem
* Mapping: apply principle to target
Analogical inference
generalizing
properties/relations from one domain to another