Midterm 2 Flashcards
What are interests?
what actors want to achieve
What are interactions?
the ways choices of two or more actors combine to produce political outcomes
What are strategic interactions?
Each actors strategy or plan of action that depends on other actors strategy
What is an example of strategic interactions?
When Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine, he expected that no one would step up for Ukraine. He made the same calculation when invading Ukraine but that same response didn’t occur
When does joint action for mutual gain occur?
When actors have a shared interest in achieving an outcome and must work together
What is a positiver sum game?
When at least one actor is better off and all other actors are at least the same to how they were before.
What happens when actors have individual interests?
It can cause cooperation to fail, even though their state has an interest in cooperating
What is a coordination problem?
A type of cooperation where actors benefit from working together and have no incentive not to comply
Are coordination problems or collaboration problems easier to comply with?
Coordination problems
What is a collaboration problem?
Actors gain from working together but have incentive not to comply with the agreement.
What is the prisoner’s dilemma?
Two prisoners are offered reduced jail time to snitch on each other. If one snitches, they go to jail for one year, and the other goes to jail for ten years. If both snitch, they both go to jail for 2 years. If neither of them snitch, they both walk free.
Why is the prisoner’s dilemma a good model for collaboration problems?
It shows that even though both parties would be better off working together, they don’t know what the other party is going to do, and they gain from snitching on the other prisoner. Though they aren’t prisoners, deals between countries similarly fall apart because they don’t know what the other is going to do, and might gain from doing something else.
What are sub-problems of collaboration problems?
Free riding and collective action
What is bargaining?
An interaction where actors must choose outcomes that make one better off and one worse off
What is bargaining an example of?
A zero sum game
What is a zero sum gain?
When there is a fixed sum of value between actors, so where one gains, the other must lose
Do most international interactions involve cooperation, bargaining, or both?
Both
What is power?
The ability to get an actor to do something they otherwise wouldn’t do
What are the three methods of exercising power?
Coercion, outside options, and agenda setting
What is coercion?
When an actor threatens/punishes other actors who don’t do what they want.
What are examples of coercion?
An kind of cost, usually economic sanctions or military power
What do outside options mean for power in an interaction?
If you have multiple options, the reversion outcome is better for you than the other party, meaning you can get them to do more.
What does agenda setting do for power?
If you move first, you have the leverage
How do international institutions help cooperation?
They facilitate interactions that otherwise wouldn’t have happened
Can international institutions enforce cooperation?
Because of anarchy, no
How do international institutions make self-enforcement easier?
By setting standard for behavior, verifying compliance, reducing cost of joint decision making, and resolving disputes
What is a bargaining approach?
War is costly, a settlement should exist that all sides prefer
Is it rational to go to war?
No
What are the three kinds of bargaining problems?
Information problems, commitments problems, and indivisibility issues
What is an information problem?
States cannot know the extent of each others true information and resolve
What might a state do if they underestimate their opponent?
Give in too little or demand too much
Why can’t states just tell each other their capabilities?
It is difficult to do this in a credible manner, they might think you’re bluffing
What is a credible threat?
A threat the recipient believe will be carried out
Why is it difficult to make credible threats?
Carrying through threats is costly and there are incentives to misrepresent information
How do states make threats credible?
By communicating their resolve
What is a costly signal?
An action someone with low resolve would not say
What is brinksmanship?
Raising the risk of accidental war
What is arguably the most famous example of brinksmanship?
The Cuban missile crisis
What is tying your hands?
Doing an action that would be impossible or too embarrassing to back down from later
What is a commitment problem?
States can’t trust each other to abide by agreements in the future
What is preventative war?
War to prevent an adversary from becoming powerful in the future
What is a preemptive war?
A war fought with the anticipation that an attack is imminent
What is issue indivisibility?
When an issue seems like it cannot be divided without destroying its value
What is an alliance?
Institutions that help their members cooperate militarily in the event of war
What are the two main types of alliances?
Offensive and defensive
What is an asymmetric alliance?
When members have different responsibilities to each other
What percentage of alliances have been defensive?
70%
When do alliances form?
When states have compatible interests in the same outcome
How do interests to form an alliance arise?
Balancing of power concerns, bandwagoning on a powerful state, ideological similarities, shared identities, and cultural ties
What do alliances do in a bargaining interaction?
They alter calculations
Are you more likely to go to war in an offensive alliance or a defensive alliance?
Offensive
What can alliances do to help overcome information problems?
Signal capabilities and resolve
How do alliances help establish credibility?
It is more likely allies will help each other, versus just cheap talk
How do alliances establish credibility of their own?
Improve their ability to fight together, increase costs of abandonment
What do collective security organizations do?
Promote peace and security among members
What presumption are CSOs based on?
All states have an interest in preventing war
What is the goal of CSOs?
Ensuring changes to the status quo happen peacefully
When is collective security triggered?
When a state attacks or threatens to attack another?
What happens after collective security is triggered?
Members determine if the act was illegal, and if it is, members are called on to act against the crime
How can members of CMOs act against an illegal war?
Economic sanctions to full scale counter war
What do CMOs, like the UN, do besides acting against illegal wars?
Peacekeeping and humanitarian interventions
What is the dilemma of collective security?
There is a collective action problem, with the temptation to free ride, leading to understaffing and underfunding of CMOs
What is the dilemma of the UN Security Council?
They will act in bias
What is the UNSCs bias?
A bias of inaction, the council will likely not agree and will not act
What happens if a member of the UNSC is the aggressor?
Nothing
What is a nuclear weapon?
A bomb that uses nuclear energy in its explosion, the most deadly weapon ever created
What is the only state to ever use a nuclear weapon?
The US
How many states have nuclear weapons?
Currently eight
How many people did the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki kill?
225,000
What is the paradox of the nuclear arms race?
Nuclear weapons are being built in great numbers, never to be used
Why do some states pursue nuclear weapons?
When they face significant military threat that cannot be overcome by traditional means, when there are domestic political gains for policymakers, or for identity reasons
Why does India seemingly have irrational nuclear policy?
They are not responding to security threats, but domestic pressures
Why did France develop nuclear weapons, when almost no other state in Western Europe did?
Their identity was in being a strong military state, and they got their ass kicked in WWII and had to be saved by the allies, so they wanted to appear strong again
Why did Ukraine give up its nuclear weapon arsenal, despite pressures not to, and the security threat on their border?
They wanted to appear to be a good state in the international stage
Why is nuclear strategy critical for the future of humanity?
Because of the mass destruction of nuclear weapons
What are policy options for nuclear weapons?
Use, nonuse, defense, deterrence, non proliferation, and disarmament
What is the leading policy option for nuclear weapons?
Deterrance
What is deterrence?
Discouraging an action through fear of its consequences
How does one deter a nuclear attack?
By being able to credibly retaliate
What is mutually assured destruction?
Each deterrent force must survive a first strike with sufficient capability to effectively retaliate during a second strike on the other country
What is the Nash equilibrium in MAD?
There is no incentive to strike first, and no incentive to disarm
Why do states adopt fail deadly procedures, or stockpile weapons beyond what is rational?
To give credibility, and establish MAD
What is extended deterrence?
Alliances retaliate with a full blown nuclear attack if an ally is nuked
Why is extended deterrence hard to commit to?
The allied state doesn’t want to be nuked in retaliation for their strike
If MAD threats are suicidal, how are threats made credibly?
Through brinksmanship
Why don’t states develop anti ballistic missile capabilities?
Because it removes the mutually assured destruction, and a state that developed it first wouldn’t have to worry about retaliation for attacks
What is the goal of the NPT?
To prevent states from acquiring any more nuclear weapons
What are the three pillars of the NPT?
Non proliferation, disarmament, and right to peaceful use
How effective is the NPT?
Only three states have gotten nuclear weapons since (India, Pakistan, and North Korea)
What would Waltz say about more countries developing nuclear programs?
Creates a stronger MAD world, balancing power globally, and preventing war
What does Sagan say about more countries developing nuclear programs?
There is more potential for accidents and a higher likelihood weaponry falls into terrorist hands
What is a civil war?
A war where the main participants are in the same state
What are the two basic sources of civil war?
Grievance and greed
What is a grievance?
Government discrimination against a group of people
What is greed?
A group’s desire to control more of the country’s resources
What are the three options dissatisfied groups have?
Leave the state, alter policies, and try to take over the state
What is a group who wants to leave a state called?
A separatist group
Do most separatist movements succeed?
No
How do groups alter policies?
Through violence
What are the best examples of overthrowing governments?
African groups overthrowing oppressive apartheid regimes
What are some group level factors that can cause violence within a state?
Strong religious beliefs, religious or ethnic identity, access to resources, greater trust on ethnic lines
What are some country level factors that can cause violence within a state?
political access, capacity for repression, level of wealth, geography, population
What are some international level factors that can cause violence within a state?
Foreign military/financial support
What is terrorism?
The use or threatened use of violence against noncombatant targets by individuals or non state groups for political ends
Why might some argue that being a terrorist is irrational?
They have extremist interests, it is very personally costly to become a terrorist, and attacks sometimes appear to be random
What are the four keys of domestic terrorism, according to the United States?
An act must be dangerous to human life, violate US/state law, intended to intimidate, and occurs in the United States
Why might a suicide bomber be rational?
It is easier to set it off at the best time and kill the most people when there is a human there controlling the bomb
Why are random terrorist attacks rational?
They make people afraid all the time, and have them pressure their policymakers to give in
What is the consequence of terrorist groups holding extremist views?
They will always have low levels of support
Why do terrorist engage in asymmetric warfare?
If they were to take a state on militarily, they would be easily defeated, since they have so few members and so few resources
Why do terrorist organizations operate in cells?
So they are harder to defeat
What are the strategies of violence terrorists use?
Coercion, provocation, spoiling, and outbidding
What is coercion?
A threat/attack in order to change policy
What must a coercive threat the terrorists make have?
It must impose costs, and it must be credible
What is provocation?
An attack to provoke a government to respond harshly, turning people against the government
What is spoiling?
Preventing moderates from succeeding, preventing agreements
What is outbidding?
Multiple terrorist groups competing for support of the people
What is humanitarian intervention?
Where states intervene militarily to protect the lives of civilians other than their own
What are the challenges of humanitarian intervention?
Violates principle of sovereignty, requires states to act with no interest concerned, requires cooperation if multilateral, and often goes against the interests of other states
What do liberals say about humanitarian intervention?
States have a moral obligation to act
What happened in Somalia in the early 90s?
The US withdrew after the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to resentment of the authoritarian government an a poor economy. Civil war broke out, with a famine threatening millions of lives
What happened when UNOSOM was first launched?
It was purely an aid mission, so they couldn’t defend themselves, and 80% of the food aid they were bringing to Somalia was stolen
How was UNOSOM changed to get the food to the people?
They were given an enforcement mandate
How did the Somalian mission creep?
They couldn’t end the famine without ending the civil war first
What was black hawk down?
US black hawks were shot down on a mission to kill a war lord, and the bodies of American soldiers were dragged through the streets while Somalian people cheered
Why do liberals say the US intervened in Somalia?
Lot of optimism about cooperation after the Cold War, and Bush was a lame duck president, so he could do what he thought was right
What happened after the US withdrawal from Somalia?
The civil war continues to rage on today, thirty years later
How did the Rwandan Civil War begin?
The economy collapsed, and groups formed along ethnic lines, and the RPF (Tutsis) attacked the Rwandan military (mostly Hutus)
Why did the Tutsis start the Civil War?
Grievance, they had been discriminated against since the president had taken over twenty years earlier
What was the Interahamwe?
A militia group of civilian Hutus
How did the Civil War in Rwanda initially end?
Foreign governments forced a peace treaty and demanded a government shared by Hutus and Tutsis
What was the initial agreement ending the Rwandan civil war called?
The Arusha Accords
What was UNAMIR?
A UN peacekeeping force designed to ensure the Arusha Accords were kept
Why was UNAMIR weak?
They could not use force if violence broke out
What ended the peace of the Arusha Accords?
The President’s plane was shot down by an unknown perpetrator (either Tutsis dissatisfied with his discrimination, or Hutu extremists hoping to end the moderate rule)
What did the Interhamwe do after the assassination of the president?
They targeted and killed Hutu moderates and Tutsis
What was the event that crippled UNAMIR?
10 Belgian soldiers were killed by Interhamwe, leading to the Belgians pulling out altogether
What was the troop total of UNAMIR after Belgium, France, and the United States pulled out?
450 troops
Why did the genocide end in Rwanda?
The RPF successfully overthrew the government
Why did technology contribute to the Rwandan genocide?
Popular government sponsored radio stations broadcasted messages to the citizens to kill all Tutsis
What could the international community have done to prevent the Rwandan genocide?
Sent troops to Rwanda during the early period of the genocide to stop most of it from taking place
Why was it difficult to organize a response to Rwanda?
Logistics of sending troops, lack of political will (right after Somalia), and the question of whether the west knew there was a genocide
How was Yugoslavia first formed?
In 1918, the Ottoman/Hapsburg empire broke up, and in WWII there was a mass Civil War in the region over supporting Hitler (Croats), the allies (Serb nationalists), or communists (Tito)
Who won the civil war in Yugoslavia in WWII?
Tito
What was Yugoslavia like under Tito?
He ruled with an iron fist, making sure the people identified with Yugoslavia, and him, before their ethnic groups
What are the republics and provinces of Yugoslavia?
Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Hertzegovina, Serbia, N. Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Vojvodina
What happened in Yugoslavia after Tito died?
The lid was removed on oppression of ethnic identities and ethnic groups started wanting more power
How did Milosovec first rise to power?
He gave a voice to Serbs in Kosovo who wanted to remain part of Serbia
What happened when Croatia decided to declare independence from Yugoslavia?
The Serbs in the area became enraged, and the Croat-Serb War broke out
Why was the Croat-Serb War particularly brutal?
Croats and Serbs were mass executing one another
Who won the Croat Serb War and what was the result?
The Croats won, but the economy was destroyed and thousands died or fled the state
What was the European reaction to the Croat-Serb War?
Germany demanded Croatia be recognized as an independent sate, while Bosnia was worried about what the war meant for them
What did the UN do when Bosnia asked for help before the war broke out?
Declined their request
What happened in the Bosnian-Serb War?
Bosnian Serbs mass slaughtered Bosnian muslims, ethnic cleansing became the term to describe what was happening
What are some methods for ethnic cleansing?
Forced migration, eliminating ability to fight back, terrorizing group to make reconciliation impossible (mass rape), and genocide
What was the international reaction to the Bosnian ethnic cleansing?
- Moral condemnation/economic sanctions
- UN attempt to broker peace
- US proposal of a lift and strike strategy to supply Bosnian muslims with arms and strike Serb bases
- Europe and NATO disagreeing with military intervention
Why was UNPROFOR useless?
They had a mandate to enforce a peace that didn’t exists and they could not use force
What event especially shows how useless UNPROFOR was?
The Srebenica Massacre
Why did the tide turn against Serbia in the Bosnian war?
Iran and Croatia joined against the Serbs, and NATO started striking their bases
Why did the US demand an immediate ceasefire in the Bosnian Croat War, when they could’ve won totally?
They didn’t want to much for the Serbs (remember the Treaty of Versailles)
What sparked the Kosovo War?
Kosovo Albanians wanted to break off from the Serbian government
What did the Serbian government try to do to the Kosovo Albanians?
Ethnically cleanse them
Why couldn’t the Serbs ethnically cleanse in Kosovo like they did in Bosnia?
The international reaction was swift, and the violence had to stop almost immediately
How do realists explain the differences in intervention?
State interests and acting when the hegemon takes the lead
How do liberals explain the differences in intervention?
Domestic politics and public opinion towards intervention, effectiveness of international institutions, and learning
How do marxists explain the differences in intervention?
Interests of powerful corporations (but not a lot of interests in many states that were intervened in), military industrial complex, natural resources
How do constructivists explain the differences in intervention?
Common identity with the target state, strength of the norm, and racist ideologies
