Midterm 2 Flashcards
Hume & causality
•causal connections are product of observation
- spatial/temporal contiguity
- temporal succession
- constant conjunction
•relation between experiences not between facts (IN MIND)
Where does causal knowledge emerge from?
non causal input
Causal inference
infer causal relations from patterns of data
Why is causal inference difficult?
- probabilistic and incomplete data
- small samples
- different models can generate same data
Dominant theory of causal relations
people estimate the strength of causal relations on the basis of covariation between events
Contingency tables
Represent outcomes of numerous trials in which cause C is present/absent and effect E is present/absent
Delta-P rule
ΔP = P(E|C) - P(E|~C) P(E|C) = 1/(1+2) P(E|~C) = 3/(3+4) when ΔP + --> C = generative cause when ΔP - --> C = preventative cause when ΔP = 0 --> C = independent of E (non causal)
Common causality mistakes
- often people only compare when cause is present
- only compare when effect is present
Motivated Reasoning experiment
- liberal democrats more likely to correctly identify results by data in crime decreases condition
- conservative republicans more likely to correctly identify results by data in crime increases condition
Simplicity in understanding causes
Occam’s razor: simpler explanation is better (parsimony)
- causal structure (like contingency) must be inferred from input
Alien Disease Experiment
Alien with symptoms S1 and S2
- either has Tritchet’s Syndrome (S1+S2), Morad’s D (S1), Humel I (S2)
- most people said alien had Tritchet’s
Alien Disease Experiment with probability info
majority still choose D1 even though D2 & D3 is mathematically more likely
- people need disproportionate evidence in favour of complex explanation before it can rival simpler one
Deductive Reasoning
- conclusion follows logically from premises
- conclusion guaranteed to be true
Inductive Reasoning
- conclusion likely based on premises
- involves degree of uncertainty
Deductive Inference Rules
1) if premises are true, conclusion is true
2) premises provide conclusive evidence for conclusion
3) impossible for premises to be true and conclusion false
4) logically inconsistent to assert premises but deny conclusion
Modus Ponens
if p then q
p
therefore q
Modus Tollens
if p then q
~q
therefore ~p
Wason Selection task
"if card has vowel on one side then it has an even number on the other" E K 4 7 most people say to flip E and 4 correct answer actually E and 7 (apply modus tollens)
More Concrete version of Wason Task
if person is drinking beer then person must be over 21
‘drinking beer’ ‘drinking coke’ ‘16 yo’ ‘22 yo’
people find the correct answer
Syllogistic Reasoning
all A are B (major premise) all B are C (minor premise) therefore all A are C (conclusion) - logical validity of conclusion is determined entirely after accepting the premises as true - often subject to belief bias
ideological belief bias in syllogistic reasoning
liberals are better at identifying flawed arguments supporting conservative beliefs and vice versa
Mental Models
- postulated by Craik
- models constructed in working memory as a result of perception, comprehension of discourse, or imagination
- mental representations
- can underlie reasoning
- used to formulate conclusions & test strength of conclusions
- alternative to view that depends on formal rules of inference
What do mental models represent?
They represent explicitly what is true but not what is false
–> unexpected consequence = illusory inferences (belief bias)
mental model (Frenchmen & gourmets example)
all frenchmen are gourmets
some gourmets are wine drinkers
people say: some frenchmen are wine drinkers
construct model consistent with both premises
replace with Italians in last premise:
no one draws the same conclusion, different mental model
Wason’s 2-4-6 task
have to find the rule, given 2 4 6 is an ascending sequence
70% offer incorrect rule on first announcement
Dual Goal Wason task
correct and incorrect sequences labelled as DAX and MED
60% induced rule correctly
–> people do better when contrasting two viable alternatives
What’s special about thinking?
- structure-sensitive
- -> reasoning, etc. depends on capacity to represent and manipulate relational knowledge
- flexible in way in which knowledge is accessed
- -> apply old knowledge to new situations
Relational thinking across species: Match-to-sample task
B or C more like A?
chimpanzees answer differently than humans
Relational/Analogical Inference
- Inductive in nature
- analogical inference: generalizing properties/relations from one domain to another
- analogical transfer: solving problem in one domain based on solution in another domain (ex: fortress/radiation problem)
Gick/Holyoak radiation problem
control: no base problem no hint, 20%
base problem no hint: 30%
base problem + hint: 75%
Analogical transfer steps
Recognition (identify possible analog or base domain)
Abstraction (abstract general principle from base problem)
Mapping (apply principle to target)
Analogical inference
knowledge about base domain can be used to reason about target domain
–> structure mapping
Relations
- can be represented as a proposition which specifies which element fill the roles of the predicate
- can be nested within other relations (higher-order relations)
structured relational representations
attribute: big(sun)
lower-order relation: bigger(sun, planets)
higher-order relation: CAUSE[bigger(sun, planets), revolves around(planet, sun)]
analogy
when two conceptual domains share relational similarity
- one-to-one mapping: sun –> nucleus
- parallel connectivity: sun –> nucleus & planets –> electrons
constraints on analogical mapping
systematicity: deeply nested relational structures make better analogies
Manipulation of irrelevant superficial features (WWII vs. Vietnam)
subjects’ preferred policy was significantly more interventionist when scenario contained WWII features than Vietnam features
Structural Alignment
- helps people align objects based on relational positions rather than superficial similarity
- surface or structural similarity?
Relational reasoning in children
when given triads that showed relational pattern across different dimensions, have difficulty recognizing similar pattern
Theory of progressive alignment
comparison of highly similar before less similar items fosters re-representation of relevant relations
–> children more able to recognize