Midterm Flashcards
Based on research, which type of judgment has generally been shown to be more accurate?
Actuarial
What is an example of an Actuarial approach to judgement?
The Goldberg Rule
In general, when looking at the relationship between the accuracy of human judgment and humans confidence that their judgments are correct, we most often observe…
Over Confidence
The probabilistic mental model approach to understanding decision making suggests that we use_____ to make judgments
One single cue that differentiates from our alternatives
In the Lens model, the lines from the criterion to cue’s represent
Ecological validities (how well a cue predicts an outcome)
A predictive linear model determines the weights for each cue… 
From past human behavioral data
What is a cue judgment?

Information that can be used to differentiate between two or more outcomes 
To make an actuarial judgment, using a linear model, more accurate, you could…..

Add more cues to the model

In the probabilistic mental models approach to understanding decision-making, people use ______to discriminate between options 
Cues
Heuristics, like recognition or take the best, are often used for judgment, rather than actuarial approach, because

They provide a good trade off between effort and accuracy
Which method of a decision would be an example of system one thinking? 
The availability heuristic
When asked about the likelihood of passing her next test, Syria felt it was unlikely because she did poorly on her last test, despite the fact that she has a 3.5 GPA. What heuristic is she using to make her judgment?
Availability
Research has shown that one judging the probability, an implicit disjunction, they will underestimate the probability of an event compared to when it is presented as an explicit disjunction. What is this affect called?
Subadditvity?
Athletes, for example, basketball players, often believe in something, called the “hot hand “affect, where they go on streaks where they are most likely to make the next several shots because they have made the last several. There is no statistical evidence for the hot hand players will play to their skill level, overtime, and the distribution of success in between is not casual. What heuristic do you think could be used to explain why athletes often believe this?
Representativeness 
One effective method, for reducing the conjunction bias is….
Both cues for extensionality and encouraging system 2 thinking help
When, judging the probability of an outcome, say the likelihood you have Covid, people tend to ignore how rare is the condition is in focused and said on the evidence. This leads to inflated estimates for rare, unlikely outcomes. This is because people are ignoring the…….
Base rate of the event
Irrational, system to method of determining the probability of any outcome is
Bayes theorem 
In general, research has found that hindsight bias is greater when….
The outcome of an event is negative
Smith & Marshall (2016) demonstrated that anchors do what in judgment?
Increase our confidence that we are correct 
The tendency for people to assume that their personal qualities, characteristics, beliefs, and actions are relatively widespread and shared in the general population has been called
The false, consensus bias
Thomas believes that dogs are more friendly than cats. When someone on the Internet challenge his assumption, he did a Google search for information to support his hypothesis and concluded he was right all along. What bias did Thomas fall? Pray to?
Confirmation bias
Who are the researchers associated with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
Tversky & Kahneman
In which situation are you most likely to observe the anchoring in adjustment affect?
When deciding how much to pay for a car after the dealer gives you they’re selling price

According to the elaboration likelihood model, if someone was influenced by the attractiveness of a speaker, they were in which row to persuasion?
Peripheral
Also, according to the ELM, if you engage a listener in the_____ route, an attitude changes, that change is more likely to be a long lasting and enduring
Central
The explanation based decision making model by Pennington and Hastie suggests that persuasive arguments……
Tell their fax in a cohesive story
In the 1988 study by Pennington and Hosti, they found that presenting an argument to a mock jury in the form of a story…..
Increase the strength of the verdict
Makian worth found which pattern of results, supporting the elaboration, likelihood, model, and their factorial study on persuasion to be true?
When people likely to be in a peripheral route, there was no difference an attitude change between a strong in a week argument
Functional theory suggest that counter factual thoughts are….
Positive for behavioral change
Counter, fractional reasoning, has been found to be more likely to occur if
The outcome wasn’t as positive as expected 
In the study by Roses ( 1994) on students who had just done poorly on a exam, which group were more likely to change their behavior for the next exam?
Upward counter-factional thinkers
