Mental models Flashcards
What is First Principles Thinking?
A method of breaking down complex problems into their most basic elements and rebuilding solutions from scratch, without relying on analogies or conventional wisdom.
How do you apply First Principles Thinking?
- Question every assumption
- Identify fundamental truths
- Build solutions from these basic truths
- Avoid relying on analogies
What is Second-Order Thinking?
Looking beyond the immediate consequences of decisions to understand their long-term and indirect effects.
What question helps implement Second-Order Thinking?
“And then what?” - repeatedly asking this helps map out consequence chains.
What is Inversion?
A method of approaching problems backward by focusing on what you want to avoid rather than what you want to achieve.
How do you apply Inversion?
Instead of asking “How do I succeed?”, ask “What would guarantee failure?” Then work to avoid those factors.
What is Systems Thinking?
Understanding how different parts interact within a larger system, rather than analyzing parts in isolation.
What are the key elements of Systems Thinking?
- Mapping relationships
- Identifying feedback loops
- Recognizing emergent properties
- Considering indirect relationships
The MECE principle stands for ______ and ______.
[Mutually Exclusive] and [Collectively Exhaustive]
In Pattern Recognition, you should: 1. ______ 2. ______ 3. ______.
- Look for similarities across fields
- Identify common failure modes
- Transfer solutions between domains
The Circle of Competence framework involves:
1. ______
2. ______
3. ______
4. ______.
- Knowing what you know
- Knowing what you don’t know
- Staying within your expertise
- Expanding competence strategically
When using Decision Trees, you should:
1. ______
2. ______
3. ______.
- Break decisions into smaller choices
- Assign probabilities to outcomes
- Calculate expected values
Give an example of using Systems Thinking in business
Analyzing a company’s customer service:
Consider :
- How support team size affects response times
- How response times affect customer satisfaction
- How satisfaction affects reviews
- How reviews affect new customer acquisition
- How this cycles back to support team needs
How would you combine First Principles and Inversion?
- Break down the problem to fundamentals (First Principles)
- Ask what would make each fundamental element fail (Inversion)
- Design solutions that address both the core elements and prevent failure modes.
Provide a real-world example of Second-Order Thinking
Considering a price discount:
1. First-order effect : increased sales
2. Second-order effects :
- Reduced profit margins
- Customer expectations of future discounts
- Competitor responses
- Potential brand value degradation
How would you apply mental model stacking to decide on a career change?
- First Principles: What truly matters in a career?
- Circle of Competence: What am I genuinely good at?
- Second-Order Thinking: Long-term implications?
- Opportunity Costs: What am I giving up?
- Probabilistic Thinking: Success likelihood in different paths?
How would you use MECE to analyze reasons for project failure?
Categories:
1. People (skills, motivation, leadership)
2. Process (planning, execution, monitoring)
3. Resources (time, budget, tools)
4. External Factors (market conditions, regulatory changes)
