Mental models

Question 1

Reciprocity:
- how do you encode reciprocity?
- summarise in one sentence
- Why is reciprocity is a worthy mental model, how does it operate, what situations is it most relevant for me?

Answer 1

one sentence: You get what you give.

encode: (image of vampire bat)

Top ten points
1. We have evolved to reciprocate because it helps us cooperate, which offers a survival advantage. Today, reciprocity is foundation to our societies, economies and relationships.

2. Reciprocity exists in the animal kingdom too. Examples of in the animal kingdom include a) host fish and cleaner fish - the cleaner fish benefits the host fish by cleaning its parasites of its body and the cleaner fish benefits by getting a meal. The deal is that the host fish doesn’t eat the cleaner fish in order for both to benefit over time. b) vampire bats die after 70 hours of not eating a blood meal. Even in high stakes like this, vampire bats will regurgitate their blood and share it with other bats, and they are more likely to be helped in a time of need.
3. People feel obliged to reciprocate to reward or punish others, which maintains the social norm of reciprocity.) For this reason, you get what you give. People tend to offer to you what you have offered them. This norm begins early. Children as young as two have been found to be more likely to share with children who share with other children, even it wasn’t them they shared with.
4. You have reciprocity between two parties, but also exists across multiple people such as a network (think a interest page on social media). When working with networks of people, pay it forward reciprocity is when someone does something for you and you do something for someone else. This mechanism is based on gratitude and/or reputational concern. Reputational reciprocity is when you do something for someone with an expectation that people who see you acting prosocially will be more likely to do favours for you.
5. The types of reciprocity are based on the timing of the expected reciprocity and whether it is based on two people or a network of people. e.g. Regarding timing, you expect immediate reciprocity when you buy something from the shop. But gifts offered in friendships, the workplace or amongst states, reciprocity is expected ‘sometime in the future’.
6. Reciprocity is most relevant for me in a) family and friends b) workplace. At the least, I want to avoid negative reciprocity to a reasonable extent, particularly with consequential people or situations by acting prosocially
7. The big idea is that you can shape how people treat you by how you treat them. So think about how you would like to be treated and treat people like that. If people are treating you in a way you don’t like, reflect on if they are reciprocating what you are giving them. Through reciprocity, we can create the world we want.

Question 2

Feedback loops

Answer 2

The value of feedback loops is to be aware of feedback you get, with the intention to iterate based on that feedback.

If you don’t listen to feedback you will likely be less aware, repeat mistakes or perpetuate ineffective systems.

Relevant to:
- Workplaces (e.g. feedback on piece of work or your performance)
- Relationships: (facial expressions, emotional tone responding to what you’re saying)
- Challenges (obstacles to habits you’re trying to develop or perpetual problems arising at work are all feedback)

It’s also valuable to be aware of the feedback you are giving, as well as receiving.

Question 3

Equilibrium

Answer 3

The value of equilibrium as a model is recognising that systems are often dynamic and we need to take continuous action to maintain balance.

This applies to organisations, relationships, economies, democracies and more.

Entropy is a related model. Entropy is the descent towards toward. Equilibrium is when the system is in temporary balance.

Question 4

Bottlenecks

Answer 4

Bottlenecks are ‘the limiting factor’ that prevents a system from operating more effectively.

By recognising bottlenecks, you can then develop effective solutions to improve the system.

Question 5

Scale

Answer 5

Scale is how big or small something is. It’s value as a model is to consider the scale that you need to achieve your goals, and recognise the pros and cons of each.

Scaling things to be larger such as profits or an organisation is often seen as something positive.

But keeping things at a smaller scale can also be beneficial. Small and large scale comes at various pros and cons. The right scale for your needs depends on your goals.

For example, Japanese businesses have lasted hundreds of years by keeping their staff numbers small within a family business and developing trust and connection with locals over generations.

Question 6

Margin of safety

Answer 6

Margin of safety relates to how much buffer you give yourself for unexpected events or outcomes.

Margin of safety is applied at work, or in engineering in building things. But learning is also building a margin of safety. The more we learn the fewer blind spots we have.

Question 7

Churn

Answer 7

All systems have churn.

Churn is sometimes negative, such as when you lose people from your email database.

But churn is sometimes positive. You want there to be churn in political leadership, Board members to allow new ideas and reduce corruption.

Question 8

Algorithms

Answer 8

Algorithms are a clear set of rules that provide instruction on what to do.

They can include if-then processes.

Algorithms as a model suggests a way of thinking that explores what processes can be put in place to reach our goals.

Question 9

Critical mass

Answer 9

Critical mass refers to when a threshold is crossed which forces a change.

Examples.
Critical mass of people protesting forced the government to act. Critical mass of people on a social networking site to get it to scale.

When a system is about to hit critical mass, it only takes a small nudge to push it to another state.

Critical mass and activation energy are related models. Activation energy considers the critical mass to get something done.

Activation energy is worth considering prior to a project to see it through. Critical mass helps you be aware of when a system is almost at a tipping point.

Question 10

Emergence

Answer 10

Emergence is when a collection of parts produces more than than the sum of their parts.

Like in a team. Together, the team can produce something greater than the sum of their individual contributions.

It’s similar to synergy.

Question 11

Irreducibility

Answer 11

Irreducibility is making things as simple as possible, but no simpler.

It is identifying the minimum amount of structure, time, components required to achieve something.

You understand what is essential to make a system function. It’s related to first principles thinking.

Question 12

Law of diminishing returns

Answer 12

Law of diminishing returns shows us that the relationship between input and output is not always linear.

You’ve likely hit diminishing returns when you’re eating the tenth spoonful of ice-cream compared to the first.

Hanging out with a friend for another hour after the fourth hour, may result in diminishing returns.

Adding more people to your team after a certain point, won’t produce the same output as the first few recruits to the team.

The ninth hour of sleep is not likely to be as valuable as the first.

This model also reveals that change is an essential element of moving forward. If your results are declining, you’ve likely hit diminishing returns.

Question 13

Compounding

Answer 13

Compounding shows us that small investments made consistently over time grows exponentially.

Compounding reveals the benefits of consistency and long-term thinking when it comes to money, relationships and knowledge.

Compounding is relevant for the positive, but also for the negative. Poor habits can compound over time - like smoking.

With compounding, the biggest returns can come at the end, particularly with money and knowledge.

Question 14

Sampling

Answer 14

Sampling is useful as a model because you understand the importance of samples which are representative, when you are trying to understand reality.

Two examples of quality data is that it is representative with sufficient diversity, and accurate.

You want to be aware of their stated view compared to their actual view. If you are getting data, you need to do it in a way that will incentivise people to state their actual view.

Recognising the limits in sampling helps you to remember that your limited map is not the territory, and prevents overconfidence.

Question 15

Randomness

Answer 15

Randomness as a model reveals that sometimes our explanations as to why something happened is unhelpful.

If there is no way to genuinely predict what happened, then it was random.

Question 16

Pareto principle

Answer 16

The pareto principle is based on the idea that a small amount of the inputs can create the vast majority of the outputs.

Sometimes seen in an 80:20 ratio.

20% of the effort creates 80% of the results.

80% of users only use 20% of features on an app.

20% of staff produce 80% of the work.

A small amount of the tactics produce the vast majority of the impact.

What are the inputs creating the most impact, and how can we invest into that?

Question 17

Regression to the mean

Answer 17

Regression to the mean reminds us that moderate outcomes likely follow extreme ones.

Outlier events will happen occasionally, but we shouldn’t assume that they are the norm. Being able to repeat something multiple times will give greater confidence in the average outcome.

You don’t want to misinterpret outlier events as the norm.

Question 18

Multiplying by zero

Answer 18

Any number multiplied by zero is zero.

This model teaches us to look for the weakest part of a system - the part that could cause the whole system to fail - and shift it from being a zero to a one.

This is about identifying what is likely to produce the worst case scenario, and improving that to avoid a disaster.

This is related to inversion, and helps to minimise risk.

Question 19

Equivalence

Answer 19

Equivalence doesn’t mean same, but of equal value.

It reminds us that there is often multiple ways to solve a problem.

For example, reciprocity can be of equal value, rather than the same favor or gesture.

Multiple sports have an equivalence in terms of getting fit.

Question 20

Surface area

Answer 20

Surface area is about recognising when increasing your exposure to something will help you and when it will harm you.
NB: I need to better understand what surface area is.

Question 21

Global and local maxima

Answer 21

The maxima and minima of a mathematical function are the largest and smallest values over its domain. Although there is one maximum value - the global maximum - there can be smaller peaks of value in a given range - the local maxima.

Using global and local maxima as a model is about knowing when you have hit your peak, or if there is still potential to go higher. It reminds us that sometimes we have to go down a smaller hill first to reach a higher peak on another hill.

the model helps us see that achieving our goals is not a steady upward trajectory but a path full of peaks and valleys.

Also, it’s more powerful to make the big changes (choose the right hill or our global maxima) before we optimise the details.

Question 22

Relativity

Answer 22

Relativity in physics shows us that two observers in relative motion experience time differently.

Relativity as a broader model reveals our perspective is limited, other people can contribute to a fuller map of a situation. It highlights that two seemingly contradictory views could both be right (or wrong).

Question 23

Thermodynamics (equalibrium)

Answer 23

Equilibrium
- Equilibrium in physics is that everything moves towards equilibrium, such as two temperatures mixed together become the same temperature.

• As a mode, we can see that it’s difficult to keep cultures in direct contact from sharing ideas.

Question 24

Thermodynamics (entropy)

Answer 24

Entropy exists because there are many more ways for things to be disordered than ordered. We need to invest energy to create order.

Question 25

Inertia

Answer 25

• Inertia relates to Newton’s law of motion. Objects in motion stay in motion. Objects at rest stay at rest - unless acted upon by another force.
• One side of inertia is resistance. When you come up against an object at rest, particularly if it’s quite heavy, the inertia is the resistance to get it to move.
• The other side of inertia is momentum. When you try to stop an object in motion, the inertia is the resistance to get it to stop.
• Inertia is useful for recognising the ‘activation energy’ required to start or stop something, such as shifting culture, habits, patterns of thinking.
• Inertia is also useful for using momentum to your advantage. When you have momentum, protect it, and use it to your advantage.
• Connected models (activation energy). Inertia is the resistance to getting something to start. Activation energy is the energy required to see something to its end point. You consider the inertia, whether it’s resistance or momentum, when considering the energy it will take to do something.

Question 26

Friction

Answer 26

It can be as effective to reduce friction than to apply more energy. This is because if you need to apply energy to do something when there is considerable friction, removing the friction will save the energy required to move through that friction.

Rather than trying to do more only by applying more energy, we could ask how we could do more by reducing friction.

Friction is like trying to swim through honey.

Question 27

Velocity

Answer 27

Velocity is about direction as well as speed. The direction we are moving in is more important than how fast we are going.

Related model: local and global maxima.

Difference is that local and global maxima helps you see that achieving goals and reaching your potential contains peaks and valleys. Velocity is about ensuring you are climbing the right hill.

Question 28

Leverage

Answer 28

Leverage is like using a lever. You can lift more by using the lever than without. Leverage is a form of power.

It’s worth thinking through what leverage you have in various situations and what leverage others have.

Answer 29

Activation energy is the energy you need to complete the thing you want.

Creating lasting change is harder than creating short term change. Activation energy teaches us not to underestimate the energy required to achieve something.

It teaches us to build in a margin of safety, to be ready to invest more than we need too. It prevents us from starting something that we don’t finish because we underestimated the energy it took to complete it.

Question 30

Catalysts

Answer 30

Catalysts accelerate change that is capable of occurring anyway. People and technologies often act as catalysts, increasing the pace of social change and development.

Question 31

Alloying

Answer 31

Alloying is combining components in combinations to produce a substance that can achieve what individual elements can’t.

Alloying is combining skills, people or components to achieve something greater than the sum of their parts.

An engineer with excellent communication skills, who is emotionally intelligent is more powerful than an engineer without communication skills or empathy.