Markov Flashcards
What is the Markovian hypothesis?
The probability of the current state depends only on the previous state, not on the entire history.
How is a homogeneous Markov chain parameterized?
By a starting distribution π and a transition matrix A.
What does the transition matrix A represent in a Markov chain?
A[i,j] represents the probability of transitioning from state i to state j.
How is the probability of a sequence calculated in a Markov chain?
P(x₁, …, xₙ) = πx₁ * ∏ᵢ₌₂ⁿ A[xᵢ₋₁, xᵢ]
What does Aᵏ(i,j) represent in a Markov chain?
The probability of going from state i to state j in exactly k steps.
What are two key properties of a “well-behaved” Markov chain?
Irreducibility and aperiodicity.
What is an irreducible Markov chain?
A chain where it’s possible to get from any state to any other state in a finite number of steps.
What is an aperiodic Markov chain?
A chain where there are no closed loops that can only be traversed at fixed intervals.
What is the stationary distribution of a Markov chain?
A probability distribution μ that satisfies μ · A = μ.
How quickly does a well-behaved Markov chain converge to its stationary distribution?
Exponentially fast.
What is a key limitation of Markov chains?
They cannot model long-range effects due to their “short-term memory”.
What is an order-k Markov model? What is a drawback of higher-order Markov models?
A model where the current state depends on the k previous states. The number of parameters increases exponentially with the order.
Probability of non consecutive events (state A to state B) in Markov chain?
Sum of probabilities of all possible sequences that start with state A and end with state B.
How are the parameters of a Markov chain typically estimated?
Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation based on observed state transitions.
What is a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)?
Statistical Model used to represent systems that transition between hidden states, while producing observable outputs (emissions). It is used to make inferences about sequential data with short-term dependency and implicit constraints.