Managerial Economics Flashcards
What is the fundamental concept behind economics?
- social science
- allocate scarce resources in the most efficient way possible to satisfy as many of societies wants as possible
Scarcity:
- all resources (natural, human, capital goods) are limited in comparison to society’s infinite wants
- decision making is therefore important
What are opportunity costs?
- Related to a decision
- benefits to the society of what is sacrificed or given up when a choice is made
What is the difference between Micro and Macroeconomics?
Why are they important?
Microeconomics:
- branch of economics that studies the behaviour of individual economic units
- focus on firm, consumers, specific markets
Important for managers: pricing, output, strategies and the potential of impacting cost, demand, revenue and profit
Macroeconomics:
- study of the economy as a whole
- focus on aggregate (total) expenditure and aggregate (total) consumption
- international trade, government spending, taxation and money supply
Important for managers: estimate current market situation, understand politic environment, predict economic cycles
What are normative economics?
Normative = opinion about what the government “ought to” or “should do” or how the economy “should be”
What are positive economics?
Positive = facts and statements that can be tested in practice
What the difference between deductive and inductive methods?
What are the purposes of them?
Deductive
- hypotheses are made, tested and then rejected or approved based on quantitive analysis of data
Inductive:
- economics create theories based on facts which have been determined after the analysis of data
–> Economists use both methods to find support for their economic theories, build theories or create new theories
What is ceteris paribus?
What does it mean?
Economists build models on the relationship between a few variables and assume other variables that influence the study are unchanged
Ceteris paribus = other things being equal assumption
Describe the idea of economic optimisation.
Idea of optimisation:
- economic agent (household, government, firm) aims to maximize their utility, profits and social welfare respectively
- subject to certain constraints
- act rationally based on the marginal cost and marginal benefit of a good
What is the assumption of the rational expectation school of thought?
Economic agents are able to understand the future effects of government policy decisions to the point that such policies may become ineffective
What is the criticism regarding the scientific methodological approach used by many economists?
- Often difficult to realistically build models of the economy and the behaviour of its economic agents using structural equations and optimisation theory
- many models are based on assumptions that are unrealistic
- many models do not represent the real world
- critic: if policy prescriptions are based on these models it could lead to inaccurate and potentially hazardous courses of action regarding the economic well being
List different economic schools of thought.
- Classical
- New Classical
- Neo Classical
- Austrian
- Keynesian
- New Keynesian
- Post Keynesian
- institutional
- evolutionary
- radical
- Marxist
- feminist
- behavioural
What are categories of economic schools of thought?
How are the different from each other?
What is the criticised?
Mainstream:
- classical, new classical, Neo classical, austrian
- limited government intervention in the economy
- promote the idea that markets by themselves can correct any imbalances
- government intervention create inefficiencies
Heterodox:
- Keynesian, etc.
- markets are inefficient and they do bot correct themselves
- governments need to intervene to correct market failures arising from imperfect competition and imperfect information
What are implications for managers regarding the different economic schools of thought? Which analytical tools should they rely on?
- Understand underlying economic framework which an analytical tool is based
- Are the assumptions realistic?
- Are the assumptions relevant?
- Are they relevant to the Marco environment of the firm?
2
- understand the limitations of the data at the disposal
3
- be aware to only rely on quantitative data when making decisions
- focus on instincts as well
- Challenge: mix gut feeling with quantitive data
What is the critic of the main schools of thought in economics?
Critic with Mainstream:
- creating economic models are too simplistic and unrealistic
- models cannot describe how the economy works
- models are very useless at best and potentially dangerous if governments follow the prescriptions at worst
Critic with Heterodox:
- thinking lacks credibility because of its non-scientific methodology approach
- does not use mathematical equilibrium optimisation models
- qualitative research alone cannot explain the behaviour of firms, governments and individuals on a basis for valid recommendations
What is a business cycle?
Which phases are there?
- regular fluctuations in the economic activity
- represent macroeconomic instability
- economic prosperity tends to be followed by economic downturns
- Recession
- aggregate expenditure falls and unemployment rises
- GDP in two consecutive quarters are decreasing - Trough
- economic activity at the lowest point - Growth
- economic activity rises / recovers - Peak
- highest point right before it begins to fall
How can mangers deal with the business cycle?
1: Understand the terminology used to describe the macro conditions
2: Look for signs suggesting economic changes
3: economic indications that governments, central banks, and firms follow to gauge upcoming changes
4: Challenge of interpreting them correctly
What are economic indicators?
List them.
Economic indicators reflect the health of an economy
1 Labor market conditions
- initial claims for unemployment benefits
- employment rate and unemployment rate
- labor force participation rate
- long-term unemployment rate
2 Government finances
- budget deficit / surplus
- government debt
3 Surveys
- Surveys of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
- ECB Surverys
- Business Leader surveys
4 Inflation
- HICP (Harmonized index of consumer prices)
- CPI (Consumer Price Index)
- PPI (Producer Price Index)
5 National Income and trade
- GDP
- personal income
- BOP (Balance of Payments - Import/Export)
- exchange rates
6 Key expenditures
- construction spending
- motor vehicle sales
7 Manufacturing and inventories
- industrial production and capacity utilisation
- manufacturers shipments, inventories and orders
- wholesale and retail inventories
What policies should governments use to create conditions of macroeconomic stability?
1 Sustainable economic growth 2 Price stability (low inflation) 3 Full employment (low unemployment) 4 Balance of Payment equilibrium 6 Sustainable national debt (including low budget deficit) 7 More equitable distribution of income
What is monetary policy?
Focus on:
- supply of money
- interest rates
- availability of credit
Done by the central banks (FED, ECB, etc.)
Tool = OMO (Open Market Operations):
- buying and selling of securities –> changes in money supply
- changing the discount rate –> change interest rates of credit
- changing the reserve ration –> affect availability of credit
Describe OMO.
Who uses it?
What’s the underlying policy?
Tool = OMO (Open Market Operations):
- buying and selling of securities –> changes in money supply
- changing the discount rate –> change interest rates of credit
- changing the reserve ration –> affect availability of credit
Used by central banks such as ECB, FED, etc.
Part of monetary policy to affect money supply, interest rates and availability of credit.
What is tight/contractionary monetary policy?
Executed as part of the OMO of the central banks:
Aims to decrease inflationary pressures by:
- decreasing money supply growth
- increasing interest rates
- Decreasing money supply by selling securities to commercial banks or the general public
- Increasing interest rates = more expensive to borrow money
What is loose/expansionary monetary policy?
Executed as part of the OMO of the central banks:
Aims to increase or accommodate aggregate spending:
- increasing money supply
- decreasing interest rates
- Increasing money supply by buying securities from commercial banks or the general public
- Decrease interest rates = cheaper to borrow money
- Adopt non-traditional methods such as QE (quantitative easing) to stimulate bank lending and spending
Describe the term fiscal policy.
- Fiscal policy is the government’s policy with respect to the government spending and taxation
Government can
- increase spending and/or
- decrease taxes
Expansionary fiscal policy:
- Decreasing income and/or corporate taxes:
- leaves households with more money
- more profits for companies to reinvest
- focus on aggregate expenditure
- used to pull economy out of a recession
- mainstream economists: increase aggregate expenditure = short-term effect only since long-term results in higher inflation
- results in higher budget deficits = government borrowing + cloud out (reduce) private sector and business spending (reducing the effectiveness)
- Heterodox economists:
- strong disagree with the view of mainstream regarding expansionary fiscal policy
- will result in higher tax revenue + lower government spending on unemployment benefits
- help to minimise budget deficit
- interest rates do not have an effect on crowding out
Describe the supply-side policies.
Name six examples.
- Fiscal and monetary policies focus on the demand-side to influence aggregate spending
- Alternative approach to increase the supply-side
- Aims to increase aggregate supply by increasing efficiency in the product and resource market
Examples:
1 lowering the size and duration of unemployment benefits to motivate the unemployed to search for work
2 reducing minimum wages to create greater incentive for employers to hire workers
3 reducing marginal income tax to create incentive for works to work more hours
4 reduce trade union power
5 making information about jobs more accessible to unemployed
6 increase competition in the product markets
What is the macro goal that policy makers perceive as the most important?
- Does not exist and depends on the country
- If unemployment is high –> Employment rates
- If inflation is high –> inflation
Mainstream view:
- focused more on long-term growth that requires price stability and fiscal discipline
- full employment or low unemployment is not explicitly stated
- price stability ensures competitiveness which contributes to economic growth and smaller levels of unemployment
- appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to avoid excessively expansive fiscal policy
Heterodox view:
+ keeping inflation and fiscal deficits low will not lead to high growth and falling unemployment
+ inflation and sound fiscal finance counties can have high unemployment rates
+ effectiveness of monetary policy without expensionary fiscal policy will not work
What is demand?
Demand is the amount (quantity) of a good or service that buyers are willing and able to buy at different prices over a given period of time in a given market.
Describe the law of demand.
- As the price rises the demanded quantity falls and vice versa
- relationship between price and demand is inverse
- negative sloping curve
Income effect:
- effect on demand due to changes in the purchasing power of income that arises from a change in price
- if price of a good falls, an individual can afford to buy more
Substitution effect:
- if a price of a good changes, it becomes more expensive or cheaper compared to other products and services
- consumers will substitute the more expensive for a cheaper product
What are Non-Price determinants of demand?
Describe them.
1 Changes in tastes and preferences
- seasonal changes
- trends in fashion and technology
- advertising or publicity
2 Income levels
- people become unemployed = lower demand
- higher payments = higher demand = more buying power
3 Expectation of the future
- bleak future outlook; worried people = lower demand
- demand based on good: normal goods, inferior goods, superior goods
4 Prices of related goods
- substitutes = satisfy the same want
- demand for a product is positively related to the price of a substitute product
- price of substitute rises = demand for the other substitute good rises
- goods consumed together = complementary good
- demand for complementary goods are inversely related
5 Number of buyers in a market
- more buyers = more demand
What is the demand function?
Qd = f ( price of good, tastes and preferences, income levels, expectations, prices of related goods, number of buyers)
What is the difference between changes in demand vs. changes in quantity demanded?
Changes in Quantity demanded:
- changes when price changes
- changes in price (ceteris paribus) = change along the demand curve
Demand changes:
- tastes/preferences, income, expectations, number of buyers, related product changes
- shift of the whole demand curve (right or left)
- shift to right = increase in demand at any given price
- shift to right = decrease in demand at any given price
What is price elasticity of demand?
What is the result?
PED = measures how much the quantity demanded for a good changes when its price changes
PED = % change in Qd / % change in P
Result is always absolute
Result:
- PED > 1: percentage change in Qd is greater than the percentage change in price –> demand is price elastic
- PED < 1: percentage change in price is greater than the percentage change in Qd –> demand is price inelastic
What are factors influencing the PED?
Give an example for each.
1 Availability of close substitutes
- if price rises, some buyers will switch to substitutes
- if there are no substitutes it is difficult to switch = price inelastic
Example: demand for petrol = the same for each price = price inelastic due to the lack of substitutes
2 Proportion of income spent on the good
- if proportion of income spent is small = customers are less likely to significantly decrease the amount they buy
Example: Salt, butter, milk = very small amount of income = price inelastic goods
3 Luxury vs. necessities
- demand for necessities are price inelastic (people do not need to buy more or less of it)
- demand for luxury goods are price elastic (people could not go on holiday for a season and still survive)
- Habit or addition demand: very price inelastic since people buy the product anyways
4 Time
- demand for products tend to be inelastic in the short-term
- long term = elastic
Example: People need to buy petrol in the short-term; however long-term they could purchase alternative fuel tech
What types of goods can be differentiated regarding their relation to demand?
Inferior goods:
- negatively related to demand
- e.g. bus tickets: as income increases demand decreases and vice versa
Normal goods:
- positive relationship
- e.g. vacation/luxury items: as income decreases the demand decreases
Why is it important for managers to be aware of price elasticity of demand?
- Knowledge about product being inelastic means prices can be raised without worrying that demand will fall very much
- quantity demanded will be lower but total revenue will increase
- Knowledge about product being ELASTIC means prices can NOT be raised because quantity demanded will be lower than the price gain and total revenue will decrease
What is income elasticity of demand?
How is it calculated?
What does the results mean?
YED (income elasticity of demand) measures how much the demand changes when income levels change
YED = % change in demand / % change in income
YED < 1: Percentage change in demand is smaller than percentage change in income therefore demand is income inelastic
Results:
- Normal goods: YED = 0 bis 1 (demand increases when income increases)
- Inferior goods: YED < 1 (demand decreasing when income increases - e.g. bus ticket)
- Superior goods: YED > 1 (luxury good: demand increases a lot when income increases)
What is the implication for managers regarding the YED?
- important to understand the income elasticities of the products
- YED that are highly elastic (luxury goods) ca be affected significantly by a recession and decreases in buying power
- companies with YED elastic goods can diversify as part of preparation for a recession
What is XED?
How is it calculated?
What are the results?
Cross-price elasticity of demand (XED) measures how much the demand for one product changes when the price of another product changes
XED ab = % change in demand for good A / % change in price of good B
Result:
XED < 0: Two goods are substitute products (the higher the more substitutable)
XED > 0: Two goods are complementary products
Why is XED important for managers?
- understand how XED affects substitutes and complementary products
- if XED for a product is elastic with respect to competitors product = more attention needs to be paid to competitors pricing strategies
- if XED is elastic and competitor lowers prices, it will significantly influence the demand for the product
- price cuts, ads, promos, etc. can be an option
What is cross-sectional data?
Information obtained about variables for a specific time period
What is time-series data?
Information about a variable over a period of time
How can a Demand estimation be performed?
- Regression analysis appropriate data: - accurate - reliable - valid - data must be collected in a way to avoid potential issues (e.g. surveys, biases)
What data is required to properly estimate demand?
- dependant variable: e.g. demand for hotel rooms
independent variables:
- price per room
- income levels of potential customers
- preferences and tastes
- perceived safety and advertisement
- prices charged by other hotels
What is the coefficient of determination in a regression analysis?
R2 indicates the proportion of variations in the dependant variable that is explained by the explanatory (independent) variables in the regression equation.
e.g. R2 = 0.75
means 75 percent of the variations in the demand for hotels rooms can be account for by the variations in the independent variables
What is the F-value in a regression analysis?
F-Value is compared to a critical value to determine whether the entire regression equation is statistically significant based on the degrees of freedom and the designed significant level
F-value measures the significance of R2 (coefficient of determination)
What is the F-value in a regression analysis?
F-Value is compared to a critical value to determine whether the entire regression equation is statistically significant based on the degrees of freedom and the designed significant level
F-value measures the significance of R2 (coefficient of determination)
What are t-statistics in a regression analysis?
t-statistics (value) are determined by a t-test to determine the statistical significance of each regression coefficient
t-value = estimated coefficient / standard error of the coefficient
significance level of .05 is considered acceptable
= 95% confidence that the results obtained from the sample are representative
What could be potential issues in a regression analysis?
1 Misspecification of equation
- regression analysis is incorrectly specifying the form of the regression equation
- e.g. linear equation used when dependant and independent variables are not linearly related
- regression may also be inadequate in t hat It does not include important predictors (e.g. missing variables that are important for the outcome)
2 Multicollinearity
- two or ore independent variables are related to each other in a systematic way
- difficult to know if the independent variable affects the dependent variable
- biases the standard error reducing the t-values and making it more difficult to identify statistically significant independent variables and reject the null hypothesis
3 Identification problem
- equilibrium price and quantity in the market are simultaneously determined by demand and supply
- difficult to know if supply or demand had a bigger effect
- not identifying and resolving will lead to biased estimates
4 Problems with random errors
- every regression has random terms
- random term is assumed to have a normal distribution, a zero mean, and a constant variance
- variance of the random error is not constant and changes over time
- leads to prediction errors due to repeated overestimations or underestimations
What’s the definition of supply?
Supply is the amount (quantity) of a good or service that firms/producers/sellers are willing and able to offer for sale at different prices over a given period of time in a given market.
Describe the law of supply.
What is the implication for firms?
- Supply represents a positive relationship between to price and quantity supplied.
- Upward slowing curve of supply.
- As prices increase, a firm has a greater incentive and ability to produce and offer more for sale.
- Higher prices may allow to cover additional costs that it may have to incur in order to produce and sell more.
- higher prices = opportunity to earn higher profits, thus creating an incentive for firms to take on the risk associated with expansion and increasing output
What is meant by “extension of supply” and “contraction of supply”?
Expansion of supply:
- move up along the supply curve as prices rise (e.g. form 200$ to 250$)
- quantity of supply increases
Contraction of supply:
- move down along the supply curve as prices decrease (e.g. form 250$ to 200$)
- quantity of supply decreases
What are non-price determents of supply?
1 Weather
- agricultures output is highly affected by weather conditions
- good weather = higher output = shift of supply curve to the right
- bad weather = lower output = shift of supply curve to the left
2 Cost of production
- higher raw material prices (e.g. wages, electricity, etc.) will increase the total cost of production = firm needs to sell at higher prices = shift of supply curve to the left
- Advances in technology = more output = shift to right
- lower taxes or subsidies = lower cost for production = more output = shift to right
3 Expectations of the future
- optimistic outlook = more willing to invest to expand and produce more = shift to right
- negative outlook/expectations = produce less / reduce inventory = shift to left
4 Prices of other products or services by the seller
- if firm produces more than one product using the same inputs, it will have an incentive to produce more of the products that are in higher demand
- e.g. farmers = carrots are more profitable than potatoes = lower supply for potatoes = shift to the left of potatoes = shift to the right of carrots
5 Number of sellers in the market
- firms enter the market to produce and compete = more output = shift to the right
- existing firms go bankrupt = shift to the left
What is Price elasticity of supply?
How is it calculated?
How can the results be interpreted?
Price elasticity of supply measures how much the quantity supplied of a good changes when its prices change.
PES = % change in quantity supplied / % change in Price
Results:
- PES < 1 = percentage change in Qs smaller than percentage change in P = supply is inelastic
- PES > 1 = percentage change in Qs greater than percentage change in P = supply is elastic
Why is it important for managers to understand the price elasticity of supply?
PES of their products and inputs very important
- if demand rises but supply is relatively inelastic = firm will not be able to increase the output fast enough to satisfy the demand = loss of customers, sales and profits
What are determinants of price elasticity of supply?
1 Storage and costs of storage
- prices rise = use stocked quantity = more profit = elastic supply
- if products cannot be stored (e.g. vegetables = supply is relatively price inelastic (short term)
2 Production capacity
- if company is not producing at full production capacity = fast increase in supply possible = elastic supply
- firm at fully production capacity already = inelastic supply = no increases possible in the short term
3 Time
- short term: if prices rise firms may not be able to increase supplied amount
- long term: increases in supply are much more likely (new machines, facilities, production capacities)
How are prices determined?
- Price mechanisms based on supply and demand
- Equilibrium between Qs and Qd is the price
Supply surplus:
- supplied quantity is higher than demanded quality
- firms will lower the price
- lower price will lead to increase in Qd
- lower price will reduce incentive to produce as much = lower Qs
Supply shortage:
- quantity demanded in greater than quantity supplied
- excess demand = higher prices for sellers possible
- increase of sellers in the market = higher Qs
How can changes in non-price determinants affect demand and the market equilibrium?
1 Successful advertising
2 changes in tastes and preferences in favor of a good
3 increase in income (effect on normal goods)
4 increase in the price of a substitute good
5 increase in the number of potential buyers
6 consumer expectations are optimistic / expected price increase
- -> Demand increases
- -> Demand curve shifts right
- -> Price Equilibrium and Quantity Equilibrium RISE
What happens to the market equilibrium (Qe and Pe) if the following happens?
1 The customers changed the preferences and now prefer another good of the good of the company
2 Economy is in a recession and the income decreases (normal good)
3 The company produces swimwear and winter is approaching
1 Lower demand for the product of the company = shift of demand to the left = Pe decreases; Qe decreases
2 Lower overall demand of the customers due to lower income (cannot afford as much as before) = shift of demand to the left = Pe decreases; Qe decreases
3 seasonal business = demand temporarily shifts to the left = Pe decreases; Qe decreases