Macroeconomics Real World Examples Flashcards
UK Macroeconomic Objectives
Growth - Strong, Sustained, Sustainable - GDP and GDP/capita
Unemployment - Low Unemployment, Full Employment - Labour Force Survey (LFS)
Inflation - Low and Stable; 2% +/-1% - CPl and CPIH
Trade - Balanced - Current Account of the Balance of
Payments
Distribution of Income - Fair - Gini Coefficient
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - Low Interest Rates
1) In the UK interest rates stand at historic lows of 0.1% to boost consumption and AD given the pandemic economic shock and uncertain economic outlook with Brexit.
2) In the Eurozone economy interest rates are at 0% to stimulate consumption, AD, and economic growth, aiding recovery from the pandemic-driven recession.
3) Japanese interest rates are officially at -0.1% to promote consumption and fight against consistent bouts of deflation.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - High Interest Rates
1) Turkey has been grappling with high rates of inflation since the end of 2019 driven mainly by a very weak currency. Confidence in the economy fell further in 2020 as Covid plunged the economy into a deep recession with the Lira in free fall. To combat inflation and to stabilize the currency, the central bank has been forced to increase interest rates multiple times in 2020 from 4% in September all the way to 15% in November with the potential for further rises despite the ongoing recession.
2) In Argentina interest rates have soared to between 38% and 78% as the country grapples with a deep recession caused by a collapse in the Peso and very high inflation rates. To combat inflation and a very weak peso, authorities have had to hike interest rates implementing interest rate floors.
3) The US Federal Reserve had been increasing interest rates regularly from 2016 to early 2019 in a bid to normalize rates after the Financial Crisis. More recently, given negative growth, rates have been cut.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - High Consumer Confidence
1) Strong economic recovery from Coronavirus lockdowns has led to rapid increases in consumer confidence in China, back to pre-pandemic levels, with consumers willing to spend on big-ticket items.
2) Record low rates of unemployment and rising real wages allowed consumer confidence in the USA to hit an 18-year high in 2018, remaining strong throughout 2019 but trade wars and the economic devastation of Coronavirus have led to consumer confidence levels falling rapidly ni 2020.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - Low Consumer Confidence
1) In the Eurozone, consumer confidence has taken a sharp downturn given the impact of Covid restrictions on incomes and unemployment as well as slower export growth across the bloc due to weak external demand, where trade is highly significant for growth, employment and incomes.
2) Consumer confidence in the UK has been extremely low throughout 2020 for similar Covid-driven reasons as in the Eurozone but also due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of Brexit on macroeconomic performance and personal finances.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - High Asset Prices (Positive Wealth Effect)
1) In the UK there is a very strong correlation between house price growth and consumption. The rate of house price rises has been strong in 2020 allowing for a positive wealth effect.
2) The Chinese Stock Market has been performing strongly throughout 2020, ending the year with a value greater than peaks ni 2015 due to the strength of economic recovery ni the country.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - Low Asset Prices (Negative Wealth Effect)
1) Stock markets in the UK, USA, and Japan experienced
huge declines in March 2020 as Coronavirus lockdowns were
imposed creating a huge economic shock and drastically reducing business profitability. With this, share prices crashed, reducing the wealth and thus consumption of those holding shares. Towards the end of 2020, stock markets in these countries are recovering, though still far below pre-crisis peaks, with growth rates improving and vaccines to be used to control both the spread of the virus and further economic damage into 2021.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - Low Household Indebtedness
1) German household indebtedness is extremely low for a Western economy at only 55% of GDP equivalent to just over $2,100 per household (excluding mortgage debt). It is engrained in German culture to spend mainly from accumulated savings rather than reliance on debt to fund consumption.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - High Household Indebtedness
1) Economies like the UK and the USA are highly reliant on credit and debt to drive consumption, aggregate demand, and economic growth. In the UK, household indebtedness stands at 86% of GDP equivalent to approximately £12,800 per household excluding mortgage debt. For many who face a debt mountain, this will encourage more saving than spending.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - High Real Disposable Income
1) Economic growth in China has been strong throughout 2020 with a quick recovery from Coronavirus lockdowns and a surge ni exports allowing real disposable incomes to rise sharply.
2) The South Korean economy has also been performing well backed by a strong trade surplus boosting AD, growth, and real incomes.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - Low Real Disposable Income
1) Coronavirus lockdowns, continued restrictions, and further virus waves have badly damaged economic growth and employment in the UK, USA, and Eurozone resulting in lower real disposable incomes despite a variety of policies aimed at protecting jobs and income.
2) The economic crisis in Venezuela has led to significant reductions in real disposable income, falling from a peak of approximately $18,000 GDP/capita (PPP) in 2013 to around $6,000 GDP/capita (PPP) in 2020.
3) Nigeria and Zambia are reliant on the export of oil and copper respectively for growth and development. Both countries have been driven into deep recessions with collapses in oil and copper prices due to crumbling global demand throughout 2020. As a result, real disposable incomes in both countries have fallen considerably.
Determinants of AD (Consumption) - Low Income Tax Rates
1) In 2018, Donald Trump announced income tax reductions in the USA on 5 of the 7 tax bands as denoted by the table on the right-hand side. The new, lower percentage rates would remain up until 2025 and the actual income amounts in each threshold would rise by inflation every year preventing fiscal drag.
The intention of this policy was to raise real disposable incomes and
boost consumer spending resulting in consistent and high growth rates in the economy.
2) Since the conservative party took power in 2010, income tax rates in the UK have been falling consistently year on year in a variety of ways. The personal income tax-free allowance has increased from £6,500 in 2010 to £12,500 in 2020 meaning basic rate taxpayers pay £1,205 less tax than in 2010.
The income threshold before the 40% higher rate of tax si due has increased from £37,400 ni 2010 to £50,000 ni 2020 with 1 million fewer taxpayers ni this bracket than ni 2015. The tax rate of the highest income earners ni the country was also lowered ni 2013 from 50% to 45%.
3) In 2020, the Australian government brought forward income tax cuts to promote economic recovery, widening the upper limit on both the 19% and 32.5% tax bands to benefit al income earners.
Determinants of AD (Investment) - Low Interest Rates
1) With low-interest rates in the UK, Eurozone, and Japan, theory would suggest that investment would rise given the lower cost of borrowing for firms looking to invest. However low business confidence in al three countries has offset this factor, leading to low levels of investment.
Determinants of AD (Investment) - High Interest Rates
1) Turkey has been grappling with high rates of inflation since the end of 2019 driven mainly by a very weak currency. Confidence in the economy fell further in 2020 as Covid plunged the economy into a deep recession with the Lira in free fall. To combat inflation and to stabilize the currency, the central bank has been forced to increase interest rates multiple times in 2020 from 4% in September all the way to 15% in November with the potential for further rises despite the ongoing recession.
2) In Argentina interest rates have soared to between 38% and 78% as the country grapples with a deep recession caused by a collapse in the Peso and very high inflation rates. To combat inflation and a very weak peso, authorities have had to hike interest rates implementing interest rate floors.
Determinants of AD (Investment) - High Business Confidence
1) Business confidence in China is high given expectations of strong economic growth, employment, and improving overseas demand. Once more, China has entered more regional trade blocs such as the RCEP with further hopes of improved US trade relations al raising Chinese expected business profitability.
Determinants of AD (Investment) - Low Business Confidence
1) Brexit uncertainty in the UK has dampened business
confidence markedly ever since the vote to leave the EU in 2016. UK businesses remain
very unsure over supply chains, trade arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, and the potential state of both the UK and Eurozone economies. Couple this with the devastating impact of the Covid-driven recession, it is clear that the incentive to invest has reduced considerably.
2) Brexit uncertainty and Coronavirus consequences are also impacting negatively on business confidence in the Eurozone where firms are unsure of potential hits to economic growth and profitability. Strict lockdowns and the profit hit of businesses only opening at limited capacity have also drastically reduced business confidence in the USA and Australia.
Determinants of AD (Investment) - Low Corporation Tax
1) Since the conservative party came into power in 2010, corporation tax rates in the UK have fallen significantly from 28% in 2010 to 19% in 2020.
2) In 2018 as part of wide-ranging tax cuts across the US economy, Donald Trump cut corporation tax from 35% to 21% to promote more domestic capital investment, and FDI and to encourage US firms operating outside the country to come back to the US.
3) Ireland has one of the lowest corporation tax rates in the Western world at only 12.5%. It is for this reason that they are able to attract substantial inflows of foreign direct investment as well as strongly promote domestic investment.
4) In September 2019, India cut its base corporation tax rate from 30% to 2% to stimulate investment, growth, and employment in the country.
Determinants of AD (Investment) - High Corporation Tax
1) France has a high corporation tax rate of 31% for large companies and 28% for small companies; figures that are not hugely surprising as the French government continues to battle regular budget deficits and very high government debt levels.
Determinants of AD (Government Spending) - Government Spending Stimulus
1) In September 2020, France unveiled a huge €100bn stimulus package consisting mainly of loans and grants to businesses hit hardest by the Covid pandemic but also government spending on renewable energy, job support, and infrastructure to promote both short and long-run growth.
2) To support employment and promote strong economic recovery, Germany enacted a fiscal stimulus worth €130bn consisting of financial aid to households and greater government spending on childcare services, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure.
3) From March up to the end of 2020, the UK government spent approximately £300bn on a variety of policies such as wage subsidies, infrastructure, and welfare to boost growth and protect jobs.
4) The USA and Japan enacted some of the largest fiscal stimulus packages in the world in 2020 to fight back against Coronavirus recessions, worth 12% and 20% of GDP for the US and Japan respectively. Both countries favored more direct use of public money by providing payouts to households and businesses whilst also increasing payment thresholds for welfare benefits.
Determinants of AD (Government Spending) - Austerity (Government Spending Cuts)
1) From 2010 to 2019, the conservative party in the UK
adopted an austerity policy ni the form of government spending cuts to reduce the level of annual public borrowing (the budget deficit). Government spending cuts
have focussed mainly on government departments, local councils, police services, defense, and welfare.
2) Greece was reliant on bailout funds from the IMF and the Eurozone starting in 2010 to avoid complete economic collapse but with these emergency funds came forced austerity demands, including deep spending cuts. Between 2010 and 2015, government spending on healthcare fell by 50% and education spending fell by 20%, furthermore, Greek governments reduced employment in the public sector, reduced public sector wages, and cut spending on pensions.
Other examples of countries that implemented austerity policy through cuts to government spending; 3) Spain 4) Italy 5) Portugal 6) Ireland 7) France
Determinants of AD (Net Exports) - Weak Exchange Rate
Examples of countries with weak currencies which ni theory could increase net exports and boost aggregate demand by making exports cheaper and imports dearer; 1) Argentina (Peso) 2) Nigeria (Naira) 3) UK (Pound) 4) Turkey (Lira) 5) USA (Dollar) 6) South Africa (Rand)
Determinants of AD (Net Exports) - Strong Exchange Rate
1) The Chinese Yuan has strengthened against major currencies in 2020 due to relatively higher interest rates and the strong performance of the Chinese economy, theoretically harming net exports.
Determinants of Short Run Aggregate Supply
1) The global prices of oil, gas, and metals have been falling throughout 2020; therefore for countries reliant on oil, gas, and metals as an input to production such as the UK, this has helped reduce costs of production significantly thus shifting SRAS to the right.
2) Business taxes affect the costs of production for all firms in an economy thus shifting SRAS. In 2020, the UK cut VAT for the hospitality and tourism industries, and Germany cut VAT across the entire economy from 19% to 16% helping to reduce costs of production for firms thus shifting SRAS to the right.
In India, large-scale reform to the goods and services tax (GST) meant harmonization of tax rates across states and in many cases a reduction of tax rates for various goods and services, reducing costs of production for firms thus shifting SRAS to the right.
The following countries have all experienced increases in VAT (sales tax) with SRAS shifting left as a result; the UK (VAT increase from 17.5% to 20% in 2010), Japan (sales tax increase from 5% to 8% in 2014
and an increase from 8% to 10% in 2019), UAE (implementing VAT for the first time at 5% in 2018), South Africa (sales tax increased from 14% to 15% in 2018) and Saudi Arabia (VAT increase from 5% to 15% in 2020).
3) Countries with weak exchange rates face dearer imports and therefore it becomes more expensive for firms to import raw materials increasing costs of production and shifting SRAS to the left as seen in the UK for example. However, if the currency depreciates significantly, a large shift to the left of SRAS can result in stagflation, the phenomenon of high inflation with negative economic growth as is
currently being seen in 1) Nigeria (Naira) 2) Turkey (Lira) 3) Venezuela (Bolivar) 4) Argentina (Peso)
Causes of Recession - Demand Side Shocks
1) The Coronavirus pandemic in 2020 forced many countries to shut down large parts of their economy and even when open, only allowing businesses to run at limited capacity. Despite support packages
and policies implemented, growth and employment rates plummeted with deep recessions around the world, prolonged by further waves of infections and consumer fears of venturing out to spend.
2) The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 led to a widespread banking sector collapse in various countries; USA, UK, Ireland, Real Greece, Spain, Italy, Iceland, and Cyprus as
well as many others. This led to a huge fall in consumption and investment triggering large recessions in all these countries with some like Greece, Iceland, and Cyprus going bankrupt and reliant on IMF bailouts.
3) As well as suffering a banking crisis in 2008/9 the US economy also suffered a huge housing market crash with prices falling by almost 30% between 2007 and 2009. Stock markets also crashed losing 50% of their value triggering huge reductions in wealth and with that, big declines in AD.
4) In 2014, the Russian central bank made a dramatic overnight move to increase interest rates from 10.5% to 17% to combat both high inflation and steep declines in the value of the Ruble. This sharp and sudden increase caused a collapse of consumption and investment triggering a deep recession in the country. Interest rate rises for similar reasons were seen in Brazil in 2015 with a recession the consequence soon after.
5) The collapse of commodity prices in 2020 as a result of falling global demand from the Covid crisis drove countries reliant on the export of primary commodities like Nigeria, Angola, and Zambia into recession with huge falls ni export revenues from oil (Nigeria/Angola) and copper (Zambia).