Macroeconomics Application Flashcards

1
Q

Which economies have recently grappled with high inflation?

A

Most of the developed world e.g. USA and UK, although this was particularly an issue for Türkiye and Argentina. Inflation soared in excess of 100% in Argentina.
Interest rates in Türkiye were increased beyond 40%.

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2
Q

Which nations experienced high consumer confidence post pandemic?

A

India, Indonesia, Qatar.

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3
Q

Which country has low and which has high household indebtedness?

A

Germany has low household indebtedness, at only 56% of GDP.
The UK has high household indebtedness, at 90% of GDP.

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4
Q

What is an example of income tax reductions?

A

In 2018, Donald Trump announced Federal income tax reductions in the USA on 5 of the 7 bands.
From January 2024, the UK government cut the main National Insurance rate from 12% to 10%, in an attempt to boost real disposable income.

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5
Q

What is an example of high taxation?

A

Higher earners in Scotland will face increases in income tax in several ways.
In 2013, France introduced a tax of 75% for anyone earning over a million euros. However, they were forced to reverse the policy in 2015 due to millionaires threatening to or actually leaving France.

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6
Q

What is an example of low corporation tax?

A

Ireland’s corporation tax is 12.5%.

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7
Q

What is an example of high corporation tax?

A

The UK increased corporation tax from 19% to 25% in 2023 to raise government revenue.

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8
Q

What is an example of government stimulus spending?

A

From March to the end of 2020, the UK spent approximately £300 billion on a variety of policies to boost growth and protect jobs.

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9
Q

What are some statistics that outline the austerity policy followed by Greece after the 2008 recession?

A

Between 2010 and 2015:
Gov. spending on healthcare fell by 50% and gov. spending on education fell by 20%.

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10
Q

Why did SRAS shift to the left 2022-3 for many countries?

A

The global prices of oil, gas, electricity and agricultural commodities rose dramatically, thus input prices went up and hence costs of production rose.

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11
Q

What is an example of a demand side shock?

A

Covid pandemic, GFC (2008), high interest rates (2023) have caused recessions in the Eurozone.

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12
Q

What is an example of a supply side shock causing a recession?

A

Germany entered recession in 2023, largely due to the dramatic increases in oil, energy and food prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Japan raised sales tax from 5% to 8% in 2019 which shocked the country into recession.

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13
Q

What are some applied examples of limitations of GDP growth?

A
  • Large informal sectors in Italy and Greece, approx 25%.
  • Environmental costs associated with growth in India and China, air pollution and resource degradation
  • Unequal distribution of income in countries such as Nigeria and Botswana. Income inequality in the USA is one of the highest in the world.
  • Norway and Switzerland’s currency are overvalued, makes comparing GDP per capita difficult
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14
Q

Which country illustrates the costs and benefits of growth?

A

China, many costs of growth e.g. environmental but the benefits outweigh the costs, e.g. living standards.

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15
Q

What are some applied problems with using CPI to measure inflation in the UK?

A

i) No individual represents the ‘average person’
ii) Does not consider shrinkflation
iii) Housing costs represent an increasingly large expense, they are not included on standard CPI
iv) Basket updates could be viewed as too slow

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16
Q

What is an example of demand-pull inflation?

A

During rampant Chinese growth (2000-2007), inflation peaked at 9%.

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17
Q

What is an example of malignant deflation?

A

Japan has battled deflation continuously since the 1990s.

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18
Q

What is an example of benign deflation?

A

Between 2015 and 2016, the UK inflation rate hit a low of -0.1% due to falling oil and commodity prices. It did not feed through into expectations, so simply benefited consumers.

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19
Q

What are applied examples of the costs of inflation?

A

i) Higher than target UK inflation has eroded purchasing power.
ii) Negative real interest rates have eroded savings in the UK
iii) Export dominant countries such as Brazil have struggled with inflation rates above 10%, as it has harmed export competitiveness.
iv) Rates of inflation in Argentina above 100% have led to damaging wage price spirals
v) Income tax bands frozen until 2029, fiscal drag in the UK

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20
Q

What is the margin of uncertainty with the Labour Force Survey in the UK?

A

+/- 3%

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21
Q

In the UK (2023), what percentage of those between 16-64 were economically inactive?

A

21.1%

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22
Q

How many people were working part time in the UK in 2023?

A

8.5 million

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23
Q

Why is immobility of labour so high in India?

A

Many young people trained for jobs where there are few vacancies. There is a high demand for engineering workers but current skills do not match.

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24
Q

What is the natural rate of unemployment in France and Spain?

A

6-8% in France
12% in Spain
Strict hiring and firing laws are responsible, hiring low skilled workers is a risk.

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25
Q

What has been the impact of minimum wages in both UK and Germany?

A

They have not reduced employment.
Employers have chosen to absorb the costs rather than lose staff.

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26
Q

What were the costs of unemployment in Greece?

A

With high unemployment rates over 10%, a large chunk of government revenue is directed to dealing with the social costs of unemployment, poverty, crime, mental health conditions. Problems of hysteresis as well.

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27
Q

How did the Bank of England respond to the coronavirus pandemic?

A

They cut interest rates from 0.75% to 0.1% and issued £450 billion of QE. However, consumer and business confidence were so low that these policies had little impact. Instead, some have warned that they have contributed to the current inflation problems.

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28
Q

Which countries have used negative interest rates?

A

Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark

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29
Q

How much did government spend on fiscal stimulus during Covid?

A

£400 billion, which was borrowed. Spend on furlough scheme, cuts to VAT, Eat Out to Help.
However, national debt is now around 100% of GDP.

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30
Q

What was Japan’s fiscal stimulus during Covid?

A

$1.1 trillion dollars.
Its debt to GDP ratio is over 200%.

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31
Q

What did unemployment peak at during Greece’s austerity?

A

25%
Output has contracted by 25% since 2009.

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32
Q

What was the impact of austerity on UK budget deficits?

A

They fell from 10% in 2009 to 2% in March 2020. Debt reduction enabled the huge fiscal stimulus seen during Covid. Some argue that debt to GDP could have fallen further if government had borrowed to stimulate growth, as interest rates were very low.

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33
Q

What are the changes to Scotland’s income tax bands from 2024?

A

The top rate will increase from 47% to 48%. A new 45% tax rate will be introduced. Other tax bands will remain frozen. Government aims to raise government revenue to fund public services. Laffer Curve? People move to England?

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34
Q

What are examples of supply side policies in the UK?

A

i) The investment tax free allowance has permanently increased five fold from £200,000 to £1 million. Businesses that invest in plant and capital machinery are able to to claim back up to £1m from its taxable profits.
ii) Personal allowance has been raised from £6500 in 2010 to £12,570. This could encourage the economically inactive to join the workforce.
iii) 30 hours of government funded free childcare for children between 9 months and 4 years old, if both parents are still working.
iv) £28.8bn of funding between 2020-5 to improve road infrastructure.

35
Q

What were the impact of Trump’s tariffs on China?

A

US firms like General Motors and Cocoa Cola lowered profit forecasts and raised prices of key consumer goods. Growth in the US economy slowed in 2019 as a result of these tariffs. The trade deficit with China actually widened to $420 billion at the end of 2018. Some economists have suggested that these tariffs have led to higher inflation rates in 2022-3. China suffered similar costs but also growth slowdowns.

36
Q

What is roughly the UK’s current account deficit as a percentage of GDP?

A

4%

37
Q

What are some concerns about the UK’s current account deficit?

A

i) Pressure to run a financial account surplus by issuing debt
ii) Structural problems at its root
iii) It rose throughout 2023 despite a weak pound
iv) Possible currency crisis?

38
Q

Name three countries which have concerning current account deficits?

A

i) UK
ii) Sri Lanka
iii) Türkiye

39
Q

What is an example of a country with a current account surplus?

A

China. Its current account surplus peaked at around 10% of GDP in 2007. It has been driven by an enormous surplus in trade in goods.
Some issues include a reliance on export-led growth, as they suffered greatly in the pandemic. When trade numbers disappoint, government has had to borrow money to spend in the economy, as domestic Chinese consumption is limited. Some have criticised the methods used by China to achieve its current account surplus.

40
Q

By what percentage did the pound fall by after Brexit?

A

15%

41
Q

What was the impact of the Brexit devaluation?

A

Very limited benefits of Brexit devaluation. Export revenues only rose slightly, expenditure on imports rose. Immediately after the depreciation, the UK’s current account deficit widened from 5.2% to 6.3% of GDP, demonstrating the J curve effect. It improved to 3% in 2017 before returning to 4.6% in 2019.

42
Q

What is the PED of UK imports and exports?

A

UK exports are price inelastic as services tend to be insensitive to price and a weak manufacturing base cannot take advantage of a depreciation of the pound.
UK imports are highly price inelastic, as many are necessities such as food, drink, oil, clothing, raw materials.

43
Q

Why has the US exchange rate strengthened in 2023?

A

i) Impressive macro performance
ii) High interest rates- hot money inflows
iii) Economic uncertainty- US dollar is the world reserve currency

44
Q

What is an example of a fixed exchange rate?

A

Denmark’s Krone has been fixed against the Euro since 1999 to promote economic stability. Currency reserves and interest rates are used to maintain the peg.

45
Q

What is an example of a managed exchange rate?

A

The Chinese Yuan. It is generally viewed as a fixed exchange rate, however devaluations have been common since 2015 to boost export competitiveness and hence economic growth.

46
Q

Explain two countries which can be viewed as winners of globalisation.

A

i) South Korea
GDP per capita in the 1960s was $153, while now it is approx $30,000 and top 20 for HDI
ii) Vietnam
Embraced markets and trade liberalisation after the Vietnam War. It has become a large exporter of textiles, growth rates 5-7% since 2010.

47
Q

Which countries could be considered globalisation losers?

A

i) Sub-Saharan African countries have seen the slowest rate of HDI growth since the 1980s. They have fallen into traps mentioned in the ‘Bottom Billion’.
ii) Those on low incomes in developed countries such as UK, USA, Canada. Many have lost jobs in manufacturing and become structurally unemployed.

48
Q

How has China embraced market based development?

A

From 1978 onwards, China embraced the free market and liberalised trade. It developed large comparative advantages in manufacturing, largely due to its low cost labour, and productive workforce. HDI scores have improved as government has spent on improving health and education.

49
Q

What are the barriers to development that remain in China?

A

i) Significant environmental concerns
ii) Wide income inequalities (urban vs rural)
iii) Excessive state control of industry
iv) China remains reliant on exports and government spending to deliver growth. It needs to see rises in domestic consumption.

50
Q

How has India been able to develop?

A

From the 1970s onwards, the country opened to free market policies and trade liberalisation. Growth peaked at 10%, extremely high. They diversified into manufacturing and services such as IT. Incomes have risen and rapid progress has been made in HDI scores.

51
Q

What are the barriers to development that remain in India?

A

i) Significant environmental concerns
ii) Wide income inequalities (urban vs rural)
iii) State corruption and excessive bureaucracy
iv) Lack of inclusive growth with regards to girls education and women entering the workforce
v) Limited tax revenues due to a cash dominated economy

52
Q

How has Mauritius successfully developed?

A

Liberalising trade and reducing government involvement in the economy. Mauritius does not have a wealth of primary commodities but found growth initially from the export of sugarcane, then they diversified into textiles, finance, tourism. They have created a highly educated workforce. Market reforms and a strong, stable government critical to success.

53
Q

How has Botswana achieved development success?

A

Comparative advantage in the production and export of gem diamonds, as well as tourism. Government has been prudent and reliable with the fiscal benefits.

54
Q

Why has development failed in Nigeria?

A

They have suffered from the ‘resource curse’. Their economy is over-specialised on oil. They also suffer from corruption and income inequality.

55
Q

How has Ethiopia achieved limited development through interventionist policies?

A

Aid has been used to relatively good effect, spent on education, infrastructure, clean water. However, quality of life remains low, allegations of gov. corruption.

56
Q

How has Rwanda partially benefitted from interventionist policies?

A

A strong government poured money into education, health and infrastructure. However, this did come at the loss of personal freedom and there are concerns about long term growth.

57
Q

How much output is Zimbabwe estimated to lose to corruption each year?

A

$1 billion

58
Q

What are Keynesians objections to the quantity theory of money?

A

i) The velocity of circulation is not constant.
ii) If there is spare capacity in the economy, an increase in the money supply may increase real income rather than the price level.
iii) Reverse causation?

59
Q

What is Goodhart’s Law?

A

The more successful the central bank appears to be in controlling the money supply, the more likely it is that other financial assets regarded previously as Near Money, outside the existing definition and system of control, will take the function of medium of exchange and become money.

60
Q

Why did Northern Rock fail? (2007)

A

Business Model: It was heavily reliant on short-term borrowing to finance mortgage lending.
Access to credit dried up causing liquidity problems.
Risky Lending
Housing Market Downturn
Lack of Diversification

61
Q

Why did Silicon Valley bank fail?

A

They had invested a large amount of bank deposits in long term US treasuries. When interest rates rose, treasury values fell.
Long-term nature of investments meant SVB did not have the liquidity to satisfy customers withdrawing deposits as economic factors hit the tech sector. They started selling bonds at a significant loss. Announced capital raising on social media, sparked panic. Shut down shortly after, FDIC guaranteed deposits.

62
Q

What was the value of government bailouts after the GFC?

A

£137 billion

63
Q

What was the value of the fine handed to Deutsche Bank by the FCA over its role in the LIBOR scandal? (2015)

A

£227 million

64
Q

What was the LIBOR scandal (2012)?

A

LIBOR is a benchmark interest rate used to set the cost of borrowing for a wide range of products e.g. mortgages, credit cards, student loans. Evidence emerged that some banks were manipulating the LIBOR rate to improve their own financial position.

65
Q

What did the Basel Committee recommend for the Liquidity Ratio?

A

100% liquidity to cover liabilities in 30 days or less.

66
Q

What does the PRA expect for the liquidity ratio?

A

100% as well

67
Q

What is the reserve requirement in the USA?

A

10%

68
Q

What did the Basel Committee recommend for the capital ratio?

A

8% minimum

69
Q

Why did the Basel Committee prefer ‘Leverage Ratio’ over ‘Capital Ratio’?

A

It was a more comprehensive measure.

70
Q

What did the Basel Committee recommend for the Leverage Ratio?

A

3%

71
Q

What has the PRA set the Leverage ratio at?

A

3.25%

72
Q

What is Say’s Law?

A

Supply will generate its own demand.

73
Q

Why was inflation so high in the 1970s (UK)?

A

Cost-push and demand-pull. Rising oil prices and rising wages.

74
Q

What did inflation reach at its peak in the 1970s (UK)?

A

14%

75
Q

What is a reasonable estimate for the MPC? (UK)

A

It is probably not higher than 0.2. High propensity to tax, save or import.

76
Q

In 2008, the pound lost 25% of its value. What happened as a result?

A

The current account actually widened, low demand for UK exports, high demand for UK imports.

77
Q

What was the total amount of Quantitative Easing?

A

£895 billion

78
Q

When was Quantitative Easing rolled out in the UK?

A

After the 2008 recession, after the 2016 Brexit vote, and in response to the pandemic.

79
Q

What is the poverty trap related to Universal Credit and free school meals?

A

Above £7400 a family loses free school meals which can cost approximately £1300.

80
Q

What is an example that demonstrates that growth is not sufficient for development?

A

Qatar is in the top 5 for GDP per capita but only in the 40s for development.

81
Q

What are the top 3 countries for HDI?

A

1) Switzerland
2) Norway
3) Iceland

82
Q

What are the bottom three countries for HDI?

A

189) Niger
190) Chad
191) South Sudan

They are all landlocked, have struggled with conflict and primary product dependence.

83
Q

Where is South Sudan on the corruption index?

A

It is the third most corrupt country in the world.