M10: Prospective Modelling and Scenario Development

Question 1

How can a transformation be characterized?

Answer 1

• Transdisciplinary
• Complex and dynamic
  
  • -> Spatial (e.g., cities, countries, the world)
  • -> Organizational (e.g., households, sectors, nations)
  • -> Temporal (e.g., near to distant future)

Question 2

What does prospective modelling mean and which type of MFA does it include?

Answer 2

Expects that something will happens in the future.

Dynamic MFAs

Question 3

What is the opposite to prospective modelling and which type of MFA does it include?

Answer 3

Retrospective modelling.

Stationary MFA/SFA.

Question 4

What are the features of prospective modelling?

Answer 4

In general, prospective models are:

• -> Able to capture different spatial, organizational, and temporal scales,
• -> Able to determine future consequences of decisions in the present and past,
• -> Adherence to generally accepted scientific principles,
• -> Ability to deal with the uncertainty of future development.

Question 5

What are the scenario properties in prospective modelling?

Answer 5

In general, all scenarios:

• -> connect descriptions of the future to the present through a series of causal links.
• -> are defined by driving forces (quantitative or qualitative).
• -> imply a set of indicators(usually quantitative but sometimes qualitative).
• -> are (or should be) plausible, internally consistent, and interesting to their target audience.
• -> are defined over time, in space, and thematically.

Question 6

What are the different kinds of scenario typologies?

Answer 6

Forecasting: Predict most likely future.
Explorative: Explore alternative futures.
Backcasting: Assess feasibility of desirable future.

Question 7

There are different ways of generating ideas for scenario development and of integrating them in a mathematical model.

Answer 7

Generating: Surveys, workshops, Delphi Methods.

Integrating: Time-series analysis, explanatory modelling, optimization modelling.